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題名：選舉的空間因素：以三次總統選舉為例
書刊名：國家發展研究
作者：鄧志松 引用關係
作者(外文)：Teng, Chih-sung
出版日期：2006
卷期：6:1
頁次：頁89-144
主題關鍵詞：空間分析；空間自相關；選舉地理學；空間迴歸；總統選舉；Spatial analysis；Spatial autocorrelation；Electoral geography；Spatial regression；Presidential election
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(18) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(3)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:17
  • 共同引用共同引用:117
  • 點閱點閱:147
本文嘗試以空間分析的方法，探討台灣三次總統選舉呈現的空間因素。作者首先介紹空間分析的意義與特質，接著介紹空間分析常用的方法，對選舉地理學重要文獻作簡要回顧，最後以三次總統選舉為例，探討選舉結果呈現的空間因素。使用的方法包括視覺化呈現、空間探索分析、空間迴歸建模三個層面。研究發現第一次總統選舉，因李登輝效應影響，選票的空間結構比較異常。其後選舉，藍、綠選票加總之後，縱使得票率互有消長，仍呈現相當穩定的空間結構。空間迴歸方面，作者針對民進黨總統選舉獲票的增加率進行分析，發展誤差的空間自相關現象同時來自於空間異質與鄰近效應。
The author tries to apply the methods of spatial analysis into the studies of election campaign with the purpose of identifying the influence of spatial factors. After making a short introduction of the meaning of spatial analysis and the techniques of this research approach, the author takes the three presidential elections held in Taiwan from 1996 to 2004 as example. The methods used in this study include geographical visualization, exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial modeling. The author finds that the voting results show a high degree of spatial stability, although the party supports in each election was changing. In the spatial regression analysis, the author finds there are both spatial heterogeneity and autocorrelation existed which makes error violates the assumption of OLS regression.
期刊論文
1.Cho, Wendy K. Tam(2003)。Contagion Effects and Ethnic Contribution Networks。American Journal of Political Science，47(2)，368-387。  new window
2.Sui, Daniel Z.、Hugill, Peter J.(2002)。A GIS-based Spatial Analysis on Neighborhood Effects and Voter Turn-out: A Case Study in College Station Texas。Political Geography，21(2)，159-173。  new window
3.McAllister, Iain、Fieldhouse, Edward、Russell, Andrew(2002)。Yellow Fever? The Political Geography of Liberal Voting in Great Britain。Political Geography，21，421-447。  new window
4.McAllister, Ian、Studlar, Donley T.(1992)。Region and Voting in Britain, 1979-87: Territorial Polarization or Artifact。American Journal of Political Science，36(1)，168-199。  new window
5.McAllister, Ian(1987)。Social Context, Turnout, and the Vote: Australian and British Comparisons。Political Geography Quarterly，6(1)，17-30。  new window
6.Kohfeld, Carol W.、Sprague, John(2002)。Race, Space and Turnout。Political Geography，21，175-193。  new window
7.盛杏湲(19981100)。政黨配票與侯選人票源的集散度：一九八三年至一九九五年臺灣地區立法委員選舉的分析。選舉研究，5(2)，73-102。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.洪永泰(19940500)。選舉預測：一個以整體資料為輔助工具的模型。選舉研究，1(1)，93-110。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.林繼文(19981100)。地盤劃分與選舉競爭：對應分析法在多席次選舉研究上之應用。選舉研究，5(2)，103-128。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.黃信豪(20060300)。多層模型於選民投票行為研究的應用：以2004年總統選舉為例。東吳政治學報，22，161-201。new window  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Giddens, A.、Pierson, C.(1998)。Conversations with Anthony Giddens。Cambridge, UK：Polity。  new window
2.Agnew, John A.(1987)。Place and Politics: The Geographical Mediation of State and Society。Allen & Unwin。  new window
3.Anselin, Luc(1988)。Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models。Kluwer Academic Publishers。  new window
其他
1.徐永明(2001)。政治版圖：兩個選舉行為研究途徑的對話。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Anselin, Luc(2005)。Exploring Spatial Data with DeoDa: A Workbook。  new window
3.Ault, Brian & William Brustein(1998)。oining the Nazi Party: Explaining the Political Geography of NSDAP Membership, 1925-1933。  new window
4.urbank, M.(1995)。How do contextual effects work? Developing a theoretical model。  new window
5.Flint, Colin(1995)。The Political Geography of Nazism: The Spatial Diffusion of the Nazi Party Vote in Weimar Germany。  new window
6.Flint, Colin(1998)。Forming Electorates, Forging Spaces: The Nazi Party and the social construction of space。  new window
7.Flint, Colin(2000)。Electoral geography and the social construction of space: The example of the Nazi party in Baden, 1924-1932。  new window
8.Gimpel, James G. & Jason E. Schuknecht(2002)。Reconsidering Political Regionalism in the American States。  new window
9.Gimpel, J.G., J.E. Schuknecht(2003)。Political participation and the accessibility of the ballot box。  new window
10.Gimpel, James G. and Wendy K. Tam Cho(2004)。The persistence of white ethnicity in New England politics。  new window
11.Gimpel, James G., Irwin L. Morris & David R. Armstrong(2004)。Turnout and the local age distribution: examining political participation across space and time。  new window
12.Griffiths, William E., R.Carter Hill, & George G. Judge(1993)。Learning and Practicing econometrics。  new window
13.West II, W. Jefferson(2005)。Regional Cleavages in Turkish Politics: An Electoral Geography of the 1999 and 2002 national elections。  new window
14.Johnston, Ron, Kelvyn Jones, Rebecca Sarker, Carol Propper, Simon Burgess & Anne Bolster(2004)。Party Support and the Neighborhood Effect: Spatial Polarization of the British electorate, 1991-2001。  new window
15.Kohfeld, Carol W. and John Sprague(2002)。Race, space, and turnout。  new window
16.Mellow, Nicole & Peter Trubowitz(2005)。Red versus blue: American Electoral Geography and Congressional Bipartisanship, 1898-2002。  new window
17.Michael F. Goodchild and Donald G. Janelle(2004)。Spatially integrated Social Science。  new window
18.Nicole Mellow, Peter Trubowitz。Red versus blue: American electoral geography and congressional bipartisanship, 1898-2002。  new window
19.Loughlin, John, Colin Flint, and Luc Anselin(1994)。The Geography of the Nazi Vote: Context, Confession, and Class in the Reichstag Election of 1930。  new window
20.O’Loughlin, John(2002)。Spatial Analysis in Political Geography。  new window
21.Patterson, Samuel C. & Gregory a. Caldeira(1984)。The Etiology of Partisan Competition。  new window
22.Perdomo, C. J. Vilalta Y.(2004)。The local context and the spatial diffusion of multiparty competition in Urban Mexico, 1994-2000。  new window
23.Sauerzopf, R., & T. Swanstrom(1999)。The urban electorate in Presidential Elections 1920-1996。  new window
24.Shin, Michael E.and John Agnew(2002)。The geography of party replacement in Italy, 1987-1996。  new window
25.Tobler, W.(1979)。Cellular Geography。  new window
 
 
 
 
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