近年來，台灣地區隨著經濟成長以及國民所得逐年提高，民生及產
業用電伴隨之大幅 成長。由於電力具有不易儲存的特性，因而在無存貨
可資備用的情形下，對於電力的需求 往往需要即時的生產以滿足之，然
而電廠的規劃與興建需要較長的前置時間，因此如何事 先準確地預測未
來的電力需求，並輔之以適當的電源開發，將是電力事業所必須面臨的考
驗。就現階段台灣地區負載預測制度而言，預測的型態著重於總體負載預
測；然而即使總 體負載預測能準確地預測出電力負載，但卻無法得知負
載發生之所在，此舉亦無助於電廠 設置之選擇以及輸、配電線路之建設
。基於上述的說明，本研究之主旨有二：首先，根據 台灣各區域的發展
狀況設立區域電力負載預測模式，用以推估各區域未來電力需求之情形
；再者，根據區域性電力需求之情況以及各電力供給潛在來源，利用多目
標規劃模式建立 電力供需規劃模式，藉以作為電力供給面規劃之依據，
研究結果並可供電力輸、配線路等 基礎建設以及決策單位未來審核獨立
發電業之參考。 根據負載預測研究結果顯示，中部地區、雲嘉地區
與台南地區未來十年用電平均成長 率分別為6.69%、5.98%與6.25%，高於
臺灣整體用電平均成長率5.27%，因此如何事先規劃 上述三地區的電力相
關設施以確保供電品質，值得有關單位加以重視。 藉由規劃模型之
模擬分析顯示，民營電廠加入對台電公司火力機組的使用率將造成影 響
；其中台電公司燃氣機組之容量因素將由84年的58％降至90年的50％，95
年時更降至16 ％，為受民營電廠加入營運影響最大者。 就最適發電
方案之研擬而言，在缺乏有效政策工具可供規範的情形下，開放競爭由市
場自行決定供電結構的方案仍是可行的妥協方案。而根據機組運轉特性之
分析，未來針對 發電能源配比之規劃，若以其運轉特性為主，則在政策
的執行上應較具彈性及可行性。

An increasing amount of electricity is required in Taiwan
in light ofcontinuous economic growth. Electricity power is one
of the major input factorsin economic development. To
continually support the economic to growth andmeet power
requirements in the future, load forecasting has become
veryimportant for electric utilities. Moreover, an accurate
load forecast can behelpful in developing a power supply
strategy, financing planning, marketresearch, and electricity
management. Up to now, generalstyles of loadforecasting
emphasized on aggregate or sector load forecasting in Taiwan,but
aggregate or sector load forecasting can not predict where the
loadtakes place and not be helpful in transmission line or
substation construction. Therefore, this study tries to
predict regional electricity demand andelectric load. And
further, based on the objectives of reliability andeconomics,
this study also tries to setup a multiobjective programming
modelto formulate the optimal electricity supple system in order
to increase thereliability of power supply in Taiwan. Results of
this study could be thebasis for decision makers to formulate
electricity supply in the future. From the forecasting
results of this study, power needs in Yanlin, Chiayi,Tainan
areas and middle area of Taiwan would increase faster than those
in therest areas of Taiwan. How to program electricity
infrastructure in theseareas to promote the quality of power
supply would merit attentions. From the planning results of
this study, the unit power generation ofIndependent Power
Production (IPP) would affect the usage rate of Taipower''
sthermal units. Among all kinds of thermal units, Taipower''s
gas-fired unitswould be the most influenced units because of
IPP''s power generation. Theaverage capacity factor of Taipower''s
gas-fired units were 58% in 1995, wouldreduce to 50% in 2001,
and 16% in 2006. For the optimal power generation plans in
the future, the scheme of opencompetitive to decide the power
supply structure would be a practicable plan.If the policy that
programs the generation mixes based on the characteristicsof
power unit operation, it would be more inflexible and workable
in policyimplementing.