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題名：港埠經營業者與貨櫃航商夥伴關係風險分析模式之建立與應用
作者：曹至宏
作者(外文)：Chih-Hong Tsao
校院名稱：國立交通大學
系所名稱：交通運輸研究所
指導教授：馮正民
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2004
主題關鍵詞：夥伴關係；風險分析；蒙地卡羅模擬；關係行銷策略；Partnership；Risk analysis；Mote-Carlo simulation；relationship marketing strategy
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面對市場競爭，貨櫃航商及港埠經營業者有必要研擬構建夥伴關係作為其發展之策略。然而，有關夥伴關係之成敗，「風險」乃其核心的議題。因此，本研究嘗試建立一套夥伴關係風險分析模式以衡量及評估港埠經營業者及貨櫃航商在夥伴關係之風險狀況。本研究首先定義三種夥伴關係類型、考慮四個風險因子及兩個夥伴關係生命週期，藉此發展出以港埠經營者為觀點之風險分析模式。
本研究首先定義風險為決策者主觀與客觀獲利之落差除以標準差，同時將夥伴關係區分為無資源涉入型(NRI)、資源涉入型(RI)及交叉資源涉入型(RCI)夥伴關係。至於風險因子則歸納為缺乏相互依賴、缺乏溝通、缺乏價值分享及對方片面投機行為四項，利用關係構建期及關係存續期兩個夥伴關係生命週期表現風險之隨機過程。
本研究以一個港埠經營者與一個貨櫃航商結盟作為基本之情境，並可擴展至與多個貨櫃航商結盟。模式是透過問卷調查及深度訪談獲得模式所需參數，並採用蒙地卡羅模擬分析法加以分析。經實例分析後發現：在資源涉入及交叉資源涉入型夥伴關係會隨著結盟之貨櫃航商市場佔有率愈高，而使港埠經營業者之風險增大。當港埠經營者與多家貨櫃航商以無資源涉入型結盟時，風險會隨著市場佔有率之增加而增加，但有規模遞減之現象；相反地，當港埠經營者與一家貨櫃航商以交叉資源涉入型結盟時，則會隨著市場佔有率之增加而使風險減少。此項研究結果，將有助於港埠經營者分析與多家貨櫃航商構建夥伴關係時之風險，並藉此評估結果發展雙方之關係行銷策略。
Facing the market competition, it is essential for port operators and container carriers building the partnership as their development strategy. Since risk is the core issue for the success or failure of the partnership, this study first defines three types of partnering, considers four risk factors and formulates two stages of risk process, and then develops a risk analysis model from the viewpoint of one port operator.
In this study, risk is defined as the gap between subjective and objective expected profits divided by standard deviation. Three types of partnership are classified by the resource allocations, that is the ‘no resource-involving’ (NRI) partnership, the ‘resources-involving’ (RI) partnership, and the ‘resources crossly-involved’ (RCI) partnership. Four risk factors include lack of interdependence level, lack of objectives consensus, lack of information sharing, and speculation behavior. Two stages of the ‘construction’ and ‘maintenance’ phases are identified as the life cycle of partnership to express the stochastic risk process.
The partnership between one container carrier and one port operators is the basic scenario of the study. This basic scenario can be extended to multiple container carriers. We use Mote-Carlo simulation for the case study, while some parameters of the risk model are obtained through questionnaire and interviews. It is found that the container carrier with more market share may take more risk in RI and RCI partnering with port operator. The risk will be increased with decreasing rate when port operator NRI partnering with multiple container carriers. On the contrary, the risk for port operator to corporate with single container carrier in RCI partnership will be decreased. The results of this study could help a port operator to evaluate the partnership risk with multiple container carriers and to develop the relationship marketing strategies.
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