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題名：總體經濟學的兩個議題
作者：吳孟道 引用關係
作者(外文)：Meng-Dao Wu
校院名稱：國立臺北大學
系所名稱：經濟學系
指導教授：方振瑞
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2008
主題關鍵詞：新開放總體經濟模型；比較利益；貨幣政策；總要素生產力；全球化；非加速通貨膨脹失業率；自然失業率；NOEM；comparative advantage；monetary policy；TFP；globalization；NAIRU；natural rate of unemployment
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全球化過程複雜且多面向，Fischer (2003)指出，所謂經濟全球化（economic globalization）係指國與國間日益加深之互動影響過程，主要反映於日益增加之產品與勞務貿易量、國際資金及人員流動。跨國之間，最直接明顯之互動為商品及金融資產之貿易。商品與勞務貿易即為傳統國際貿易理論強調之主要研究範疇，而金融性資產貿易則為國際金融理論之主要研究範疇；然多數國際金融文獻忽略主要國際貿易模型之比較利益機制，基於全球化對各國之影響應同時包括商品貿易及金融性資產貿易（即國際資金流動），忽略商品交易的開放總體經濟模型可能無法反映全球化過程比較利益改變對經濟體系之影響，例如產業結構調整及其對長期失業率影響等，因而可能錯估貨幣及總要素生產力等衝擊之影響效果。
有鑑於全球化過程引起之比較利益改變可能促使一國產業結構改變，從而改變勞動市場之供需結構，使長期失業率隨之變動。因此，在觀察到台灣近期失業率大幅攀升的同時，吾人不禁懷疑此現象是否與全球化過程有著緊密之關聯性，而比較利益在此過程究竟扮演何種角色，皆令吾人感到好奇。上述問題，可透過自然失業率之估計加以探討，且由於探討台灣自然失業率變動之背後原因及其與貨幣政策間關聯性之研究相對付之闕如，值此實際失業率攀升之際，吾人認為對台灣自然失業率之重新估計與深入探討自然失業率變動之影響因素均具價值。
職是，本論文主要包括兩部份，第一部份為新開放總體經濟模型再檢驗—融入比較利益機制，目的在建立一個融入比較利益機制的新開放總體一般均衡模型，探討其對貨幣政策與總要素生產力改變之政策意涵。第二部份為全球化與台灣自然失業率，目的在探討全球化過程與台灣長期失業率之關聯性。
第一部份主要結論如下：比較利益在新開放總體經濟模型內確實扮演一重要角色，當貨幣及TFP變動時，均會透過比較利益影響其他經濟變數。長期均衡下TFP變動對經濟變數影響之結果與Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995)及Fang and Wan (2007)所得之方向大抵相同，影響程度大小則顯有差異。於貨幣政策之影響方面，本章得到貨幣政策對經濟變數影響之短期與長期效果不同，短期貨幣不具中立性而長期貨幣具中立性，此與Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995)短期及長期貨幣皆不具中立性之結論不同。此外，短期下本國貨幣供給增加對本國產出、消費及匯率變動之影響皆為正向，而外國貨幣供給增加對本國產出及匯率變動之影響為負向，對消費變動之影響則為正向，此皆與Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995)之結論一致。然短期下貨幣政策（無論是本國或外國）對產出及匯率的影響程度本文所求得之結果均大於Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995)，表示在融入比較利益機制的新開放總體經濟體系中，貨幣當局在貨幣政策的運用上應更為謹慎，因為較大之波動幅度亦隱含政策實行之風險相對較大。
第二部份結論為隨時間而變之台灣自然失業率於1980年代中期後呈大幅上揚趨勢，而在影響台灣自然失業率變動可能因素中，以金融整合程度指標衡量之全球化程度與近年來台灣自然失業率大幅攀升息息相關；TFP於全球化過程顯然改變方可解釋看似矛盾之外國直接投資與自然失業率正向關係。
The globalization is complex and multifaceted. Fischer (2003) pointed out that “economic globalization” is the ongoing process of greater economic interdependence among countries, which is reflected in the increasing amount of cross-border trade in goods and services, the increasing volume of international financial flows, and the increasing flow of labor. The most obvious interaction among countries is embodied in trade in goods and services and in the transactions of financial assets. Traditional international trade theories emphasize the research on the trade in goods and services, while international finance theories focus on the study of the transactions of financial assets. However, most literature of international finance theories ignores the factor of comparative advantage in the principal international trade model. Since the impact of globalization on every country should also include the trade in goods and services and transactions in financial assets, i.e. international financial flows, the open macroeconomic model which ignores the commodity exchange might not be able to reflect the influence from the change of comparative advantage on economic system. Two instances of such influence are the adjustment of industrial structure and the change of long-term unemployment rate. Thus, the impact of money and total factor productivity (TFP) might be misestimated.
Since the comparative advantage change resulted from the globalization process might cause one country’s industrial structure to change, the supply and demand structure of the labor market might thus be changed and the long-term unemployment rate might also vary accordingly. Therefore, observing Taiwan’s unemployment rate climbs dramatically in recent years, we can’t help wondering if this phenomenon strongly relates to the globalization process. We also wonder what kind of role comparative advantage plays in the process. It is believed that the answer could be found out through estimating the natural rate of unemployment. Seeing that the researches into the reasons of Taiwan’s natural rate of unemployment and into the correlation of this natural rate and monetary policy are extremely rare, at the time when real unemployment rate climbs significantly, it would be valuable to re-estimate Taiwan’s natural rate of unemployment and explore the potential factors.
Therefore, the thesis consists of two parts. The first chapter is “A New Open Economy Macroeconomics Re-examined: Combined with Comparative Advantage.” The purpose of this chapter is to construct a general equilibrium model with comparative advantage in the new open economy macroeconomics, and to explore the policy implications of the change of monetary policy and TFP. The second chapter is “Globalization and Taiwan’s Natural Rate of Unemployment.” The purpose of this chapter is to explore how Taiwan’s natural rate of unemployment relates to globalization.
The first chapter’s main conclusions are as follows: comparative advantage does play a major role in the new open economy macroeconomics. When money or TFP changes, other economic variables could be affected by comparative advantage. In the long-run equilibrium, the impact of the TFP change on economic variables is similar to the study results from Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995) and Fang and Wan (2007); however, there is obvious difference in the degree of influence. Regarding the influence from the monetary policy, the conclusion from this chapter is that the short-term impact from the monetary policy on the economic variables is different from the long-term impact -- the short-term money is not neutral while the long-term money is, which is different from the conclusion of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995), who found that neither the short-term nor the long-term money is neutral. Furthermore, the increase of the home country’s short-term money supply has a positive effect on the product change, the consumption change and the exchange rate change; on the other hand, the foreign short-term money supply increase has a negative effect on home country’s product change and exchange rate change but a positive effect on the consumption change, which is the same as the findings of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). Nevertheless, we found that the degree of the impact of the short-term monetary policy on both product change and exchange rate change is greater than that in Obstfeld and Rogoff’s (1995) study. According to the above results, in the new open economy macroeconomics with comparative advantage, the central bank should be much more careful when implementing the monetary policy, because a greater fluctuation implies greater risk of the implementing the monetary policy.
The conclusions of the second chapter are as follows: Taiwan’s natural rate of unemployment climbs substantially after the mid 1980’s and this phenomenon highly correlates to the degree of globalization measured by the index of financial integration degree. The obvious change of TFP in the globalization process explains the positive correlation, which appears conflicting, between foreign direct investment and the natural rate of unemployment.
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