為探究輿論反轉的機制,減少輿論反轉造成的危害,文章基于Hegselmann-Krause模型,引入有向無標度網絡并確定衡量節點中心性的"綜合中心性"指標,得到改進Hegselmann-Krause模型。利用模型,通過意見領袖觀點值改變刻畫輿論反轉,對輿論反轉現象進行描述與分析,并通過對具體案例的模擬,檢驗模型的有效性,探究意見領袖數量及觀點變化強度對輿論反轉的影響。結果表明,意見領袖數量越多,意見領袖的觀點變化越弱,群體觀點越快達到穩定,穩定后群體觀點值越一致且平均觀點值越接近意見領袖的觀點。

In order to explore the mechanism of public opinion reversal and reduce the negative effect caused by the reversal,this paper introduces the directed scale-free network and determines the"comprehensive centrality"index to measure the centrality of the node,and thus constructs the improved Hegselmann-Krause model. By using the model to describe the reversal of public opinion through the change of opinion leader’s point of view,this paper describes and analyzes the phenomenon of public opinion reversal,tests the validity of the model through simulations of specific cases,and explores the influence of the number of opinion leaders and the intensity of opinions on public opinion reversal. The results show that the more opinion leaders,the weaker change of their opinions,the faster the group views reach stability andthe more consistent the group views,and the average opinion value is closer to the opinions of opinion leaders.