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題名：住宅自有率對生育率之長短期影響--追蹤資料共整合分析應用
書刊名：人口學刊
作者：彭建文 引用關係／蔡怡純 引用關係
作者(外文)：Peng, Chien-wen／Tsai, I-chun
出版日期：2012
卷期：44
頁次：頁57-86
主題關鍵詞：生育率；住宅自有率；追蹤資料；共整合分析；Fertility rate；Homeownership rate；Panel data；Cointegration test
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(5) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:4
  • 共同引用共同引用:55
  • 點閱點閱:78
在臺灣生育率持續下降的同時，住宅自有率卻呈現長期上升的趨勢，到底家戶的生育決策與購屋決策是否有關聯？或僅是時間數列上的巧合？本文發現生育率與住宅自有率、家戶可支配所得、有偶率、女性高等教育比率之間具有共整合的長期均衡關係，其中住宅自有率、家戶所得、有偶率在長期對生育率有正向影響，而女性高等教育比率在長期則對生育率有負向影響。生育率的短期變化除具有顯著的負向自我相關外，最為相關的因子就是家戶所得與女性高等教育比率，生育率與前一年和前兩年的所得都為正向相關，與前一年和前兩年的女性高等教育比率則為負向相關，但生育率與住宅自有率的短期關係不顯著，可能是因為住宅自有率對生育率的正負向關係相互抵銷所造成。
Taiwan's fertility rates have decreased over the past three decades, making it one of the lowest-low fertility countries in the world. However, its homeownership rates exhibited an opposite trend, increasing during the same period. Are these two time series trends related or merely coincidental? Our empirical results reveal that fertility rates are co-integrated with homeownership rates, household income, proportion of married couples, and percentage of higher educated females, which means there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship among these variables. In the short-term, in addition to a significant negative autocorrelation, fertility rates were mostly affected by lagging household income and the percentage of more highly educated females, but the influence of lagging homeownership rates was not significant.
期刊論文
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12.于若蓉、朱敬一(19880600)。婦女勞動參與對生育行為之影響--兩制內生轉換模型之應用。經濟論文叢刊，16(2)，225-249。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.陳佳欣、陳彥仲(20100600)。結婚決策對首次購屋決策影響之內生性分析--臺灣地區男性受訪者之實證現象探討。住宅學報，19(1)，59-80。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.彭建文、花敬群(2001)。住宅租買選擇行為之探討―住宅服務品質差異之影響。臺灣土地金融季刊，38(4)，89-107。  延伸查詢new window
15.Hondroyiannis, G.、Papapetrou, E.(2002)。Demographic Transition and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Greece。Journal of Population Economics，15，221-242。  new window
16.Mulder, Clara H.、Wanger, Michael(2001)。The Connections between Family Formation and First-time Home Ownership in the Context of West Germany and the Netherlands。European Journal of Population，17(2)，137-164。  new window
17.Pedroni, P.(2004)。Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with An Application to The PPP Hypothesis。Econometric Theory，20(3)，597-625。  new window
18.Im, Kyung So、Pesaran, M. Hashem、Shin, Yongcheol(2003)。Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels。Journal of Econometrics，115(1)，53-74。  new window
19.Maddala, Gangadharrao S.、Wu, Shaowen(1999)。A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test。Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics，61(S1)，631-652。  new window
20.孫得雄(20011200)。The Impacts of a Family Planning Program on Contraceptive/Fertility Behavior in Taiwan。人口學刊，23，49-92。new window  new window
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22.Lien, H. M.、Wu, W. C.、Lin, C. C.(2008)。New Evidence on the Link Between Housing Environment and Children’s Educational Attainments。Journal of Urban Economics，64(2)，408-421。  new window
23.Lo, K. T.(2011)。The Crowding-Out Effect of Homeownership on Fertility。Journal of Family and Economic Issues，33(1)，108-117。  new window
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27.Bourassa, S. C.、Peng, C. W.(2011)。Why Is Taiwan’s Homeownership Rates So High?。Urban Studies，48(13)，2887-2904。  new window
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29.McNown, R.(2003)。A Cointegration Model of Age-Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States。Southern Economic Journal，70(2)，334-358。  new window
30.Papapetrou, E.(2004)。Does Female Employment Affect Fertility? Evidence from the United Kingdom。The Social Science Journal，41(2)，235-249。  new window
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32.Yang, H. L.(2000)。Education Married Women’s Participation Rate Fertility and Economic Growth。Journal of Economic Development，25(2)，101-118。  new window
33.Feijten, P.、Mulder, C. H.(2002)。The Timing of Household Events and Housing Events: A Longitudinal Perspective。Housing Studies，17(5)，773-792。  new window
34.Green, Richard K.、White, Michelle J.(1997)。Measuring the Benefits of Homeowning: Effects on Children。Journal of Urban Economics，41(3)，441-461。  new window
35.Haurin, D. R.、Parcel, T. L.、Haurin, R. J.(2002)。Does Homeownership Affect Child Outcomes?。Real Estate Economics，30(4)，635-666。  new window
36.Cheng, B. S.、Nwachukwu, S. L. S.(1997)。The Effect of Education on Fertility in Taiwan: A Time Series Analysis。Economics Letters，56(1)，95-99。  new window
37.Huang, J. T.、Kao, A. P.、Hung, W. C.(2006)。The Influence of College Tuition and Fees on Fertility Rate in Taiwan。Journal of Family and Economic Issues，27(4)，626-642。  new window
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圖書
1.Becker, Gary S.(1991)。A Treatise on the Family。Harvard University Press。  new window
2.Baltagi, Badi H.(2005)。Econometric analysis of panel data。John Wiley & Sons, Inc.。  new window
3.Mincer, J.(1963)。Market Prices, Opportunity Costs, and Income Effects。Measurement in Economics: Studies in Mathematical Economics in Honor of Yehuda Grunfeld。Stanford。  new window
其他
1.黃智聰，黃修梅(2005)。臺灣地區婦女學歷對生育率影響之再審視，臺北。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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