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題名：比較入選機率分組與其他加權方法對電話調查樣本的調整：上網率的推估
書刊名：臺灣社會學刊
作者：杜素豪 引用關係
作者(外文)：Tu, Su-hao
出版日期：2015
卷期：56
頁次：頁115-150
主題關鍵詞：事後分層；多變項反覆加權；入選機率調整法；次樣本分組；Post-stratification；Raking；Propensity score adjustment；Sub-classification
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:59
  • 點閱點閱:103
傳統的事後分層與多重反覆加權法可以降低抽樣誤差，但在改進推估偏差的效果仍然有限。本研究採用「入選機率調整法（propensity score adjustment, PSA)」，對2008年的電話訪問樣本進行18歲以上臺灣民眾之上網率的推估，進行上述兩種加權方法以及其納入PSA前後之估計效果的比較。在幾種入選機率值（propensity scores, PS）的調整方法中，本研究採用次樣本分組法，因此也同時比較四到十個分組之間估計效果的差異。本研究以同一時段蒐集的「臺灣地區社會變遷基本調查五期四次全球化組」為PSA的參考樣本；（前）行政院研究考核委員會執行的「數位落差調查」所推估的全臺灣民眾的上網率為擬母體黃金標準，亦即PSA與兩種傳統加權之估計效果的比較基準。結果證實納入原調查權數（來自事後分層與多重反覆加權）後，在五個次樣本分組時，上網率的估計值最接近數位落差調查的估計值。比起納入事後分層權數，納入多重反覆加權權數的PSA在估計誤差上相對較小。
While post-stratification and raking calibration methods can reduce sampling errors, they have estimation limitations. The author adopts propensity score adjustment (PSA) to estimate Internet usage based on data collected from a 2008 telephone sample. Comparisons were made among post-stratification, raking, post-stratification PSA, and raking PSA. Stratification was used to produce PS weights and to compare estimated Internet usage for seven sub-classifications. The Taiwanese Social Change Survey conducted during the same period was used as the reference sample for PSA, while official statistics based on a Digital Divide Survey as the benchmark for bias reduction comparisons. Results indicate that (a) Internet usage estimates based on PSA adjusted according to base weight (i.e., survey weight from post-stratification or raking) using five sub-classes were more accurate than other estimates, and (b) bias reduction based on PSA adjusted by raking exceeded that of PSA adjusted by post-stratification.
期刊論文
1.劉從葦、陳光輝(20051100)。Is Weighting a Routine or Something that Needs to be Justified?。選舉研究，12(2)，149-187。new window  new window
2.Harder, V. S.、Stuart, E. A.、Anthony, James C.(2010)。Propensity score techniques and the assessment of measured covariate balance to test causal associations in psychological research。Psychological Methods，15(3)，234-249。  new window
3.Sinhaxay, S.、Stern, H. S.、Russell, D.(2001)。The use of multiple imputation for the analysis of missing data。American Psychological Association，6(4)，317-329。  new window
4.俞振華、蔡佳泓(20060600)。如何利用全國性民調推估地方民意？多層次貝式定理估計模型與分層加權的應用。臺灣政治學刊，10(1)，5-38。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Harding, D. J.(2003)。Counterfactual models of neighborhood effects: The effect neighborhood poverty on dropping out and teenage pregnancy。American Journal of Sociology，109(3)，676-719。  new window
6.杜素豪、羅婉云、洪永泰(20090900)。以入選機率調整法修正調查推估偏差的成效評估。政治科學論叢，41，151-175。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.侯佩君(20080400)。電話調查的「類拒訪」分析。調查研究，23，81-118。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Austin, Peter C.(2006)。A Comparison of Propensity Score Methods: A Casestudy Estimating the Effectiveness of Post-AMI Statin Use。Statistics in Medicine，25，2084-2106。  new window
9.Austin, Peter C.(2014)。A Comparison of 12 Algorithms for Matching on the Propensity Score。Statistics in Medicine，33(6)，1057-1069。  new window
10.Imai, Kosuke、Van Dyk, David A.(2004)。Causal Inference with General Treatment Regimes: Generalizing the Propensity Score。Journal of the American Statistical Association，99(467)，854-866。  new window
11.Kalton, Graham、Flores-Cervantes, Ismael(2003)。Weighting Methods。Journal of Official Statistics，19(2)，81-97。  new window
12.Lee, Sunghee、Valliant, Richard(2009)。Estimation for Volunteer Panel Web Surveys Using Propensity Score Adjustment and Calibration Adjustment。Sociological Methods & Research，37(3)，319-343。  new window
13.Luellen, Jason K.、Shadish, William R.、Clark, M. H.(2005)。Propensity Scores: An Introduction and Experimental Test。Evaluation Review，29(6)，530-558。  new window
14.Särndal, Carl-Erik(2007)。The Calibration Approach in Survey Theory and Practice。Survey Methodology，33(2)，99-119。  new window
15.Schonlau, Matthias、Zapert, Kinga、Simon, Lisa Payne、Sanstad, Katherine Haynes、Marcus, Sue M.、Adams, John、Berry, Sandra H.(2004)。A Comparison between Responses from a Propensity-Weighted Web Survey and Identical RDD Survey。Social Science Computer Review，22，128-138。  new window
16.Schonlau, Matthias、Van Soest, Arthur、Kapteyn, Arie(2007)。Are 'Webographic' or Attitudinal Questions Useful for Adjusting Estimates from Web Surveys Using Propensity Scoring?。Survey Research Methods，1(3)，155-163。  new window
17.Srinath, K. P.、Frankel, Martin R.、Hoaglin, David C.、Battaglia, Michael P.(2009)。Compensating for Noncoverage of Nontelephone Households in Random-Digit-Dialing Surveys: A Comparison of Adjustments Based on Propensity Scores and Interruptions in Telephone Service。Journal of Official Statistics，25(1)，77-98。  new window
18.Yanovitzky, Itzhak、Zanutto, Elaine、Hornik, Robert(2005)。Estimating Causal Effects of Public Health Education Campaigns Using Propensity Score Methodology。Evaluation and Program Planning，28(2)，209-220。  new window
19.Zanutto, Elaine L.、Lu, Bo、Hornik, Robert(2005)。Using Propensity Score Subclassification for Multiple Treatment Does to Evaluate a National Antidrug Media Campaign。Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics，30(1)，59-73。  new window
20.Cochran, W. G.(1968)。The Effectiveness of Adjustment by Subclassification in Removing Bias in Observational Studies。Biometrics，24(2)，295-323。  new window
21.Czajka, John L.、Hirabayashi, Sharon M.、Little, Roderick J. A.、Rubin, Donald B.(1992)。Projecting from Advance Data Using Propensity Modeling: An Application to Income and Tax Statistics。Journal of Business & Economic Statistics，10(2)，117-131。  new window
22.Duncan, Kristin B.、Stasny, Elizabeth A.(2001)。Using Propensity Scores to Control Coverage Bias in Telephone Surveys。Survey Methodology，27(2)，121-130。  new window
23.Judkins, David R.、Morganstein, David、Zador, Paul、Piesse, Andrea、Barrett, Brandon、Mukhopadhyay, Pushpal(2007)。Variable Selection and Raking in Propensity Scoring。Statistics in Medicine，26，1022-1033。  new window
24.Lee, Sunghee(2006)。Propensity Score Adjustment as a Weighting Scheme for Volunteer Panel Web Surveys。Journal of Official Statistics，22(2)，329-349。  new window
25.Loosveldt, Geert、Sonck, Nathalie(2008)。An Evaluation of the Weighting Procedures for an Online Access Panel Survey。Survey Research Methods，2(2)，93-105。  new window
26.Zanutto, Elaine L.(2006)。A Comparison of Propensity Score and Linear Regression Analysis of Complex Survey Data。Journal of Data Science，4，67-91。  new window
27.Schonlau, Matthias、Van Soest, Arthur、Kapteyn, Arie、Couper, Mick(2009)。Selection Bias in Web Surveys and the Use of Propensity Scores。Sociological Methods & Research，37(3)，291-318。  new window
28.洪永泰、黃永政(20000500)。臺灣地區電話隨機撥號抽樣方法之研究。選舉研究，7(1)，173-184。new window  延伸查詢new window
29.Rosenbaum, P. R.、Rubin, D. B.(1984)。Reducing bias in observational studies using subclassification on the propensity score。Journal of the American Statistical Association，79(387)，516-524。  new window
30.洪永泰、洪百薰、林宇璇、呂孟穎、許勝懋、吳淑惠、卓仲彥、徐書儀(20140400)。手機使用對臺灣地區電話調查涵蓋率之影響評估。調查研究：方法與應用，31，7-30。new window  延伸查詢new window
31.Rosenbaum, Paul R.、Rubin, Donald B.(1983)。The Central Role of the Propensity Score in Observational Studies for Causal Effects。Biometrika，70(1)，41-55。  new window
32.黃紀、張佑宗(20031100)。樣本代表性檢定與最小差異加權：以2001年臺灣選舉與民主化調查為例。選舉研究，10(2)，1-35。new window  延伸查詢new window
33.Austin, Peter C.(2011)。An Introduction to Propensity Score Methods for Reducing the Effects of Confounding in Observational Studies。Multivariate Behavioral Research，46(3)，399-424。  new window
34.Stuart, Elizabeth A.(2010)。Matching Methods for Causal Inference: A Review and a Look Forward。Statistical Science: A Review Journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics，25(1)，1-21。  new window
會議論文
1.李隆安、韓成業(20081219)。The study of weights by the raking method。2008年度中國統計學社學術研討會。台北：中國統計學社。  延伸查詢new window
2.洪永泰(20070508)。台灣地區選前電訪民意調查推估偏差的補救。政治思想、政黨與選舉行為--紀念謝延庚教授學術研討會。台北：台北大學公共行政暨政策學系。  延伸查詢new window
3.洪永泰(2006)。台灣地區電話訪問調查資料加權處理之探討。第六屆調查研究方法與應用國際學術研討會。臺北：中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心暨調查研究專題中心。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.張苙雲、廖培珊(2009)。台灣社會變遷基本調查計畫：第五期第四次調查計畫執行報告。臺北：中央研究院社會學研究所。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Little, Roderick J. A.、Rubin, Donald B.(2002)。Statistical analysis with missing data。John Wiley & Sons。  new window
2.Rosenbaum, Paul R.(2002)。Observational Studies。New York：Springer-Verlag。  new window
3.洪永泰(1996)。戶中選樣之研究。臺北：時英出版社。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Rubin, Donald B.(1987)。Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys。John Wiley & Sons。  new window
其他
1.內政部戶政司(2007)。內政統計年報--人口年齡分配、十五歲以上人口教育程度，http://www.moi.gov.tw/stat/year.aspx， 2008/03/10。  延伸查詢new window
2.行政院研究發展考核委員會(2008)。九十七年數位落差調查報告，http://www.rdec.gov.tw/， 2009/04/01。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.杜素豪、瞿海源、張苙雲(2012)。抽樣調查研究法。社會及行為科學研究法：總論與量化。台北：東華書局。  延伸查詢new window
2.Bethlehem, Jelke、Biffignandi, Silvia(2012)。Weighting Adjustment Techniques。Web Surveys。New York：Wiley。  new window
3.Bethlehem, Jelke、Biffignandi, Silvia(2012)。Use of Response Propensities。Web Surveys。New York：Wiley。  new window
4.Rosenbaum, Paul R.(2005)。Observational Study。Volume 3 Encyclopedia of Statistics in Behavioral Science。New York：John Wiley & Sons。  new window
5.Lee, Sunghee、Valliant, Richard(2008)。Weighting Telephone Samples Using Propensity Scores。Advances in Telephone Survey Methodology。New York：John Wiley & Sons。  new window
 
 
 
 
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