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題名:從國際合作框架探討區域經濟整合之可能性
作者:沈燦宏
作者(外文):Tsan-Hung Shen
校院名稱:中興大學
系所名稱:國際政治研究所
指導教授:袁鶴齡
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2014
主題關鍵詞:區域經濟整合國際合作虛擬利益垂直利益無窮賽局regional economic integrationinternational cooperationvirtual interestvertical interestsinfinite game
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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在人類歷史的進程中,競爭與合作(或戰爭與和平)始終交替發生著,尤其是自國際體系確立以來,國家之間的互動更是如此。雖然自「西發里亞和約」 (the Peace Treaty of Westphalia)簽訂後,國際上發生了幾次重大的戰爭,但仔細觀察國際體系仍然沒有瓦解,甚至冷戰亦悄然無疾而終。顯然,戰爭衝突的時間明顯較為短暫,合作穩定尚佔有較大部份的時間。從區域經濟整合的進程更可以驗證此一現象,也因此促使新區域主義(new regionalism)自1980年代應運而生。這種合作的面向至少具有以下三個特徵:(一)霸權之後的國際合作仍然存在著;(二)國際合作型態的擴展與變遷;(三)新區域主義的興起,並與區域經濟整合的新趨勢共同與時並進著。這三個特徵是本研究的主要研究背景。
本研究嘗試從較宏觀的國際合作視野著手,探討下列主要議題:(一)國際合作是否需要有霸權?如果霸權不是促成國際合作的唯一必要條件,那還有哪些?(二)如何以「利益」為核心建構理論架構,來解釋國際合作型態的擴展與變遷?(三)不同區域經濟組織自有其組成之因素,而其合作與整合之差異應如何檢定?(四)臺灣當局加入亞太區域經濟體系的策略思維為何?本研究嘗試以無窮賽局利益和與結構性利益為基本架構,融合「垂直利益」與「水平利益」的概念,據此將利益其區分為「現有生產利益」與「未來虛擬利益」兩項,來回答前兩項問題,最後再以「文化差異」、「資訊差距」、「地理距離」、「發展差距」和「政治因素」等五項指標,來檢定第三項問題,並以此提出台灣參與可能的區域經濟合作組織的策略選項。
一般國際合作研究都從「囚徒困境」(prisoners’ dilemma, PD)為其研究起點,本研究途徑即在突破此合作困境的「以牙還牙、投桃報李」(TIT-for-TAT)邏輯的基礎上,轉化連續無窮賽局的思惟,建構本研究區域合作的理論框架。此理論框架係以利益為變項,區分為「現有生產利益」與「未來虛擬利益」兩類,並建構未來虛擬利益比值的的五項指標,解釋國際合作程度或區域合作可能性的大小。透過此研究途徑,至少可獲致以下的研究目標:(一)建構一種融合性的區域經濟合作理論模式;(二)對國際間主要不同區域的合作程度獲得較全面的比較與較細緻理解;(三)提出臺灣面對可能加入的區域經濟合作的策略思維與選擇;以及(四)從國內政治層面與國際結構層面提出對臺灣政府的政策建議。
Competition versus cooperation or wars versus peace have always happened alternately between states since the international system was established along with the progress of history. After the Peace Treaty of Westphalia was signed, although there were some wars and conflicts, even the Cold War, they were disappeared eventually and the international system is still here. The time of international cooperation is more than international conflict which is approved by regional integration, so the new regionalism has prevailed since 1980. There are following three characteristics about international cooperation and new regionalism: (1) the international cooperation happens again after the great power declined; (2) The types of international cooperation are gradually changing; (3) When the trends of regional economic integration are progressing, the new regionalism comes into being with time. These three motives are main background of this research.
This research adopts an international cooperation viewpoint to discuss the following regional economic integration issues: 1. Does international cooperation need hegemonic power? If hegemony is not the only necessary condition to achieve international cooperation, then what is? 2. How to establish a theoretical framework with the country’s interests as a foundation to explain the possible expansion and change of the types of international cooperation? 3. While each regional economic organization has its own agenda, it is interesting and beneficial to evaluate the differences and motives of cooperation and integration among various regional economic organizations. 4. Given these differences and the possibilities of cooperation amongst these regional economic organizations, what is the strategic thinking of Taiwan while in joint with Asia-Pacific regional cooperation? This research tries to adopt infinite game approach and structural interest logic and integrate the concept of “vertical interests” and “horizontal interests.” In doing so, the model will be transferred into “the existing interests” and “the future virtual interests.” By using this created model, it can help answer the previous two questions. In addition, this research will also establish five indicators, including culture diversity, information gap, geographic distance, development distance, and political factors, to help answer the last two questions as well as provide better strategic thinking for Taiwanese government while joining some regional economic organizations.
The prisoners’ dilemma is one of key points of international cooperation study, so how to break through the dilemma is the research’s approach. We use the TIT-for-TAT logic to transfer an infinite game into a model. The model applies “the existing interest” and “the future virtual interest” instead of an accumulation interest of infinite games by TIT-for-TAT. Then we add five indexes for the ratio of virtual interest to explain the international cooperation and regional cooperation. Through this model for the research, we could get at least four expected purposes: (1) constructing a synthetic theory of international region cooperation; (2) With regard to cooperation degree between different international regions, we would achieve more comprehensive comparisons and more detail understandings; (3) This study could provide strategic thinking and alternatives for Taiwan when it prepare to attend some regional cooperation organization and (4) providing policy suggestion to Taiwan government through domestic politics level and international structure level.
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(六)報紙
袁鶴齡、沈燦宏。2011年。〈「九二共識」vs.「臺灣共識」〉。《蘋果日報》,2011年9月21日,第A19版。
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(五)報刊文章
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