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題名:全球化效應對中國城市商品房價格影響之研究
作者:呂昭宏
作者(外文):Chao-HongLu
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:都市計劃學系碩博士班
指導教授:陳彥仲
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2013
主題關鍵詞:全球化商品房價格中國城市GlobalizationHousing PriceChina cities
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 點閱點閱:25
全球化(Globalization)的結果,促使區域間的聯繫不斷地加強與擴張,國與國之間在政治、經濟貿易及資訊流通的互動關係也越來越緊密。全球化同時也造成了城市人口遷移及產業結構的改變,進而影響了城市的不動產發展。中國大陸自從1979年經濟改革開放後因受到全球化之影響,對於國際經濟的依存關係越來越緊密,由於廉價勞動力與土地取得成本等優勢,促使國際資金及跨國企業相繼於各主要經濟特區及大城市進行投資。經濟的成長、加速了城市建設,亦帶動了當地不動產市場的發展。為釐清全球化對城市房價之影響,本研究引用中國大陸2000年至2009年之相關資料,本研究以外人投資(FDI)與進出口貿易等為全球化重要指標,以及薪資水準、人均生產總值、重點開放城市等作為解釋變數對都市房價進行分析探討。文中主要透過三種模型進行探討,首先引用Ashok Deo Bardhan (2004)提出之租金預測模型,建立迴歸房價預測模型,檢視全球化效應,在不同區域與城市間之差異;其次,依據追蹤資料(Panel Data)之效用模型,綜合觀察都市房價在時間與城市間之差異;最後則以房價、外人直接投資以及薪資水準預測模式,建立聯立方程模型(Simultaneous Equation Model),釐清各種影響因素間之互動關係。結果顯示,全球化效應對房價有顯著之影響,其中外人投資在重點開放城市有較明顯之差異;其次在上海、北京、天津等主要大城,雖然房價已有大幅成長,但經模型推論,與全國各城市房價之相對成長效果比較,其房價仍有上漲的空間,相對地,溫州、杭州、南寧則可能會下降;最後,由聯立方程模型中發現,外人投資對房價之影響,主要是間接透過影響城市之薪資水準,進一步影響房價之變動,而且在重點開放城市中有明顯之差異。
The globalization pushed ahead the connection and expansion among the areas constantly, it also caused the closer relation in politics, economic and information between nations. Globalization also changed the migration and industrial structure of the city in the meantime, and then had effect on the development of real estate. After opening economic policy of China since 1979, there were a mount of international enterprises invested in China’s big cities and economic zone because of the cheaper labor and land price, the rising housing price were significant in those cities and areas to go alone with. In order to analysis the influence on housing price of globalization, this study quoted the data from 2000 to 2009 in China and used the foreign direct investment(FDI ) , the trade amount as the global index, wages level , GDP and important opening cities to express the change of housing price.
There are three models in this study. First, set up a Housing price Regression Model which refer to Ashok Deo Bardhan(2004), compare the housing price in different cities and areas. Second, quote the Panel Data Model to observe the housing price in different and cities. Finally, set up the Simultaneous Equation Model in this study, including housing price model, FDI model and wage level model to analysis the interaction among the factors that effect to housing price.
The results show, the globalization has significant effect on housing price and the FDI has obvious difference in important opening cities especially. According to the model conclusions, big cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, their housing prices were predicted that will be rising upward, on the other side the housing price of Wenzhou , Hangzhou , Nanning may drop. Finally, from the simultaneous equations model, the FDI effect on housing price was indirect by wages and there are obvious differences in important opening cities.
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