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題名:台灣民主轉型過程中民意與公共政策之研究︰1996~2012的實證分析
作者:蘇毓昌 引用關係
作者(外文):Yu-Chang Su
校院名稱:世新大學
系所名稱:行政管理學研究所(含博、碩專班)
指導教授:余致力
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2014
主題關鍵詞:民意公共政策一致性民主轉型public opinionpublic policyconsistencydemocratic transformation
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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1996年的總統直選,是我國民主化進程的重要里程碑;2000年中央政府首度政黨輪替、2008年再次政黨輪替,再再突顯我國民主政治的逐步深化與鞏固。在這幾屆總統大選過程中,各組候選人無所不用其極的端出政策牛肉,爭取選民支持,但在勝選之後,其政策支票是否兑現?亦即民主政治的運作是否真的能展現民主回應性的價值,此即為本論文的核心研究主軸。
申言之,在如此重大政治體制轉變與改革的過程中,民意與公共政策兩者之間的關聯性是否產生變化?基此,本研究嘗試回答下列五個研究問題︰歷任民選總統任內民意與公共政策的一致性程度為何?不同政策類別對民意與公共政策一致程度的影響為何?分立政府(divided government)或一致政府對民意與公共政策一致程度的影響為何?議題顯著程度對民意與公共政策一致程度的影響為何?民意強度對民意與公共政策一致程度的影響為何?
在方法上,透過1996年至2012年的民調資料,本研究主要採用描述統計進行民意與公共政策的一致性分析,另輔以二元邏輯斯迴歸(logistic regression)企圖解釋不同政策類型、一致或分立政府、議題顯著程度、民意的強度,在不同總統任期中,對民意與公共政策一致性的影響。研究結果發現,馬英九時期的民意與公共政策一致程度最高;陳水扁時期(第一任)的一致程度最低;相較於分立政府,一致政府的民意與政策一致性更高,而民意的強度對民意與公共政策的一致性有顯著的影響。
The 1996 direct presidential election is an important milestone in the democratization of our country. The 2000 presidential election, resulting in party alternation of central government for the first time in the history, turns out to be an important process towards democratic transformation. The 2008 second party alternation further makes our democracy more consolidated. In these presidential elections, candidates without exception proposed many policy promises, hoping to win votes. But after victory, have these policy promises been kept? The core of this dissertation is to investigate whether democracy can achieve the value of responsiveness.
More specifically, during the period of a major political transition and reform, what is the relationship between public opinion and public policy? Based on this research question, this study investigates the following five dimensions: degrees of consistency between public opinion and public policy in different Administrations, effects of different policy categories on the consistency between public opinion and public policy, impacts of divided governments on the consistency between public opinion and public policy, influences of issue salience on the consistency between public opinion and public policy, and impacts of opinion intensity on the consistency between public opinion and public policy.
Using poll data collected from May 20, 1996 to May 19, 2012, the study conducts analysis on the consistency between public opinion and public policy during the past four Administrations. In addition, different types of policies, consistent or divided governments, degrees of issue salience, and the intensity of public opinion are further analyzed by binary logistic regression to test their influences on the consistency between public opinion and public policy. The empirical results show that Ma Administration has the highest consistency between public opinion and public policy consistency while Chen Administration (first term) the lowest. Compared to divided governments, consistent governments have higher degrees of consistency between public opinion and public policy. The intensity of public opinion also demonstrates an impact on the consistency between public opinion and public policy.
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