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題名:小型開放體系的貨幣法則
作者:林枚吟
作者(外文):Mei-Yin Lin
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:經濟學研究所
指導教授:毛慶生
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2000
主題關鍵詞:貨幣政策貨幣法則匯率模型monetary policymonetary ruleexchange rate modelMcCallum''s rule
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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中央銀行的貨幣政策必須兼顧總體經濟與匯率安定等多重目標,
因此本文探討是否能設計一套貨幣供給法則,以物價與所得的穩定為
前提,同時達成外匯市場的安定。此一貨幣法則類似 McCallum 的「
貨幣基數成長率法則」,以貨幣基數做為操作目標,除了考慮經濟長
期成長趨勢及金融創新、技術進步的結構變化因素外,並根據目標變
數的短期波動,允許貨幣當局採取積極回應的措施。這套貨幣法則並
不是針對特定總體模型而設計的,我們分別在實質景氣循環模型、突
發性貨幣干擾模型及凱因斯學派模型等不同設定下,檢驗上述政策法
則的表現。根據本文的模擬結果,這套貨幣法則在不同結構模型下,
均能達成控制物價及穩定所得的政策目標。但是就匯率穩定的目標而
言,其與中央銀行實際貨幣供給政策的效果差異並不太大。若考慮貨
幣法則施行時的行政成本與資訊成本,則同時穩定名目所得與匯率的
貨幣法則是否值得付諸實行,仍有待更嚴謹的評估。
This paper investigates the performance of a monetary
rule (suggested by Bennett McCallum) that sets the monetary
base to keep nominal GDP growing at a noninflationary rate.
Moreover, we modify the monetary rule to respond to the
varation of stock price or exchange rate. The simulation
results indicate that the basic rule could be an improvement
in smoothing niminal GDP over a discretionary policy.
Hiwever, the effects in stabilizing the stock market and
foreign exchange market are insignificant.
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