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題名:投票與不投票的抉擇--2004年總統大選與公民投票的探索性研究
書刊名:臺灣民主季刊
作者:吳俊德陳永福
作者(外文):Wu, Jun-dehTan, Alexander C.
出版日期:2005
卷期:2:4
頁次:頁67-98
主題關鍵詞:利益落差政治效能感動員極小化最大後悔模型政治資訊Differential benefitPolitical efficacyMobilizationMinimax regret modelPolitical information
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(14) 博士論文(3) 專書(1) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:14
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:42
本文主要目的在於探討為何在2004年台灣總統大選與公民投票合併舉行時,兩項選舉的投票率有明顯的落差,是哪些因素影響總統大選的高投票率以及公民投票的低投票率?本文分析TEDS 2004年總統大選面訪資料發現,影響選民參與總統大選以及公民投票的因素是相當不同的,在總統大選方面,對於不同候選人的利益落差以及教育程度是具有影響力的變數,而政治效能感以及動員則沒有影響力,本文以為這是因為在台灣的投票成本相對較低的緣故。在公民投票方面,對於不同候選人的利益落差、政治效能感以及動員皆對於民眾的參與具有影響。另一方面,本文試圖探索不希望公民投票通過的選民,是否會依據對於現實世界可能發生狀況的不同判斷,而做出棄權或是投反對票的不同選擇。結果發現,這兩種投票決定對於不希望公民投票通過的選民來說,是差異不大的。
The goal of this paper is exploring why - despite the referenda and presidential election being jointly conducted - there is a huge gap between the turnout rates for the presidential election and referenda vote in Taiwan in 2004. After analyzing the 2004 TEDS presidential election survey data, the authors find that the determinants of whether to vote or not in the presidential election and referenda are different. For the presidential election, differential benefit and level of education are influential factors while political efficacy and mobilization are not. The authors suspect that the high turnout rate of the presidential election in Taiwan results from the relatively low cost of voting. For the referenda: differential benefit, political efficacy and mobilization are all influencing factors. On the other hand, the authors attempt to explore whether the difference between abstention and voting no forthose who do not want the referenda to pass - depends on their perception of the state of the world. The result is that this variable fails to explain the choice of voting no. The research findings infer that for those who do not want the referenda to pass, the choice of abstention and voting "no" does not make a difference.
期刊論文
1.Ferejohn, John A.、Fiorina, Morris P.(1974)。The Paradox of Not Voting: A Decision Theoretic Analysis。American Political Science Review,68(2),525-536。  new window
2.Aldrich, John H.(1993)。Rational Choice and Turnout。American Journal of Political Science,37(1),246-278。  new window
3.Riker, William H.、Ordeshook, Peter C.(1968)。A Theory of the Calculus of Voting。American Political Science Review,62(1),25-42。  new window
4.Craig, Stephen C.(1979)。Efficacy, Trust, and Political Behavior: An Attempt to Resolve a Lingering Conceptual Dilemma。American Politics Research,7(2),225-239。  new window
5.Craig, Stephen C.、Maggiotto, Michael A.(1982)。Measuring Political Efficacy。Political Methodology,8(3),85-109。  new window
6.Finkel, Steven E.(1985)。Reciprocal Effects of Participation and Political Efficacy: A Panel Analysis。American Journal of Political Science,29(4),891-913。  new window
7.Abramson, Paul R.、Aldrich, John H.(1982)。The Decline of Electoral Participation in America。American Political Science Review,76(3),502-521。  new window
8.Shaffer, Stephen D.(1981)。A Multivariate Explanation of Decreasing Turnout in Presidential Electrions, 1960-1976。American Journal of Political Science,25,68-95。  new window
9.Ferejohn, John A.、Fiorina, Morris P.(1975)。Closeness Counts Only in Horseshoes and Dancing。American Political Science Review,69(3),920-925。  new window
10.Meehl, Paul E.(1977)。The Selfish Voter Paradox and the Thrown-Away Vote Argument。American Journal of Political Science,71(1),11-30。  new window
圖書
1.Green, Donald P.、Shapiro, Ian(1994)。Pathologies of Rational Choice Theory: A Critique of Applications in Political Science。Yale University Press。  new window
2.Rosenstone, Steven J.、Hansen, John Mark(1993)。Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America。Longman。  new window
3.Downs, Anthony J.(1957)。An Economic Theory of Democracy。New York:Harper and Row。  new window
 
 
 
 
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