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題名:技術前瞻領域選擇之類型
作者:謝志宏 引用關係
作者(外文):Chih-Hung, Hsieh
校院名稱:國立交通大學
系所名稱:科技管理研究所
指導教授:袁建中
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2006
主題關鍵詞:技術前瞻領域選擇選擇類型歸納法文獻回顧Technology foresightArea SelectionTypologyInductionLiterature review
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 點閱點閱:37
本研究的主要貢獻,在於建構一套技術前瞻領域選擇的六個基本類型,以數個技術前瞻個案實證這些基本類型的適用性,並說明領域選擇類型的發展趨勢。
Johnston (2001)說過:「缺乏聚焦,是前瞻活動當中最大的風險之一」,說明選取適當的前瞻範疇是重要的;Kuwahara (2005)更指出:「日本未能準確預測出奈米及資訊科技(IT)興起,而無法有效因應歐美科技上的改變做好準備」,可見領域的選擇何其重要!但是,2005年之前僅有少許文獻研究相關的議題。那麼,領域選擇到底有哪些選擇的類型?他們的特性為何?目前領域選擇的趨勢為何?…等,尚待釐清,使以衍生本研究。
從回顧1984年至2005年技術前瞻文獻中可以發現。技術前瞻的層級可以區分為全球、地區、國家、產業、法人、企業等層級,或者區分為國會/總統層級與行政部會層級;時間多以前瞻十年至二十年為多;目的以有系統的分析中長期願景、形成國家策略、科技政策、資源優序等為主;參與者從政府官員、專家、研究單位、學界、產業界、公司、非政府組織、社會大眾等8種類型。方法論上,仍以德菲法及情境分析法為主要工具,但2003年以後開始有學者嘗試整合多種方法論或導入新工具等研究,但仍屬於概念或實驗性質。
再從分析各國技術前瞻案例中可以發現。領域選擇的範疇(大小)與國家的經濟規模或科技資源並無直接關聯性,而是與決策者的企圖心與專家共識達成程度有關;參與成員方面,由少數專家參與前瞻活動,目前也有逐步增加參與者範疇至大眾媒體、一般社會精英、非政府組織等趨勢。也因此。領域選擇的目標及評估選擇也邁向多元化;方法論上,領域選擇與評估的方法逐漸改變,由原本人作選擇的方式,朝向以工具如:電腦、網路、資料庫及電子平台等,協助人作選擇或部份工具作選擇等方向上發展,尤其是應用電子平台方面的研究。
本研究分析與整理以上文獻之後,提出整體趨勢、部份領域趨勢、願景發展、關鍵技術趨勢、技術及需求導向、重要需求導向等六個技術前瞻領域選擇的基本類型(類型1至類型6)。並從整理台灣過去的前瞻活動中,以個案為基礎以適當方法進行領域選擇,藉此以驗證幾種領域選擇類型的適用性,並提出領域選擇的幾項建議。
The major contribution of this dissertation is to propose six types of area selection for technology foresight. Three empirical studies of Taiwan are proposed to illustrate the usefulness of this typology.
The selection process of technology foresight area involves an identification of goals, objectives and criteria, which vary between actors participating in foresight activities. Judging from literature review from 1984 to 2005 worldwide, this research found that the area selection of a country is independent from her S&T resources and economic power (hence, small countries could have broad selected fields); another, the methodology for area selection is changing from the people-selection model to tools-assistance selection model (thus, the application of IT tools is important). Broader actors participate in foresight activity; complex criteria involve in the evaluation and selection of foresight fields.
Finally, this research builds up a typology of the area selection and apply it to three empirical case studies to examine its usefulness. Some conclusions and suggestions are also proposed in the last section of this dissertation for further studies and discussions.
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