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題名:日本選民政黨支持與投票抉擇:小泉執政時期參眾兩院選舉的分析
書刊名:臺灣政治學刊
作者:黃紀 引用關係郭銘峰 引用關係王鼎銘 引用關係
作者(外文):Huang, ChiKuo, Ming-fengWang, Ding-ming
出版日期:2014
卷期:18:2
頁次:頁1-78
主題關鍵詞:日本國會眾議院參議院定群追蹤資料混合勝算對數模型廣義混合勝算對數模型Japanese dietHouse of RepresentativesHouse of CouncilorsPanel dataMixed logitGeneralized mixed logit
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 共同引用共同引用:238
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民主國家的選舉,選民的投票抉擇,長久以來都是學界研究關懷的重要課題。選民投票抉擇的動態變化,不僅攸關不同政黨勢力的起伏,也具體反映出一國政黨體系演變的軌跡。也因為這種演變的狀況對民主發展的模式與軌跡各具不同的意義,國內外學界對此皆具高度濃厚興趣,不論是從理論概念的測量界定、研究設計與分析方法的開拓,抑或是各國實證資料的廣泛蒐集,都累積相當豐碩的成果。本文聚焦於我們東亞鄰國的日本,探討 21 世紀初期在小泉純一郎首相領導執政時期之下,國會參眾兩院選舉之選民投票抉擇與影響要因。本文評估小泉執政時期的選民投票抉擇,透過混合勝算對數(Mixed Logit)與廣義混合勝算對數模型(Generalized Mixed Logit)等的分析比較,我們發現廣義混合勝算對數模型是較合適的模型,因為該模型能同時考量選民在偏好上的異質性、以及相同政黨偏好在投票抉擇上展現不同幅度的不確定性。該模型的分析顯示:在控制了制度的因素後,政黨情感溫度計、政黨支持、小泉魅力等,都是這期間左右選民投票穩定的關鍵要素。此外,廣義混合勝算對數模型所特有的「尺度異質」更指出,儘管政黨支持是影響日本選民投票抉擇的重要因素,但其影響力又會因人而異,例如同樣是認同自公聯盟者,有人較篤定投給該黨、但也有人較多變。這樣的結果,除了呼應既有國內外選舉文獻之觀點外,我們採用的小泉執政時期完整的跨時序定群追蹤資料,也更延伸並豐富了現有對日本選舉行為的觀察。
Elections and voting behavior have been enduring subjects in studying democracies. Electoral stability and volatility not only shape the faith of individual political parties, but also the evolution of the party system as a whole. Hence topics related to party support and voting choices, both methodological and substantive, have attracted attention from scholars around the world. This study focuses on the voting choices in Japan’s bicameral system under Junichiro Koizumi’s governance in the early 21st century. By employing the panel data from the Japanese Election Study (JES III), we analyze four waves of House and Councilor elections from 2001 to 2005. By comparing Mixed Logit (MXL) and Generalized Mixed Logit (GMXL) models, we find that the GMXL model is the most appropriate tool in analyzing Japanese longitudinal voting behavior because it can simultaneously take into account the ‘individual’s preference heterogeneity’ and ‘scale heterogeneity across individuals’ of party identification. The results of the GMXL model indicate the significance of the party feeling thermometer, party identification, and Koizumi’s leadership in influencing Japanese voting choices while controlling the bicameral institution variable. More importantly, although the GMXL analysis confirms many findings in the previous literature on party identification in influencing voting behavior, such as how the voters behave in supporting the LDP-Koumei Coalition, the GMXL model further captures both preference and scale heterogeneity in the Japanese voters’ utility function, i.e., some voters behave with greater variation while others behave more consistently. These results not only enrich the existing Japanese electoral literature, but also contribute to the methodology of studying voting choices in general. Elections and voting behavior have been enduring subjects in studying democracies. Electoral stability and volatility not only shape the faith of individual political parties, but also the evolution of the party system as a whole. Hence topics related to party support and voting choices, both methodological and substantive, have attracted attention from scholars around the world. This study focuses on the voting choices in Japan’s bicameral system under Junichiro Koizumi’s governance in the early 21st century. By employing the panel data from the Japanese Election Study (JES III), we analyze four waves of House and Councilor elections from 2001 to 2005. By comparing Mixed Logit (MXL) and Generalized Mixed Logit (GMXL) models, we find that the GMXL model is the most appropriate tool in analyzing Japanese longitudinal voting behavior because it can simultaneously take into account the ‘individual’s preference heterogeneity’ and ‘scale heterogeneity across individuals’ of party identification. The results of the GMXL model indicate the significance of the party feeling thermometer, party identification, and Koizumi’s leadership in influencing Japanese voting choices while controlling the bicameral institution variable. More importantly, although the GMXL analysis confirms many findings in the previous literature on party identification in influencing voting behavior, such as how the voters behave in supporting the LDP-Koumei Coalition, the GMXL model further captures both preference and scale heterogeneity in the Japanese voters’ utility function, i.e., some voters behave with greater variation while others behave more consistently. These results not only enrich the existing Japanese electoral literature, but also contribute to the methodology of studying voting choices in general.
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12.池田謙一、小林良彰、平野浩(2006)。特別推進研究:21世紀初頭の投票行動の全国的・時系列的調查研究。東京。  延伸查詢new window
13.佐佐木毅(1999)。政治改革1800日の真実。東京:講談社。  延伸查詢new window
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16.御厨貴(2006)。ニヒリズムの宰相小泉純一郎論。PHP研究所。  延伸查詢new window
17.御厨貴(2013)。歷代首相物語。東京:新書館。  延伸查詢new window
18.楊鈞池(2012)。從「和平國家」邁向「正常國家」:日本政治轉型之研究。臺北:翰蘆。  延伸查詢new window
19.蒲島郁夫(2004)。戦後政治の軌跡。東京:岩波書店。  延伸查詢new window
20.選挙制度研究会(2005)。衆議院選挙要覽。東京:國政情報センター。  延伸查詢new window
21.Flanagan, S. C.、Kohei, S.、Miyake, I.、Richardson, B.、Watanuki, J.(1991)。The Japanese Voter。London, UK。  new window
22.Scheiner, Ethan(2006)。Democracy Without Competition in Japan: Opposition Failure in One-Party Dominant State。Cambridge:Cambridge University Press。  new window
23.Trilling, R.(1976)。Party Image and Electoral Behavior。New York, NY:John Wiley。  new window
24.三宅一郎(1985)。政党支持の分析。東京:創文社。  延伸查詢new window
25.三宅一郎(1989)。投票行動。東京:東京大学出版会。  延伸查詢new window
26.大竹邦実(1996)。実務と研修のためのわかりやすい公職選挙法。東京:ぎょうせい株式会社。  延伸查詢new window
27.小林良彰(2002)。現代日本の政治過程:日本型民主主義の計量分析。東京:東京大学出版会。  延伸查詢new window
28.內田健三(1973)。派閥。東京:講談社。  延伸查詢new window
29.沖野安春(1995)。現代日本の政治。東京:芦書房。  延伸查詢new window
30.真鍋一(2004)。参議院制度論:その選挙制度、定数格差問題、そして参議院無用論について。東京:東京図書出版会。  延伸查詢new window
31.梅津實、森脇俊雅、坪郷實、後房雄、山田真裕(1998)。比較‧選挙政治:90年代における先進五カ国の選挙。京都:ミネルヴァ書房。  延伸查詢new window
32.Eldersveld, Samuel J.(1964)。Political Parties: A Behavioral Analysis。Chicago, IL:Rand McNally。  new window
33.Long, J. Scott、Freese, Jeremy(2006)。Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables Using Stata。Stata Press。  new window
34.Cox, Gary W.(1997)。Making Votes Count。Cambridge。  new window
35.Train, Kenneth E.(2009)。Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation。New York:Cambridge University Press。  new window
36.Greene, William H.(2012)。Econometric Analysis。Essex, UK:Pearson Education Limited。  new window
37.北岡伸一(2000)。「普通の國」へ。東京:中央公論新社。  延伸查詢new window
38.楊鈞池(20060000)。從『派閥均衡』到『官邸主導』:1990年代日本政治體制改革之分析。臺北:翰蘆圖書。new window  延伸查詢new window
39.村松岐夫、伊藤光利、辻中豊(2001)。日本の政治。東京:有斐閣。  延伸查詢new window
40.Norris, Pippa(2004)。Electoral Engineering: Voting Rules and Political Behavior。New York, NY。  new window
41.福岡政行(2001)。日本の選挙。東京:早稲田大学出版部。  延伸查詢new window
42.許介鱗、楊鈞池(2006)。日本政治制度。臺北:三民。new window  延伸查詢new window
43.Lijphart, Arend(1984)。Democracies: Patterns of Majoritarian and Consensus Government in Twenty-One Countries。Yale University Press。  new window
44.蔡增家(2005)。日本轉型:九○之後政治經濟體制的轉變。臺北:五南。new window  延伸查詢new window
45.Campbell, Angus、Converse, Philip E.、Miller, Warren E.、Stokes, Donald E.(1960)。The American Voter。The University of Chicago Press。  new window
其他
1.参議院(2013)。参議院議員選挙制度の変遷,http://www.sangiin.go.jp/japanese/san60/s60_shiryou/senkyo.htm, 2013/11/06。  延伸查詢new window
2.曹瑞泰(20040713)。日本進入兩大政黨競合。  延伸查詢new window
3.曹瑞泰(2007)。日本選舉制度改革與影響:現行小選區比例代表並立制施行之研究,http://www.japansearch.org.tw/scholar-94.aspm, 2007/04/02。  延伸查詢new window
4.隋杜卿(2001)。日本議院改選(2001)對政黨合作的啟示,http://www.npf.org.tw/post/2/695/1, 2014/11/02。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.Glasgow, Garrett、Alvarez, R. Michael(2008)。Discrete Choice Methods。The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology。Oxford, UK:Oxford University Press。  new window
2.川人貞史(2001)。日本の政党間競争と選挙。現代の政党と選挙。東京:有斐閣。  延伸查詢new window
3.Akuto, Hiroshi(1971)。Political Process and Public Opinion: Voting Behavior and Mass Communication。International Studies of Broadcasting。Tokyo, JP:NHK Radio and Television Culture Research Institute。  new window
4.Lipset, Seymour Martin、Rokkan, Stein(1967)。Party System and Voter Alignments。Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-national Perspectives。New York, NY:The Free Press。  new window
5.McFadden, Daniel L.(1973)。Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior。Frontiers in Econometrics。Academic Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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