運用特爾斐法和層次分析法研究我國高校高水平運動隊建設的影響因素,為其后續發展及政府的頂層設計提供參考。研究認為:高校高水平運動隊建設的影響因素根據權重可分為4個等級,第1層次為招生政策、體育系統主導下的依附關系、高校競賽制度、奧運戰略導致資源供給不足;第2層次是退役運動員安置需求、高校急功近利及從眾心理;第3層次是高校評估壓力、中低層級梯隊建設不足、高考指揮棒,而剩余的為第4層次。國家政策、體育系統、社會因素以及教育系統本身4個因素之間相互影響、互為條件,使高校的辦隊目標發生變化。

By means of the Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process, the author studied factors that affect high performance university sports team construction in China, and on such a basis, analyzed the effects of rheological factors on university sports development in detail, dissected and examined such a kind of development resistance, so as to provide reference for its follow-up development and the government’s top-level design. The author concluded that based on weight, factors that affect high performance university sports team construction can be divided into 4 levels: level 1 factors are student recruiting policies, dependence relations dominated by sports systems, university competition systems, resource supply insufficiency caused by Olympic policies; level 2 factors are retire athletes’ need for placement, universities’ eagerness for quick success and herd-following psychology; level 3 factors are university evaluation pressure, inadequate mid and lower level echelon construction, college entrance examination directing baton; level 4 factors are the remaining factors. The mutual influence and mutual condition between such 4 factors as national policies, sports systems, social factors and education systems change universities’ objectives for sports team management.