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題名：京津冀都市化進程中「經濟增長-環境保護」悖論之探討
作者：楊振武
作者(外文)：YANG ZHEN-WU
校院名稱：中國文化大學
系所名稱：建築及都市設計學系
指導教授：溫國忠
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2018
主題關鍵詞：脫鉤指數；資料包絡分析法；城市經濟效率；空間杜賓模型；協同發展模型；Decoupling Index；Data Envelope Analysis；Urban Economic Efficiency；Spatial Dubin Model；Synergistic Development Model
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都市化一直是區域科學和城市研究之重點。都市化發展進程中，「經濟增長與環境保護」之矛盾日益突出。京津冀都市圈區域作為中國經濟增長重要的一極，經濟增長之同時環境問題日益嚴重。故，本研究從京津冀都市圈區域發展進程入手，探究都市化進程中「經濟增長與環境保護」之悖論問題。
本研究透過對「經濟增長與環境保護」間存在之悖論問題進行分析並將之細分為「經濟增長與環境汙染」之脫鉤問題、環境約束條件下城市經濟效率問題和「經濟-資源-環境」之協同發展問題，採用脫鉤指數、資料包絡分析法、面板計量模型、空間面板杜賓模型和協同發展模型等方法，進行京津冀都市圈區域都市化發展進程中經濟增長與環境汙染脫鉤狀態分析、環境約束條件下城市經濟效率分析和「經濟-資源-環境」之協同發展分析，探為京津冀都市圈區域都市化發展進程中「經濟增長與環境保護」間悖論問題之解決，實現經濟增長與環境改善雙贏之路提供些許建議。
本研究成果為：（1）京津冀都市圈區域經濟增長對環境的負面影響依然存在，呈現三段倒U型環境Kuznets曲線波動趨勢，但在2008年之後，出現了四個強脫鉤年份，趨勢朝著經濟低碳化方向發展。在2007-2008年這一時期，由於暫時的環境管制措施，脫鉤狀態好轉，但尚未建立長效環境管理體制，脫鉤狀態迅速由好轉壞。產業結構是影響經濟增長與環境汙染脫鉤狀態的重要因素。北京市、天津市、河北省三地經濟增長與環境汙染脫鉤狀態不平衡，北京市脫鉤狀態最好，河北省最差。故建立長效環境管理體制，優化空間佈局，轉變產業結構，降低能耗，加強環保力度，仍是當前解決經濟增長影響環境問題之重要措施。
（2）2015年，具有技術效率DEA有效之城市有北京市、天津市、唐山市和滄州市四個。在技術進步推動下，京津冀都市圈區域城市經濟效率呈現持續上升趨勢，年均提高3.6%，核心城市如北京市和天津市動態成長性好，城市經濟效率年均增長均在10%以上。都市規模、產業結構和綠化指標是影響城市經濟效率高低的重要因素。發展中小城市的都市規模，進行產業結構調整，加快發展第三產業，減少第二產業比重，有助於提升城市經濟效率，同時也不能忽視綠化指標。
（3）京津冀都市圈區域「經濟-資源-環境」協同發展程度總體水準仍然不高，處於加強協同階段。只有北京市達到了良好協同發展程度，其餘城市均處在勉強和中級協同發展程度。要素配置是京津冀都市圈區域「經濟-資源-環境」協同發展之驅動力，加快發展第三產業，減少第二產業比重，推動「經濟-資源-環境」協同發展。
故，京津冀都市化進程中面臨著「經濟增長與環境保護」悖論問題，須要繼續調整產業結構；加大環境治理力度；打破行政界線，實施生態治理路線；疏解北京非首都職能，推進京津冀都市圈「經濟-資源-環境」協同發展。
Urbanization has been the focus of research of regional science and urban science. In the process of urbanization, the contradiction between economic growth and environmental protection has become increasingly prominent. As an important pole of China’s economy development, The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region have increase the economy rapidly, meanwhile it faces a serious problem in the environment pollution .Therefore, we can start from the process of urbanization, consider the economy, the resource and the environment, and study the paradox, which is between the economic growth and the environment protection on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region.
The research on the paradox problem between economic growth and environmental protection can be devided into three problems, the decoupling between economic growth and environment pollution, the urban economy efficiency under the environmental constraint, the synergetic development in the economy-resource-environment system. Using the methods of Decoupling, Data Envelopment Analysis, Panel Model, Spatial Panel Dobbin Model and Synergetic Development Model, we can analysis the decoupling between economic growth and environment pollution, evaluate the urban economy efficiency, study the synergetic development in the economy-resource-environment system. These researches can give us some suggestions for economic growth and environmental improvement, help us solve the paradox between economic growth and environmental protection.
The results of this research are as follows:(1)The impact of economic growth on the environment still exists negatively, but tends to develop in the direction of low-carbon economy.There are the three inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curves. However, there were four strong decoupling years after 2008. During the period 2007-2008, the decoupling situation was improved due to the temporary environmental control policy. However,the situation was rapidly deteriorating without the long-term environmental policy.The industrial structure is an important factor which influences the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution. The decoupling between economic growth and environmental pollution in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei is unbalanced. Beijing is the best , and Hebei is the worst. The establishment of long-term environmental policy, optimization of spatial distribution, industrial structure and environmental protection are very important.
(2) In 2015, DEA effective cities with technical efficiency are Beijing, Tianjin,Tangshan and Cangzhou. Under the progress of the technology, the urban economy efficiency shows a continuous upward trend and increases 3.6% annually. The dynamic growth of core cities is good.The urban economy efficiency in the core cities, such as Beijing and Tianjin, increase 10% annually.The urban scale, the industry structure and the green indicator are the important factor of the urban green economy efficiency. Developing the urban scale of middle-sized and small cities,adjusting of industrial structure, developing the tertiary industry, reducing the proportion of the secondary industry, clarifying the structure of property rights and developing the individual economies, will help to promote urban economic efficiency.
(3)In The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region, the overall level of economy-resource-environment synergistic development is still not high and imbalance and is the strenghthen phase. Beijing has entered a level of good synergetic development, and other cities are at the reluctant coordinated stage and mid-level coordinated stage of development. Factor allocation is the driving forces for the synergistic development. Developing the tertiary industry and reducing the proportion of the secondary industry, will help to develop the economy-resource-environment synergistic development.
Therefore, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region is faced with the contradiction of “economic growth and environmental protection”. It is necessary to continue to adjust the industrial structure; strengthen environmental governance; break the administrative boundaries and implement ecological treatment routes; dispel Beijing’s non-capital functions and promote Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region collaboratively.
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