:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:臺股指數衍生性商品到期日效應之實證研究
作者:陳佳政
作者(外文):Chia-Cheng Chen
校院名稱:雲林科技大學
系所名稱:管理研究所博士班
指導教授:黃金生
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2008
主題關鍵詞:到期日效應指數套利日內資料市場結構實際波動度Realized VolatilityIndex ArbitrageAn Intraday DataMarket StructureExpiration-Date Effects
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:35
衍生性金融商品是1980年代最成功的金融創新商品,它提供投資人迅速且有效率的金融市場風險移轉。到期日效應是探討衍生市場對現貨市場衝擊的重要課題之一。本研究第一部分從臺灣期貨交易所(TAIFEX)市場制度面探討到期日效應。本研究的實證資料為1998-2006年臺股指數的日內資料,並依據TAIFEX的結算制度變更、市場規模與法人交易結構的變動,分割為三個子樣本期間。本研究的主要結論:(1)在整體樣本期間,臺指衍生契約存在顯著的到期日效應,即在結算期間報酬異常、價格呈現V型反轉、波動量提高、與成交量擴大的現象。(2)TAIFEX結算制度的變更對到期日效應並無顯著影響。(3)TAIFEX到期日效應的主要推動力量,來自整體市場規模擴大與法人結構的提升。本研究發現TAIFEX在近期凸顯的到期日效應,乃是在期貨交易市場既定目標下自然與正常的趨勢。當務之急,就如同當年美國SEC對到期日效應的監控策略,在短短半年內(1985.10-1986.6),由修正期貨結算程序的主軸,轉變為訴求一有效率的現貨市場交易程序,提供足夠的流動性以吸納到期日的市場壅塞。
本研究第二部分探討臺指衍生性金融契約到期日價格反轉效應之形成因素與價格反轉方向之可預測性。本研究之解釋變數包括臺指衍生性金融契約的到期日前之市場交易活動、機構法人交易量與全球股市動態等變數。本研究之實證發現,包括:(1)多元迴歸模型之實證結果顯示價差、趨勢與留倉比率對結算點前後15分鐘與前後30分鐘之價格反轉具有顯著影響力。其中,當期貨領先現貨呈現正價差時,造成結算點前後的價格呈現V型反轉之負報酬。趨勢與留倉比率的提升,助長現貨市場多頭氣勢,使結算點前後呈現倒V型反轉之正報酬。道瓊工業指數則對較長的反轉區間,如結算點前後一交易日具顯著影響。(2)Logit Regression之實證結果顯示,價差、趨勢、與留倉比率對臺指衍生契約結算價格反轉之方向具有預測能力。其中,期貨對現貨之價差將導致結算價格為負向之V型反轉,趨勢與留倉比率之提升則預測結算點之正向倒V型反轉。(3)本實證研究有關價格效應之形成因素與價格反轉方向之預測結果與多數財經媒體預測到期日結算之拉高或壓低相當一致。
本研究第三部分以臺灣加權股價指數日內資料為研究對象,應用Andersen et al.(2001)實際波動度,探討(1)到期日的價格、實際波動度、與成交量的異常現象。(2)臺灣期貨交易所從2001年11月22 日將股票指數衍生契約的結算價從到期日翌日股票市場開盤價,改為開盤後15分鐘加權指數平均價。本研究檢驗結算制度改變對臺灣股票市場到期日效應之影響。實證結果發現(1)臺灣股票市場在樣本的全期間普遍存在指數到期日效應。(2)本研究的實證結果也顯示,2001年11月至2006年12月的第二子期間具有顯著的到期日效應,但1998年9月至2001年10月的第一子期間並不顯著;因此,指數結算方法的改變,並非如預期般的能緩和指數到期日市場壅塞的異常現象。(3)臺灣期貨交易所自1998年開始,整體市場的規模與法人參與的結構都有很大的成長。其中,法人參與比率從1998年5% 增加至2003年的31% 與2006年的61%。本研究測試將第一子期間延長至2002年12月,實證結果與上述近似。因此,本研究推估臺灣股票市場到期日效應主要推進力量來自衍生性金融市場規模與法人結構的激增,而相對的現貨市場並無一配套的交易程序,以吸納到期日因反向結清套利的現貨部位,所造成的交易壅塞現象。
Derivatives are the most successful financial innovation in the 1980s that provide the efficient vehicle of risk transfer for market investors. Expiration-day-effects are an important issue concerning the impacts of derivatives on their underlying markets. The first of this study aims to investigate the market structure of Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX) on the associated expiration-day effects. The empirical data used are the intraday equity index of Taiwan stock exchange in period 1998-2006. In addition, the whole data is divided into three sub-periods according to two main market structure events of TAIFEX: the change of settlement price and the structure change of market scale and participation ratio of institutional traders. The main conclusions of this study are: Ⅰ. TAIFEX exhibits significant expiration-day effects. Specifically, the whole period data show that abnormal mean return, price reversion, high volatility, and heavy trading volume occur near expires of index derivatives. Ⅱ. The change of settlement price of index derivatives has no influence on expiration-day effects. Ⅲ. The root cause of TAIFEX expiration-day effects is the structure change on both market scale and institutional traders’ market participation. This article uncovers the present phenomena of significant expiration-day effects of TAIFEX is the natural and normal market development under the goal of Taiwan futures exchange. The appropriate measures of regulators would be like SEC, switching focus from change of settlement procedure to spot market procedure in 1985.10-1986.6, to provide an effective trading procedure to accommodate the market jam around expiring of index derivatives.
The second part of this study attempts to clarify the main determinants which are on effects for the intensity of expiration-day-effects for Taiwan index drivatives. Moreover, this part of the study also investigates the predictability of the expiration-day-effects upon Taiwan index derivatives. The explainable variables of the models are relavent to market trading activity, institutional investors, and global stock markets dynamics. The empirical results uncover that (1) In the multiple regression analysis, basis, five-day price trend, and the ratio of open interest for delivery possess significant explainatory power for the price-revesal behavior upon fifteen minutes time interval around expiration days. Among them, when the futures price leading spot price with positive basis, the R1-region exhibits V pattern of price reversal with negative reversal returns. Moreover, when five-day price trend and the ratio of opern interest for delivery increase and the market are on optimism, the R1-region tends to an inverted-V pattern with positive returns. The DJIA apperars to affect prive-revesal on longer time interval, for instance, R4-region. (2) Ligit regression analysis shows that basis, five-day price trend, and the ratio of open interest for delivery are capable of partially predicting the reversal direction. Among them, the positive basis of futures prices versus spot prices can forecast the negative V pattern reversal and five-day price trend and the ratio of opern interest for delivery in general lead to positive inverted-V Pattern. (3) The empirical results drawn from this study are rather consistent with the forecastings of financial press reported by financial analysts.
The third part this study employs Andersen et al. (2001) realized volatility in the intraday data of Taiwan stock exchange to investigate (1) the price effect, volatility effect, and trading volume effect on the expiration day; (2) since November 22, 2001 Taiwan Futures Exchange has changed index derivatives settlement price from the opening price of expiration day to the 15 minutes average price after market opening. This study empirically tests the effect of change of settlement method on the index expiration-day effects. The empirical results of this study show that (1) the expiration day effects are significant in the whole sample period in the Taiwan stock exchange; (2) however, the expiration effects are strengthened since the change of settlement method. The empirical evidence indicates the settlement procedure of derivatives contracts has little influence on the expiration day effects; (3) the rationale underlying the strong expiration day effects in the second sample period might relate to the market structure change of Taiwan Futures Exchange. The empirical results indicate the market size and market participant structure Taiwan Futures Exchange explains the expiration day effects of Taiwan stock exchange.
一、中文部分:
1. 蔡垂君,2003,臺灣股價指數期貨與現貨之實證研究,臺北大學企業管理系,博士論文。new window
2. 鍾惠民、吳壽山、周賓凰、范懷文著,2002,財金計量,初版,雙葉書廊有限公司,台北。
3. 楊奕農,2007,時間序列分析--經濟與財務上之應用,初版,雙葉書廊有限公司,台北。

二、英文部分:
1. Admati, A.R., and Pfleiderer, P., 1998, ”A theory of intraday patterns: volume and price variability”, The Review of Financial Studies, vol. 1, pp.3-40.
2. Abhyankar, A. H., 1995, "Return and Volatility Dynamics in The FT-SE 100 Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets", Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 15, pp.457-488.
3. Alkeback, P., and Hagelin, N., 2004, "Expiration Day Effects of Index Futures and Options: Evidence From a Market With a Long Settlement Period", Applied Financial Economics, vol. 14, pp.385-396.
4. Andersen, T. G., 1996, "Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility", Journal of Finance, vol. 51, pp. 169-204.
5. Andersen, T. G., and Bollerslev, T., 1997, “Heterogeous Information Arrivals and Return Volatility Dynamics: Uncovering the Long-run in High Frequency Returns”, Journal of Finance, vol. 52, pp.957-1006.
6. Andersen, T. G., and Bollerslev, T., 1998, ”Deutsche Mark-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Cctivity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies”, Journal of Finance, vol. 53, pp.219-265.
7. Andersen, T. G., Bollerslev, T., Diebold, F. X., and Labys, P., 2001, “The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pp. 42-55.
8. Andersen, T. G., Bollerslev, T., Diebold, F. X., and Labys, P., 2003, "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility", Econometrica vol. 71, pp.579-625.
9. Andersen, T.G., Bollerslev, T., and Meddahi, N., 2005, “Correcting the Errors: Volatility Forecast Evaluation Using High-Frequency Data and Realized Volatilities”, Econometrica, vol. 73, no. 1, pp.279-296.
10. Anderson, R. W., and Danthine J. P., 1983, "The Time Pattern of Hedging and The Volatility of Futures Prices", Review of Economic Studies, vol. 50, pp.249-266.
11. Arago, V., and Fernandez, A., 2002, "Expiration and Maturity Effect: Empirical Evidence From the Spanish Spot and Futures Stock Index", Applied Economics, vol. 34, pp.1617-1626.
12. Bansal, V. K., 2005, "Futures and Options Expiration-Day Effects: The Indian Evidence", The Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 25, no. 11, pp.1045-1065.
13. Barndorff-Nielsen, O. E., and Shephard, N., 2002, “Estimating Quadratic Variation Using Realized Variance”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 17, pp. 457-477.
14. Blair, B. J., Poon, S., and Taylor, S. J., 2001, “Forecasting S&P100 Volatility: TheIncremental Information Content of Implied Volatilities and High-frequency Index Returns”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 105, pp. 5-26.
15. Board, J., and Sutcliffe, C., 1990, "Information, Volatility, Volume, and Maturity: An Investigation of Stock Index Futures", The Review of Futures Markets, vol. 9, no. 3, pp.533-549.
16. Bollen N. P. B., and Whaley R. E., 1999, "Do Expirations of Hang Seng Index Derivatives Affect Stock Market Volatility? ", Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, vol. 7, pp.453-470.
17. Bollen, N. P. B., 1998, "A Note on The Impact of Options on Stock Return Volatility", Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 22, pp.1181-1191.
18. Bollerslev, T., 1986, “Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics”, vol. 31, no. 3, pp.307-327.
19. Chamberlain, T. W., Cheung, C. S., and Kwan, C. C. Y., 1989, "Expiration-Day Effects of Index Futures and Options: Some Canadian Evidence", Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 45, no. 5, pp.67-71.
20. Chatrath, A., Ramchander, S., and Song, F., 1995, "Does Options Trading Lead to Greater Cash Market Volatility? ", Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 15, no. 7, pp.785-803.
21. Chatrath, A., Ramchander, S., and Song, F., 1998, "Speculative Activity and Stock Market Volatility", Journal of Economics and Business, vol. 50, pp.323-337.
22. Chen, C., and Williams, J., 1994, "Triple-Witching Hour, The Change in Expiration Timing, and Stock Market Reaction", The Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 14, no. 3, pp.275-292.
23. Chen, Y. J., Duan, J. C., and Hung, M. W., 1999, "Volatility and Maturity Effects in The Nikkei 225 Index Futures", The Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 19, no. 8, pp.895-909.
24. Cheung, Y. L., Ho, Y. K., Pope, P., and Draper, P., 1994, "Intraday Stock Return Volatility: The Hong Kong Evidence", Pacific Basin Finance Journal, vol. 2, pp.261-276.
25. Chou, H. C., Chen, W. N., and Chen, D. H., 2006, “The Expiration Effects of Stock-Index Derivatives”, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, vol. 42, no. 5, pp.81-102.
26. Chow, Y. F., Yung, H., and Zhang, H., 2003, "Expiration Day Effects: The Case of Hong Kong", Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 23, pp.67-86.
27. Christensen, B., and Prabhala, N., 1998, “The Relation Between Implied and Realized Volatility”, Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 50, pp. 125-150.
28. Clark, P. K., 1973, “A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices”, Econometrica, vol. 41, pp.135-155.
29. Conolly, R. A., 1989, "An Examination of The Robustness of The Weekend Effect", Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 24, pp.133-169.
30. Corredor, P., Lechon, P., and Santamaria, R., 2001, "Option Expiration Effects in Small Markets: The Spanish Stock Exchange", Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 21, pp.905-928.
31. Dacorogna, M. M., Muller, U. A., Nagler, R. J., Olsen, R. B., and Pictet, O. V., 1993, “A Geographical Model for The Daily and Weekly Seasonal Volatility in The Foreign Exchange Market”, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 12, pp. 413-438.
32. Darrat, A., and Rahman, S., 1995, "Has Futures Trading Activity Caused Stock Price Volatility? ", Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 15, no. 5, pp.537-557.
33. Dickey, D. A., and Fuller, W. A., 1979, “Distribution of The Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”, Journal of The American Statistical Association, vol. 74, pp.427-431.
34. Dickey, D. A., and Fuller, W. A., 1981, “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Auto-regressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, vol. 49, pp.1057-1072.
35. Diltz, J. D., and Kim, S., 1996, "The Relationship Between Stock and Option Price Changes", Financial Review, vol. 31, pp.499-519.
36. Edwards, F. R., 1988, "Does Futures Trading Increase Stock Market Volatility? ", Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 44, pp.63-69.
37. Fama, E. F., 1965, "The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices," Journal of Business, vol. 38, pp.34-105.
38. Fama, E. F., 1987, Black Monday and The Future of Financial Markets, Edited by Barro, R. J., Fama, E. F., Fischel, D. R., Meltzer, A. H., Roll, R. W., and Telser, I. G., Homewood, IL., Irwin.
39. Fleming, J., Kirby, C., and Ostdiek, B., 2003, “The Economic Value of Volatility Timing Using “Realized” Volatility”, Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 67, pp. 473-509.
40. French, K. R., Schwert, G. W., and Stambaugh, R. F., 1987, “Expected Stock Returns and Volatility”, Journal of Finance Economics, vol. 19, pp.3-29.
41. Fung, H. G., ans Patterson, G. A., 1999, "The Dynamic Relationship of Volatility, Volume, and Market Depth in Currency Futures Markets", Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions and Money, vol. 9, pp.33-59.
42. Galloway, T. M., and Miller, J. M., 1997, "Index Futures Trading and Stock Return Volatility: Evidence from The Introduction of MidCap 400 Index Futures", Financial Review, vol. 32, no. 4, pp.845-865.
43. Gannon, G. L., 1994, "Simultaneous Volatility Effects in Index Futures", Review of Futures Markets, vol. 13, pp.1027-1065.
44. Giot, P., and Laurent, S., 2004, “Modelling Daily Value-at-Risk Using Realized Volatility and ARCH Type Models”, Journal of Empirical Finance, vol. 11, pp. 379-398.
45. Giot, P., and Laurent, S., 2007, “The Information Content of Implied Volatility in Light of The Jump/Continuous Decomposition of Realized Volatility”, The Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 27, pp. 337-359.
46. Glosten, L. R., Jaganathan, R., and Runkle, D., 1993, “On The Relation Between The Expected Value and The Volatility of The Normal Excess Return on Stocks”, Journal of Finance, vol. 48, pp.1779-1801.
47. Granger, C. W. J., 1999, "Overview of Nonlinear Time Series Specifications in Economics", Academia Economic Papers, vol. 27, pp.433-457.
48. Greene, W. H., 1997, Econometric Analysis, 3nd edition, Prentice Hall.
49. Hancock, G. D., 1993, "Whatever Happened to the Triple Witching Hour? ", Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 49, pp.66-72.
50. Hansen, P. R., and Lunde, A., 2006, “Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 24, pp. 127-218.
51. Harris, L., 1986, "A Transaction Data Study of Weekly and Intra-daily Patterns in Stock Returns", Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 16, pp.99-117.
52. Herbst, A. F., and Maberly, E. D., 1990, "Stock Index Futures, Expiration Day Volatility, and The "Special" Friday Opening: A Note", The Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 10, no. 3, pp.323-325.
53. Herbst, A. F., and Maberly, E. D., 1991, "An Alternative Methodology for Measuring Expiration Day Price Effects at Friday''s Close: The Expected Price Reversal--A Note", The Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 11, no. 6, pp.751-754.
54. Hillion, P., and Suominen, M., 2004, “The Manipulation of Closing Prices”, Journal of Financial Markets, vol. 7, pp.351-375.
55. Hollander, M., and Wolfe, D. A., 1999, Nonparametric statistical methods, 2nd edition , John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
56. Hsieh, S. F., and Ma, T., 2008, “Expiration-Day Effects: Does Settlement Price Matter? ”, International Review of Economics & Finance, (Forthcoming).
57. Iihara, Y., Kato, K., and Tokunaga, T., 1996, "Intraday Return Dynamics Between The Cash and The Futures Markets in Japan", Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 16, pp.147-162.
58. Illueca, M., and Lafuente, J. A., 2003, "The Effect of Spot and Futures Trading on Stock Index Volatility: A Non-parametric Approach", Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 23, pp.841-858.
59. Illueca, M., and Lafuente, J. A., 2006,” New Evidence on Expiration-Day Effects Using Realized Volatility: An Intraday Analysis For The Spanish Stock Exchange”, The Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 26, no. 9, pp.923-938.
60. Jarrow, R. A., 1994, "Derivative Security Markets, Market Manipulation, and Option Pricing Theory", Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 29, no. 2, pp.241-261.
61. Judge, G. G., Griffiths, W. E., Hill, R. C., Lutkepohl, H., and Lee, T. C., 1988, Introduction to The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, 2nd edition, New York, John Wiley and Sons.
62. Kan, A. C. N., 2001, "Expiration-Day Effect: Evidence From High-Frequency Data in The Hong Kong Stock Market", Applied Financial Economics, vol. 11, pp.107-118.
63. Karolyi, G. A., 1996, "Stock Market Volatility Around Expiration Days in Japan", The Journal of Derivatives, vol. 4, pp.23-43.
64. Kayahan, B., Stengos, T., and Saltoglu, B., 2002, “Intra-Day Features of Realized Volatility: Evidence from An Emerging Market”, International Journal of Business and Economics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp.17-24.
65. Khwaja, A. I., and Mian, A., 2005, "Unchecked Intermediaries: Price Manipulation in An Emerging Stock Market", Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 78, pp.203-241.
66. Klemkosky, R. C., 1978, "The Impact of Option Expirations on Stock Prices", Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 13, pp.507-518.
67. Kling, A., 1987, ”How The Stock Market Can Learn to Live with Index Futures and Options”, Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 43, pp.33-39.
68. Lien, D., and Yang, L., 2005, "Availability and Settlement of Individual Stock Futures and Options Expiration-Day Effects: Evidence From High-Frequency Data", The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, vol. 45, pp.730-747.
69. Lindley, D. V., 1957, "A Statictical Paradox", Biometrika, vol. 44, pp.187-192.
70. Lockwood, L. J., and Linn, S. C., 1990, "An Examination of Stock Market Return Volatility During Overnight and Intraday Periods", The Journal of Finance, vol. 45, no. 2, pp.591-601.
71. Lu, J.C., and Martens, M., 2003, “Testing The Mixture-of-Distributions Hypothesis Using Realized Volatility”, Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 23, pp. 661-679.
72. Mandelbrot, B., 1963, "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices”, Journalof Business, vol. 36, pp.394-419.
73. Martens, M., Chang, Y. C., and Taylor, S. J., 2002, “A Comparison of Seasonal Adjustment Methods When Forecasting Intraday Volatility”, Journal of Forecasting Research, vol. 25, pp.283-299.
74. Martens, S. L., 2001, “Operationally Deploying Six Sigma”, ASQ''s 55th Annual Quality Congress Proceedings, pp.751-755.
75. Martikainen, T., Perttunen, J., and Puttonen, V., 1995, "On The Dynamics of Stock Index Futures and Individual Stock Returns", Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, vol. 22, pp.87-100.
76. Masulis, R.W., 1980, “Stock Repurchase by Tender Offer: An Analysis of The Causes of Common Stock Price Changes”, Journal of Finance, vol. 35, pp.305-321.
77. Mayhew, S., 2000, ”The Impact of Derivative on Cash Markets: What Have We Learned? ”, Working Paper, University of Georgia.
78. Merrick, J. J., 1989, "Early Unwindings and Rollovers of Stock Index Futures Arbitrage Programs: Analysis and Implication for Predicting Expiration Day Effects", The Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 9, pp.101-111.
79. Merton, R. C., 1980, “On Estimating The Expected Return on The Market”, Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 8, pp.323-361.
80. Min, J.H. and Najand, M., 1999, "A Further Investigation of The Lead-Lag Relationship Between The Spot Market and Stock Index Futures: Early Evidence From Korea", Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 19, pp.217-232.
81. Nelson, D. B., 1991, “Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach”, Econometrica, vol. 59, pp.347-370.
82. Newey, W., and West, K., 1987, “A Simple Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix”, Econometrica, vol. 55, pp.703-708.
83. Pericli, A., and Koutmos, G., 1997, "Index Futures and Options and Stock Market Volatility", Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 17, no. 8, pp.957-974.
84. Phillips, P., and Perron, P., 1988, “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrica, vol. 75, pp.335-346.
85. Pindyck R. S., and Rubinfeld D. L., 1998, Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, 4nd edition, New York, Mc Graw-Hill.
86. Pirrong, C., 2001, "Manipulation of Cash-Settled Futures Contracts", Journal of Business, vol. 74, no. 2, pp.221-244.
87. Pope, P. F., and Yadav, P. K., 1992, "The Impact of Option Expiration on Underlying Stocks: The UK Evidence", Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, vol. 19, no. 3, pp.329-344.
88. Poteshman, A. M., 2000, “Forecasting Future Volatility from Option Prices”, Working paper, FEN.
89. Ragunathan, V., and Peker, A., 1997, "Price Variability, Trading Volume and Market Depth: Evidence From the Australian Futures Market", Applied Financial Economics, vol. 7, pp.447-454.
90. Reyes, M. G., 1996, "Index Futures Trading and Stock Price Volatility: Evidence from Denmark and France", Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 20, no. 3, pp.81-88.
91. Rutledge, D. J. S., 1976, "A Note on The Variability of Futures Prices", Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 58, pp.118-120.
92. Samuelson, P. A., 1965, "Proof That Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly", Industrial Management Review, vol. 6, pp.41-49.
93. Samuelson, P. A., 1976, "Is Real-World Price a Tale Told by The Idiot of Chance? ", The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 58, pp.120-123.
94. Schlag, C., 1996, "Expiration Day Effects of Stock Index Derivatives in Germany", European Financial Management, vol. 1, pp.69-95.
95. Schwert, G. W., and Seguin, P.J., 1990, ” Heteroscedasticity In Stock Returns”, Journal of Finance, vol. 45, pp.1129-1155.
96. Segall, J., 1956, "The Effect of Maturity on Price Fluctuations", The Journal of Business, vol. 29, no. 3, pp.202-206.
97. Shleifer, A., 1986, “Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down”, Journal of Finance, vol. 7, pp.579-590.
98. Stoll, H. R., 1988, "Index Futures, Program Trading, and Stock Market Procedures", The Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 8, no. 4, pp.391-412.
99. Stoll, H. R., and Whaley, R. E., 1986, "Expiration Day Effects of Index Options and Futures", Monograph Series in Finance and Economics, Monograph 1986-3.
100. Stoll, H. R., and Whaley, R. E., 1987, "Program Trading and Expiration-Day Effects", Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 43, pp.16-28.
101. Stoll, H. R., and Whaley, R. E., 1990, "Program Trading and Individual Stock Returns: Ingredients of the Triple-Witching Brew", Journal of Business, vol. 63, no.1, pp.165-192.
102. Stoll, H. R., and Whaley, R. E., 1991, "Expiration-Day Effects: What Has Changed? ", Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 47, pp.58-72.
103. Stoll, H. R., and Whaley, R. E., 1997, "Expiration-Day Effects of The All Ordinaries Share Price Index Futures: Empirical Evidence and Alternative Settlement Procedures", Australian Journal of Management, vol. 22, pp.139-174.
104. Swidler, S., Schwartz, L., and Kristiansen, R., 1994,“Option Expiration Day Effects in Small Mark:Evidence from The Oslo Stock Exchange”, Jounal of Fiancial Engineering, vol. 3, pp.177-195.
105. Tauchen, G. E., and Pitts, M., 1983, "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets", Econometrica, vol. 51, pp.485-505.
106. Taylor, S.J., and Xu, X., 1997, “The Incremental Volatility Information in One Million Foreign Exchange Quotations”, Journal of Empirical Finance, vol. 4, pp. 317-340.
107. White, H., 1980, “A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity”, Econometrica, vol. 48, pp.817-838.
108. Wooldridge, J, M., 2003, Introductory econometrics, 2nd edition, USA.
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top