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題名:改革開放以來中國城鎮化的演進歷程、特徵與方向--基於人口、經濟與制度視角
書刊名:城市規劃
作者:喬藝波
出版日期:2020
卷期:2020(1)
頁次:44-51
主題關鍵詞:人口結構經濟模式制度安排中國城鎮化Population structureEconomic modelInstitutional arrangementsChinaUrbanization
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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城鎮化的演進歷程深受人口結構、經濟模式和制度安排的影響。通過對改革開放以來中國人口結構和經濟模式的概覽性考察,指出人口結構在未來10年內將發生人口機會窗口關閉和"人口拐點"來臨兩大結構性轉變,經濟模式正從出口和投資驅動轉變為創新和內需驅動。結合政治經濟體制的改革歷程,在回顧中國城鎮化進程的基礎上,指出從雙軌漸進改革下的"自下而上城鎮化",到市場經濟體制改革下的"流動城鎮化",再到全面深化改革下的"新型城鎮化",城鄉之間的制度性壁壘逐漸被打破,城鄉居民權利不斷趨于均等化,異質的城鄉二元結構不斷向同質的城鄉一元結構演進;進而指出,中國城鎮化進程未來有陷入"流動中的停滯"狀態的趨勢,并提出針對性的政策建議。
The process of urbanization is deeply influenced by population structure, economic model, and institutional arrangements. Through an overview of China’s population structure and economic model since the reform and opening up, it is pointed out that the population structure is undergoing two structural changes, that is, the closure of the "demographic window" and the forthcoming "demographic turning point," and the economic model is shifting from export and investment driven to innovation and domestic demand driven. Combining with the process of political and economic system reform since the reform and opening up, on the basis of reviewing the evolution of China’s urbanization, it points out that, from the "bottom-up urbanization" during the period of double-track gradual reform, to the "mobile urbanization" during the period of market economic system reform, and then to the "new urbanization" under the context of comprehensively deepening reform, the institutional barriers between urban and rural areas have gradually been broken, the equalization of urban and rural residents’ rights has been continuously improved, and the heterogeneous urban-rural dual structure has evolved into a homogeneous one-dimensional structure. Finally, it points out that China’s urbanization process has a tendency of falling into "stagnation in the flow in the future, and proposes relative targeted policy suggestions.
 
 
 
 
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