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題名：企業盈餘持續性與分析師報導
作者：林美鳳
作者(外文)：Mei-Feng Lin
校院名稱：臺灣大學
系所名稱：會計學研究所
指導教授：林修葳
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2008
主題關鍵詞：盈餘持續性；分析師行為；樂觀預測；群聚現象；領先型分析師；earnings persistence；analyst behavior；optimism forecasts；herding；lead analyst
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本研究目的旨在探討企業盈餘持續性對於分析師報導行為之影響。盈餘持續性與資訊價值及私有蒐集資訊成本有關，因此應該是分析師注意的焦點。研究結果顯示盈餘持續性與分析師報導人數呈顯著正相關，但與長期預測和股票推薦相對報導人數及頻率呈顯著負相關。另外我們假定盈餘持續性較低的公司，分析師盈餘預測時較需要非公開資訊，因此分析師預測相對較樂觀，認為分析師相信發佈樂觀預測，他們可以從管理者獲得較多的資訊，我們的結果支持此一假設。我們也檢測盈餘持續性是否影響分析師群聚行為，結果指出盈餘持續性與分析師群聚行為呈顯著負相關。另外，我們依照分析師的盈餘預測(推薦)相對時點將分析師分類為預測(推薦)領先型與追隨型分析師，發現領先預測具有持續性，尤其在高持續性公司。領先推薦雖具有持續性，但企業盈餘持續性對此並不具有加乘效果。過去領先預測或過去預測相對較準確的分析師較可有意願藉由先預測以區別出其能力，特別是盈餘持續高的企業。盈餘持續性低的公司，預測較樂觀的分析師較可能成為領先型分析師。
The purpose of this paper is to examine whether analysts’ coverage decisions would be affected by corporate earnings persistence. The persistence of the earnings series provides information concerning the value of private search activity and thus, should be a focus of analyst attention. Our results show that earnings persistence is significantly positively associated with the level of security analyst coverage while the number of analysts following long-term forecasts and the frequency of long-term forecasts are found to be negatively associated with earnings persistence. We posit that there is higher demand for non-public information for firms which have low earnings persistence than for firms which have high earnings persistence. Analysts make relatively optimistic forecasts when earnings are less persistence, suggesting that analysts believe that by issuing optimistic forecasts, they obtain better information from managers. Our results support this hypothesis. We also find that earnings persistence is significantly negatively associated with analysts herding index.
In addition, we classify analysts as forecast (recommendation) leaders and followers based on the relative timeliness of their earnings forecasts (recommendation). We investigate whether security analysts exhibit persistence in their timely forecast or timely recommendation. We find that the analysts who have led peers in the past are more likely to lead again. Leading likelihood increases with the analyst’s prior accuracy and leader in the previous period, this relationship is more pronounced for firms with high earnings persistence.
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