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題名：由兵力耗損理論探討近代重大戰役之研究
作者：唐文漢
作者(外文)：Wen-Han Tang
校院名稱：國立交通大學
系所名稱：科技管理研究所
指導教授：洪志洋
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2006
主題關鍵詞：孫子兵法；戰爭論；蘭徹斯特方程式；阿登戰役；Lanchaster equation；War game；Sun Tzu；On War；Ardennes Campaign
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戰爭是人類社會普遍存在的一種現象，戰爭的特質是交戰雙方意志的衝撞。戰爭是猛烈艱難的工作，危險是其基本的特性。戰爭行為顯而易見的印象是危險，而人類對此危險的反應是恐懼。因其改變國家之命運與國家間的秩序，對人類社會的影響既深且鉅，故交戰雙方都希望藉由瞭解敵軍的戰術、戰略層次及作戰目標，而獲取預想的利益。並試圖為下次作戰找出有利的戰爭條件和方法。
因此中國的孫子兵法始計篇開宗明義就闡述：兵者，國之大事，死生之地，存亡之道，不可不察也。又云：夫未戰而廟算勝者，得算多也；未戰而廟算不勝者，得算少也。多算勝少算不勝，而況於無算乎。謀攻篇提及知勝者有五：知可以戰與不可以戰者勝，識眾寡之用者勝，上下同欲者勝，以虞待不虞者勝，將能而君不缷者勝。此五者，知勝之道也。故曰：知己知彼，百戰不殆；不知彼而知，己一勝一負；不知彼不知己，每戰必敗。
克勞塞維茨在戰爭論中曾說：任何理論的主要目的乃在澄清已然困惑不清與糾葛難解的構想及理念；除非已對一些名詞與構想的意義加以界定，否則無人能在此方面獲得任何進展。如有人認為上述說明不具任何意義，則其不是全然無法接受理論上的分析，就是從未接觸到有關戰爭遂行的各種令人困惑而又相互排斥的理念。事實上，理論固然無法提供解決問題的公式，也不能作為據以找出唯一解決方案的原則，但卻能使人深入了解各種紛亂的現象與關係，俾將之提升為更高層次的行動範疇。所以對理念加以釐清、探討與分析，自有其必要性。克勞塞維茨在戰爭論中又說：攻擊和防禦在戰爭是相互作用的狀態和反應。在進攻和防禦之間轉換將有一段時間的間距很難定義。
人類長久以來一直透過各種技術發展或科學計算，確切解決對戰爭結果的期盼。不論是實兵對抗操演、賽局理論、傳統沙盤推演、新興科技電腦兵棋模擬與蘭徹斯特方程式之解析…等均屬之。近代軍事科技最大的成就不是建造出多麼新穎的武器裝備，而是藉由軟體與硬體的結合，綿密的管理機制，瞭解戰爭與制止戰爭的發生，此乃科技管理運用於軍事層面最佳管理意涵寫照。
於是本研究根據以上的需求，透過第二次世界大戰著名的阿登戰役為事例，藉由著名軍事戰略理論引證、相關戰史討論與文獻蒐整後。進一步著手修改蘭徹斯特平方定律模式。所獲致的成果，除了探討出該模式較符合現代戰爭的型態與精確的交戰雙方兵力損耗外，更進一步透過實證分析，對於兩軍攻守交替的時間問題，作出較合理與適切的說明。
The war is the human society universal existence one kind of phenomenon; the war special characteristic is joins battle bilateral will dashing. No matter whether history repeats itself or not, we still can learn a lot of useful lessons from it. People have been interested in studying and analyzing historical warfare for thousands of years.
China's Sun Tzu first chapter said: military action is important to the nation, it is the ground of death and life, the path of survival and destruction, so it is imperative to examine it. The one who figures on inability to prevail at headquarters before doing battle is the one who has the least strategic factors in his side. The one with many strategic factors in his favor wins, the one with few strategic factors in his favor. Observing the matter in this way, I can see who will win and who will lose. The third chapter also said: so it is said that if you know others and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know others but know yourself, you win one and lose one; if you do not know others and do not know yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle.
The war is the violent difficult work; the danger is its basic characteristic. The average person to the war impression, is similar to the humanity regarding the dangerous response is a fear. Joins battle both sides both to hope the affiliation by the attack enemy troop each kind of different social stratum goal, but gains the expectation the benefit. Since the humanity has been long-time continuously penetrates each kind of technological development or the science computation, hopes to accurate solution to war result.
General Karl Von Clausewitz says in his book On War that attack and defend are a pair of concepts for mutual action and reaction. He considered that defense is more than passive waiting and resistance. The best defense must include the swift and vigorous assumption of the offense. In the shift between offense and defense is a period of deadlock during which both sides seek to seize a key strongpoint, collect intelligence and set up logistics and draw up the next operation plan. Previous researchers did not consider the deadlock of the shift between attack and defense.
General Karl Von Clausewitz believes that offense and defense in warfare are a state of interaction and response. The transition between offense and defense will have a short span of time difficult to define.
No matter is the real troops maneuvers, the game theory, the tradition war game drill, the hi-tech computer war game simulation and so on is it with Lanchaster equation. In this research, we try to improve Bracken’s and Chen’s work to significantly better fit our extended Lanchester model into the Ardennes Campaign live data. And after revising Lanchester equation, joins battle the bilateral military strength loss besides the discussion, further penetrates the real diagnosis analysis discussion both armies offense and defense in transation question. Realizing that the rapid increase in hi-technology is going to affect warfare, the armed forces are transforming themselves for the digital age. They need analytic tools to help make the best choices possible, and chief among these are good measures of effectiveness that can demonstrate the value of information in terms of military outcomes.
The contemporary greatest military achievement is not to construct the greatest weaponry, but is to affiliate the unification of software and hardware machinery with the thoughtful management mechanism to prevent the war from happening.This is precisely our diligently goal.
In this research, we try to improve Bracken’s and Chen’s work to significantly better fit our extended Lanchester model into the Ardennes Campaign live data. According to our numerical experimental result, we improved Bracken’s work by 39.26%, and Chen’s work by 19.51%.The contribution of this research is that we propose a much better qualitative analysis model for the explanation of modern combat.
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