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題名：新開放總體經濟下的關稅效果與政策協調
作者：賴宗福 引用關係
作者(外文)：Lai Chung Fu
校院名稱：中國文化大學
系所名稱：經濟學研究所
指導教授：胡春田
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2007
主題關鍵詞：新開放總體經濟模型；關稅；匯率動態；福利分析；政策協調；New Open Economy Macroeconomics Model；Tariff；Exchange Rate Dynamics；Welfare Analysis；Policy Coordination
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本論文遵循新開放總體經濟模型(New Open Economy Macroeconomics Model)的架構，建立一個具有個體基礎、價格粘性與不完全競爭的動態模型，探討關稅政策對各總體經濟變數(例如：消費水準、產出水準、匯率、價格、利率、貿易條件及經常帳…等等)的長、短期影響及福利效果，並對關稅政策協調的福利效果進行分析。本文所得到的結論如下：
(1).就長期而言，關稅與本國總消費水準、外國產出水準、貿易條件、外國物價指數及本國商品在國內外價格有正向的關係；與外國總消費水準、本國產出水準、匯率、本國物價指數及外國商品在國內外價格有負向的關係；而與世界總消費水準與世界總產出水準則不具任何正向或負向的關係。
(2).就短期而言，關稅與貿易條件、本國實質利率、本國商品在外國的價格及有外國物價指數正向的關係；與外國總消費水準、匯率水準、外國商品在本國的價格、世界總消費水準及世界總產出水準有負向的關係；而與經常帳則不具任何的關係；關稅與本國物價指數、本國總消費水準及本國產出的關係不確定，關稅與本國總消費水準的關係取決於不同商品間替代彈性、貨幣的邊際效用彈性與債券的實質利率的購買力的大小而定，而關稅與本國產出水準的關係取決於一國規模大小而定。
(3).關稅變動對本國及外國福利的影響是不確定的。其取決於貼現因子、商品間的替代彈性、一國規模大小及貨幣的邊際效用彈性…等結構參數大小而定。
(4).若存在運輸成本時，透過政策協調可使得本國與外國的福利皆上升。
Based on the framework of New Open Economy Macroeconomics Model, we utilize a dynamic general equilibrium model with micro-foundations, price sticky and monopolistic competition to discuss the impacts of changes of tariff on aggregate variables (e.g. consumption, production, terms of trade, current account, real interest rate, the exchange rate and the welfare) of each country in the long-run and short-run, respectively. We also investigate the welfare effect of policy coordination in the second part of this thesis.
The main findings of this thesis are as follow:
(i) If prices are flexible, an increase in tariff rates will have positive effects on domestic consumption, foreign output, terms of trade, and foreign price index, but negative effects on foreign consumption, domestic output, exchange rate, as well as domestic price index. An increase of tariff will have no effect on world consumption and production level.
(ii) On the other hand, if prices are sticky, an increase in tariff rates will have positive effects on the terms of trade and real interest rate, but negative effects on the foreign consumption, exchange rate, the world consumption and world production. However, it will have no effect on current account. The effects on domestic consumption and output are ambiguous.
(iii) The welfare effect of changes of tariff for each country is ambiguous. It depends upon the substitution elasticity between goods, the elasticity of the marginal utility of real money balance, and the size of country.
(iv) If we impose asymmetric assumption in the model, specifically, asymmetric transportation cost, coordination among tariff policies will increase welfare of both countries.
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