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題名：具網路外部性需求函數之研究及其於廠商策略與擴散模型之應用
作者：潘金谷
作者(外文)：Jin-Gu Pan
校院名稱：國立東華大學
系所名稱：經濟學系
指導教授：褚志鵬
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2006
主題關鍵詞：網路外部性；需求函數；關鍵存續量；產品定位；相容性；擴散模型；network externality；demand function；critical mass；product positioning；compatibility；diffusion model
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本研究首先以Katz and Shapiro (1985)研究中所定義考慮網路外部性 (network externality)下消費者效用函數特徵設定為基礎，引入消費者異質偏好設定，重新闡述「完全預期 (fulfilled expectation)」與「關鍵存續量 (critical mass)」之意涵，進而求導考慮網路外部性影響下之市場需求函數。本研究所得市場需求函數特徵有三： (1).在市場完全資訊 (perfect information)下，透過消費者「預期調整過程 (expectation adjustment process)」將可達到穩定之真實市場規模； (2).對 Rohlfs (1974)與 Economides (1996a)所提出市場需求函數在網路外部性影響下為倒U型的結論，本研究認為應修正為一負斜率之不連續凹函數； (3).產品之關鍵存續量與產品內在特性有關，且與產品價格呈正相關。
本研究進一步以所推導之網路外部性需求函數為基礎，分別探討 (1).獨佔市場廠商的最適產品定位 (product positioning)與定價策略；及 (2).雙佔市場廠商在產品相容性差異下的最適價格競爭策略。
在獨佔市場廠商方面，本研究發現 (1).考慮產品網路外部性下，廠商最適定價較不考慮（忽略）網路外部性時為高；與 (2).當獨佔廠商可內生選擇產品定位與價格時，廠商將傾向將產品定位於中間區段且產品價格、產品網路規模與利潤均可提高。
在極大化差異之雙佔市場廠商方面，本研究發現 (1).於部分覆蓋之市場架構下： (a).選擇「單向相容 (one-way compatible)」之廠商可採取較高定價，並獲得較高網路規模與利潤；且隨產品相容程度成正向相關。 (b).當兩廠商選擇「完全相容 (compatible)」或「完全不相容 (incompatible)」時，此時廠商將採相同定價，且兩產品網路規模且利潤相等。此外，當廠商選擇完全相容策略下，產品定價、產品網路規模與利潤均較完全不相容時為高。 (c).廠商可透過選擇相容於另一產品而無須考慮其關鍵存續量。與 (2).於完全覆蓋市場架構下，廠商是否發生削價競爭需視兩廠商基本效用之差距而定： (a).若兩產品基本效用差異較大則存在Nash- Bertrand價格競爭均衡，此時產品基本效用較高之廠商定價較高。 (b).若兩產品基本效用差異較小則存在「無削價均衡 (undercut-proof equilibrium, UPE)」，此時兩廠商定價相同。
最後本研究參考 Bass擴散模型 (diffusion model)概念，結合所提之需求函數與 Jain and Rao (1990)考慮價格因素修正擴散模型後，提出一「考慮網路外部性之修正擴散模型」；並利用此修正模型為基礎，針對我國市內電話早期用戶數成長進行此修正模型之驗證動作。依據模型迴歸結果顯示，本研究所提修正擴散模型配適能力均相對較原始模型為佳。據此，顯示本研究所提之修正模型除更切合經濟理論基本架構外，也確實具有較佳的驗證配適能力。
綜言之，本研究所提之考慮網路外部性函數除仍具備一般經濟學需求函數特性外，亦符合消費者對具網路外部性特徵產品之預期行為。此外，與獨佔市場、雙佔市場和擴散模型之結合亦顯示此需求函數之廣泛應用特性；相信可助於其他學者未來在研究具網路外部性特徵相關經濟分析時提供概念之參考。
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