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題名:優惠性原產地規則對我國農業之影響-以台尼自由貿易協定為例
作者:杜芳秋 引用關係
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:農業經濟學研究所
指導教授:徐世勳
楊光華
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2005
主題關鍵詞:自由貿易協定優惠性原產地規則轉運農業部門模型
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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為順應全球區域主義盛行之趨勢,我國目前除於2003年與巴拿馬完成台巴自由貿易協定(FTA)外,預計將於今年(2005)上半年與尼加拉瓜簽署台尼FTA。由於在自由貿易協定中各會員國仍可維持對外關稅,在此一特性下,將促使不同區域的廠商有誘因進行價格之套利行為,亦即第三國廠商有可能利用自由貿易協定以進行違規「轉運」,而坐享我國市場開放之利益(free rider)。因此本文主要目的在於研究我國與尼加拉瓜簽署自由貿易協定後,在優惠性原產地規則確實執行與未能有效防堵轉運發生等兩種情境下,評估其對我國農作物與畜產品之影響。在實證模擬方法的選擇上,本文係以台灣農業部門模型作為研究的方法,並進而設計出三種模擬方案,包括(一)方案一:台尼FTA原產地規則確實執行、(二)方案二:中美洲五國(CACM)透過尼加拉瓜進行轉運以及(三)方案三:美洲地區(FTAA)透過尼加拉瓜進行轉運等情況。
本文之研究結果如下:(一)在方案一原產地規則確實執行下,除牛肉將完全被進口品取代外,我國與尼加拉瓜簽署自由貿易協定對我國畜產品與農作物影響不大。整體而言,農業總產值將減少2312百萬元(與2003年之基期年相比,約下降0.8%),其中農作物的產值下降幅度大於畜產品的降幅。至於整體社會福利將增加7985百萬元(與基期年相比,約上升0.28%)。(二)方案二及方案三考慮來自CACM及FTAA之轉運發生時,除牛肉亦將完全被進口品取代外,整體而言,各產業在方案三的衝擊均大於方案二之衝擊。其中,就農業總產值而言,方案二及方案三將分別減少11140及14592百萬元(與基期年相比,約下降3.84%及5.02%)。值得注意的是,在方案二及方案三下的畜產品產值下降幅度均大於農作物的降幅。此乃由於轉運發生後將增加畜產品的進口所致。若就整體社會福利來看,在方案二和三中,消費者剩餘分別增加了531億元和629億元,而生產者剩餘則分別損失約361億元和378億元。不過,台灣整體社會的福利將因此分別增加了169億元和249億元,其變動幅度約在+0.59%與+0.86%之間。
根據本研究對優惠性原產地規則之法規與實證分析,未來農政主管單位在制訂台尼優惠性原產地規則時,本研究提出下列的建議:(一)以台巴原產地規則作為台尼原產地規則之範本,(二)加強食品安全檢驗與動植物防疫檢疫措施之執行,(三)善用「進口防衛」措施,(四)建立進口農產價格與數量資訊服務系統,(五)訴諸「爭端解決機制」之管道等。
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