:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:以逐步分解迴歸分析法建構房地產估價模型
書刊名:營建管理季刊
作者:葉怡成丁導民詹巧薇
作者(外文):Yeh, I-chengChien, Kuo-fengChan, Chiao-wei
出版日期:2016
卷期:105
頁次:頁54-70
主題關鍵詞:逐步分解迴歸分析房地產估價Stepwise decompositionRegression analysisReal estateValuation
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:49
  • 點閱點閱:2
本文的目的在於提出一個稱為逐步分解迴歸分析法的新方法,來改善傳統的多變數迴歸分析法的在易理解性、通用性、應用性、模型彈性等方面的缺點。其原理是先假設房地產的每坪單價是供需圈內平均每坪單價與多個因子的無因次的調整係數的連乘積,因此這個方法由最重要的因子開始,逐一分解各因子的調整係數之估計值,並建立各調整係數的預測模型。這個方法包含三個步驟:(1)排序:以排序等分法估計因子的重要性。(2)分解:以逐步分解法建構各因子的調整係數與因子之間的單變數迴歸模型。(3)整合:將各因子的調整係數之迴歸模型整合為勘估標的價格預測模型。本研究的因變數為住宅房屋成交時之每坪單價。自變數有代表運輸功能的影響之距離最近捷運站的距離,代表的生活功能的影響之徒步生活圈內的超商數,代表房子室內居住品質的影響之屋齡,代表市場趨勢的影響之交屋年月,以及表示空間位置的影響的地理位置(縱座標、橫座標)。研究樣本取自台北市的二個行政區,以及新北市的二個行政區,一共四個供需圈,分成四個資料集。結論顯示,逐步分解迴歸分析法比傳統的多變數迴歸分析法有更佳的易理解性、通用性、應用性、模型彈性,並有更高的準確度。
The purpose of this paper is to propose a new method called stepwise decomposition regression analysis method to overcome the shortcomings of traditional multivariate regression analysis in easy understanding, versatility, application, model elasticity and so on. The principle is to assume that the price per unit area of real estate is the average price per unit area of the specific circle of housing supply and demand multiplied by the product of several dimensionless adjustment coefficients of factors. This method starts from the most important factor, then one by one, to decompose the estimated adjustment coefficient of each factor, and build the predictive model for each adjustment coefficient. This method consists of three steps: (1) Sorting: Employ sorting and grouping approach to estimate the importance of the factors. (2) Decomposition: Use the stepwise decomposition approach to construct the single variable regression model for each adjustment coefficients to its factor. (3) Integration: Integrate the adjustment coefficient regression models to a real estate price valuation model. The dependent variable in this study is the residential housing price per unit area. The independent variables include the distance to the nearest MRT station which represents the impact of transportation function, the number of convenience stores in the living circle on foot which represents the impact of living function in the living circle on foot, the age of house which represents the impact of living function in room, the transaction date which represents the impact of market trend, and the geographic coordinates which represent the impact of spatial location. The samples are collected from two districts in Taipei City, and two districts in New Taipei City, totally four circles of supply and demand, and are divided into four data sets. The results show that the stepwise decomposition regression analysis is better in easy understanding, versatility, application, model flexibility, and reach a higher degree of accuracy than conventional multivariate regression analysis.
期刊論文
1.林祖嘉、馬毓駿(20071200)。特徵方程式大量估價法在臺灣不動產市場之應用。住宅學報,16(2),1-22。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.李春長、游淑滿、張維倫(20120600)。公共設施、環境品質與不動產景氣對住宅價格影響之研究--兼論不動產景氣之調節效果。住宅學報,21(1),67-87。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Nguyen, N.、Cripps, A.(2001)。Predicting Housing Value: A Comparison of Multiple Regression Analysis and Artificial Neural Networks。The Journal of Real Estate Research,22(3),313-336。  new window
4.楊曉冬、武永祥(2013)。基於結構方程模型的城市住宅效用價值評價研究。中國軟科學,2013(5),158-166。  延伸查詢new window
5.Antipov, E. A.、Pokryshevskaya, E. B.(2012)。Mass appraisal of residential apartments: An application of Random forest for valuation and a C ART-based approach for model diagnostics。Expert Systems with Applications,39(2),1772-1778。  new window
6.Chun Lin, C.、Mohan, S. B.(2011)。Effectiveness comparison of the residential property mass appraisal methodologies in the USA。International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis,4(3),224-243。  new window
7.Friesen, D.、Patterson, M.、Harmel, B.(2011)。A comparison of multiple regression and neural networks for forecasting real estate values。Reg. Bus. Rev.,30,114-136。  new window
8.Gerek, I. H.(2014)。House selling price assessment using two different adaptive neuro-fuzzy techniques。Automation in Construction,41,33-39。  new window
9.LIU, X. S.、Zhe, D. E. N. G.、WANG, T. L.(2011)。Real estate appraisal system based on GIS and BP neural network。Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China,21,s626-s630。  new window
10.McCluskey, W.、Davis, P.、Haran, M.、McCord, M.、Mcllhatton, D.(2012)。The potential of artificial neural networks in mass appraisal: the case revisited。Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction,17(3),274-292。  new window
11.McCluskey, W. J.、McCord, M.、Davis, P. T.、Haran, M.、Mcllhatton, D.(2013)。Prediction accuracy in mass appraisal: a comparison of modem approaches。Journal of Property Research,30(4),239-265。  new window
12.Mimis, A.、Rovolis, A.、Stamou, M.(2013)。Property valuation with artificial neural network: the case of Athens。Journal of Property Research,30(2),128-143。  new window
13.Zurada, J.、Levitan, A.、Guan, J.(2011)。A comparison of regression and artificial intelligence methods in a mass appraisal context。Journal of Real Estate Research,33(3),349-387。  new window
14.Peterson, S.、Flanagan, A. B.(2009)。Neural network hedonic pricing models in mass real estate appraisal。Journal of Real Estate Research,31(2),147-164。  new window
15.楊宗憲、蘇倖慧(20111200)。迎毗設施與鄰避設施對住宅價格影響之研究。住宅學報,20(2),61-80。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.蔡瑞煌、高明志、張金鶚(19990800)。類神經網路應用於房地產估價之研究。住宅學報,8,1-20。new window  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.劉時旭(2012)。類神經網路應用於法拍不動產估價(碩士論文)。國立中興大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.賴碧瑩(2014)。現代不動產估價理論與實務。智勝文化。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.林伯宜(2011)。本土化不動產估價。台北:文笙書局。  延伸查詢new window
3.卓輝華(2010)。不動產估價。台北:五南圖書出版股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
4.柴強(2012)。房地產估價。北京:首都經濟貿易大學出版社。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
:::
無相關書籍
 
無相關著作
 
QR Code
QRCODE