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題名:甘迺迪政府暫緩推動「兩個中國」之決策過程
作者:楊燿誠 引用關係
作者(外文):Yao-Cheng Yang
校院名稱:淡江大學
系所名稱:美國研究所
指導教授:陳-新
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2001
主題關鍵詞:一個中國政策兩個中國提案( 政策)組織行為模式官僚政治模式理性行為模式One-China policyTwo-China proposal ( policy )Organizational behavior modelBureaucratic politics modelRational Actor model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本論文運用艾里遜教授三個決策理論模式,組織行為模式、官僚政治模式及理性行為模式,來檢驗筆者所提出的假設,進而運用此三個模式分析並追蹤甘迺迪為何在第一任期內並未改變「一個中國」原則甚或暫緩推動「兩個中國」之決策過程。本論文研究結果顯示其中任何一項模式,均無法單獨說明決策過程的全貌,但逐一運用此三項模式,卻能使本論文主題的決策過程更為凸顯,並且更有助於發覺真相。
在歷史文獻資料的彙整上,筆者使用了包括當時中美雙方決策人物的回憶錄、手稿、國務院出版解密的文件檔案,以及甘迺迪圖書館、華府國家檔案局及國會圖書館等典藏的第一手原始文獻。
從己公開的相關解密檔案資料顯示,中國政策的議題談不上是當時急迫的外交選項,但在甘迺迪心目中承認中共政權卻似乎是早晚之事。甘迺迪總統為何心中會有推動「兩個中國」的想法,而最後卻又決定暫緩推動。其中不同的變數因素即是本研究的探討重點。而本論文的研究目的,乃期待將這段在美國也許不太受到重視但對中華民國卻十分重要的中美關係史實,藉由當前檔案真相的公佈而將之還原。
在此必須強調的是,本論文根據理論與假設,最終驗證了甘迺迪政府當時若採行「兩個中國」原則,未必會為美國帶來更多的國家利益。最後,筆者願用一句話的說明以作為本論文的結論。即在魯斯克提議推動「兩個中國」的建言下,引發甘迺迪進一步研究的興趣,但因其人格特質、個性及其他國內外因素,終於使他作出至少暫時維持「一個中國」的決定。
This dissertation intends to apply to Graham Allison’s three decision-making models: organizational behavior model, bureaucratic politics model and rational actor model, to the theory-confirming as well as hypothesis-generating, and to analyze the decision-making process of why President Kennedy in his first term, remained unchanged toward the One-China policy and aborted Two-China policy. As shown, this dissertation has proven the fact that not one of three models can completely explain the whole framework of this dissertation, but has spotlighted and clarified, with much understanding, the whole process of decision-making if properly used.
The collection of historical documents and materials, including memoirs and manuscripts of top decision-makers, declassified archives, and first-hand materials from the Kennedy Library in Boston, Library of Congress and National Archives in Washington D.C. will become essential and indispensable in the process of this study.
It seems safe to say that the China issue was not urgent among the foreign affairs alternatives during the Kennedy Administration. However, the recognition of Communist China appeared to come true, sooner or later, in JFK’s mind. The main purpose of this study is try to find what variables the Two-China proposal had that finally made JFK abort the policy during his first term, and to make this vitally historical yet hidden period between R.O.C. and the United States become open and obvious through some declassified materials.
Based on theories and hypotheses, this dissertation confirms that if Kennedy Administration had adopted Two-China policy, it would not have obtained more national interests. In other words, the Two-China issue through Rusk suggestion intrigued JFK, but some reasons such as his personality, leadership, as well as domestic and international factors, prevented Kennedy from further promting the Two-China policy.
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