本文基於台灣稻米因實施保價收購政策，市場失衡之假設，應用市場失衡
理論，建立台灣稻米市場失衡模型，利用有限訊息最大概似法(LIML)估計
之，並考量GATT農業協議之規範，進行政策模擬，分析未來稻米價格政策
的走向，供政府有關當局決策之參考。茲將本研究主要的結果摘述如下
：1.台灣稻米自1974年設置「糧食平準基金」，實施保價收購政策之結果
，對掌握糧源及提高農民所得等，具有正面之效果，但就整體社會福利及
消費者而言，則有不利的影響。2.本文利用AR1及LIML估計稻米市場失衡
模型中各方程式之參數，估計的結果，除解釋能力與配適度均相當良好，
預測能力甚強，適合政策模擬分析之用外，稻米的產量及需求均顯著的受
價格調整變數的影響，致使該變數可作為稻米市場供需失衡的有效管理工
具。3.本文估算稻米供需失衡價格調整係數的結果，證實稻米市場確有失
衡的現象，顯示本文的研究假說(Hypothesis)是對的。此一結果，開拓稻
米市場研究的領域，今後稻米市場之研究，不限於市場均衡理論之應用，
亦可採用市場失衡理論。4.依據本文設立的假設及形成的政策方案，模擬
分析的結果，發現未來若依日本模式限量進口，則以維持現有的稻米政策
及雜糧既定政策為較佳。依此換算未來限量進口六年期滿，稻米的產量、
需求量及價格均會減少或下跌，有助於提升資源的配置效率及社會福利，
顯示目前政府所規劃的稻米價格政策是對的。綜合上述的研究結果，由於
本文利用市場失衡理論，未能求解均衡價格，本文嚐試利用虛擬均衡求解
法，倘虛擬均衡求解之假設為合理，則上述之研究結果尚稱滿意。否則，
今後對失衡理論的應用及本研究結果之引用，應注意此問題。

The purpose of this study is to simulate the rice policies via
the application of market disequilibrium theory.The estimation
method employed the limited information maximum likelehood(LIML)
to evaluate the rice market disequilibrium model,including the
equations of rice demamd and supply and the new regulations of
agriculture of the General Agreement of Trade and Traiffs(GATT).
The data used by this study were secondary one and came from the
various government publications.The period of annual data was
from 1961 to 1995.There are some major findings from the results
of this study.Firstly, the rice market has the fact of market
disequilibrium due to impose the rice purchase program through
the price guaranteed by government on Taiwan rice market.
Secondly, if Taiwan area becomes a member of World Trade
Organization (WTO) and follows the limited imports of Japan''s
type, then the reasonable rice policy is to keep the current
planned farm policy in Taiwan, i.e.,cancel the subsidies of
feedgrains and relase 10％of quantity of rice imported to the
private rice market.According to the results of this paper,we
may get some implications to the empirical study on Taiwan rice
economics.First of all is very important to apply the theory of
market disequilibrium to analyze the rice economics in Taiwan.
That is to say, we have the other approach to study them, but
the analytic approach is not only a limitation to the theory of
market equilibrium.There is a notion that this study first time
tried to use the method of simulating equilibrium prices to
overcome the problem with unsolutions to the equilibrium prices
under the case disequilibrium. Hence, the results of this study
was affected by this method. This situation may become a
drawback to this study.