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題名:運輸投資對區域經濟影響之研究--多區域投入產出模式運輸案例之運用
作者:詹達穎
作者(外文):DAR-YING,JAN
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:交通管理學系
指導教授:姜渝生
凌瑞賢
學位類別:博士
出版日期:1999
主題關鍵詞:多區域投入產出模型多區域投入產出價格模型產業關聯程度表衝擊影響分析RAS法多項羅吉特模式區域間依存度分析Multiregional input-output modelMultiregional input-output price modelInterregional interdependence coefficients tableImpact analysisRAS methodMultinomial logit modelInterregional interdependence analysis
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台灣地區近五十年來,經濟快速成長,產業結構產生巨大的變化。政府為了配合國家未來發展需要及促進區域均衡發展,相當致力於運輸系統之規劃及建設,從民國六十年代之十大建設,到八十年代之六年國建,冀望提升競爭力,帶動整體經濟之成長。而政府為了了解台灣地區各區域各產業之經濟狀況,包括投入結構、產品分配、區域間產品交流及各產業之相互關聯情形,曾編製區域產業關聯表;惟民國70年後並未再繼續編製區域產業關聯表,殊為可惜。
本研究針對運輸投資與區域發展之關係,以多區域投入產出模型為工具,分析政府之重大運輸投資對區域經濟之影響。為了更新區域產業關聯表,收集民國83年各區域相關資料,以RAS法推估83年區域投入係數表;並利用70年之區域交易係數及區域間相關資料,結合LSG模式及羅吉特模式,推估83年之區域交易係數,而建立區域間產業關聯程度表。以之進行重大運輸建設投資對區域產業之衝擊影響分析,並利用最小上界法、區域間回饋指標及區域回饋環路分析,來了解區域間交易相互依存程度。
實證分析之結果顯示:(1)民國83年至100年間之重大運輸建設投資,北部區域投資佔36.80%,而其經濟效果達40.41%以上;其次為南部區域,中部區域和東部區域。產業中以營造業、電力及電子機械器材製造修配業、服務事業、機械設備製造修配業、商業、金屬基本工業、礦業及土石採取業、塑膠製品製造業所受之影響最大。(2)各區域重大運輸建設之波及效果,包括產出效果、所得效果、就業效果等,相當程度呈現集中於北部區域之現象,反映了北部為經濟發展重心之現象。東部區域由於投資較小,波及效果比較上甚大,故各項乘數值相當高。(3)運輸建設之中二高、東西向、西濱及北宜等高、快速公路預計民國92年完成,區域間運輸時間可節省20-26.4%,轉換為產業之附加價值,將對國內生產毛額產生5.93%之貢獻。(4)區域間之交易依賴程度,民國65年高於70年,而民國83年又高於65年。(5)區域回饋環路分析中顯示,65年區域間交易達19.67%,70年達20.97%,83年達23.66%,其區域間交易以北部區域為中心,為成雙加總環路,顯示各區域交易依存度提高。
There has been a high economic growth rate in Taiwan during the past fifty years.The industrial structure has changed from agriculture to manufacturing. From the Ten Construction in the 1960’s to the Country Construction Six Year Plan in the 1990’s, the government has devoted to transportation projects. Their goal is to promote competition and economic growth.
In order to examine the industrial structure in Taiwan, that include input structure, product distribution, interregional commodity flow, and industrial interdependence, the government has built the regional input-output table . Unfortunately, there has been no regional input-output table published since 1981.
This study is an attempt to investigate the impact of transportation investments on regional economics. The impact and multiplier analysis was performed through multiregional input-output model. First, we need to estimate the input coefficients and the trade coefficients to update the multiregional input-output table of 1994. We then use the impact and multiplier analysis to forecast the change of output, income, and employment in each region of Taiwan. We use the RAS method to update the regional input coefficients and calibrate the LSG model and the multinomial logit model to estimate the trade coefficients. We then update the multiregional input-output table and forecast the impact of transportation investments on regional economics. Finally, we use the least upper bound, interregional feedback index, and regional feedback loops analysis to investigate the interregional transactions interdependence.
The major findings include: (1)In the Northern region, transportation investments from 1994 to 2011 have 36.80% of total transportation investments and have 40.41% of total output effects. The key effected industries would be Construction, Electrical Machinery and Apparatus, Electronic Products, Service, Machinery Equipment, Wholesale and Retail Trade, Basic Metal, Mining and Quarrying, and Rubber Products.(2)The impact and spread effects of the transportation investments in each region have been centralized in the Northern region. The Northern region is the core of the economic development in Taiwan. The Eastern region has the high multipliers because of the low investments and the high effects from other regions.(3)The construction of the second freeway, the east-west expressway, and the west coast expressway will be completed by 2013. The interregional transactions will saved 20-26.4% of travel time.There has been produced 5.93% of the gross domestic product by saving transportation costs.(4)The interdependence of the interregional transactions of 1976 was higher than that of 1981, and 1994 was higher than that of 1976. (5)The results of regional feedback loops show that the interregional transactions were 19.67% of all transactions in 1976, 20.97% in 1981, and 23.66% in 1994. The Northern region is the core of the interregional transactions. The patterns of interaction become complex although there are simple bi-lateral flows in evidence.
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