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題名:建構亞洲壽險產業發展與壽險公司經營績效之模型
作者:李宏安
作者(外文):Hung-An Li
校院名稱:國立中興大學
系所名稱:應用經濟學系所
指導教授:黃琮琪 教授
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2010
主題關鍵詞:門檻階層線性模式壽險績效thresholdHLMlife insuranceperformance
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這是兩篇有關亞洲壽險產業發展與壽險公司經營績效的實證文章,第一篇利用追蹤門檻模型(Panel Threshold Model)研究經濟發展、金融發展對於10個亞洲壽險市場發展在1979-2008的影響。本文結果顯示存在單一門檻值使得不同的GDP變動會導致不同的壽險發展。GDP的變動對於壽險市場發展有正向且顯著的影響;然而,本文顯示較大的GDP變動對於壽險市場發展的影響效果比較小GDP變動時來的大。另外,本文也發現金融市場發展、實質利率與儲蓄率對於壽險市場發展有正向顯著影響。
第二篇利用階層線性成長模型(Hierarchical Linear Growth Model)估計7個亞洲國家中的壽險產業下存在異質性的壽險公司經營績效與成長在1997-2006。HLM能同時處理總體階層與個體階層變數具有跨階層的效果。本文實證顯示以ROA為結果變數時,ROA的成長為正斜率,但是加速度為負,代表ROA的成長為非線性成長。D/A對於平均ROA有正向顯著影響,但是對於ROA的成長存在負向顯著影響,代表負債愈大會減弱ROA的成長。實質資產變動百分比對於平均ROA有負向顯著效果。在總體解釋變數上,扶養比與壽險密度對於平均ROA有顯著負向影響,此外扶養比會增強D/A與平均ROA的正向關係,但金融發展會減低此一關係。金融發展與壽險密度會增強市場佔有率與平均ROA的負向關係。另外,以ROE為結果變數實證顯示,D/A與平均ROE有正向顯著關係,實質資產變動百分比與均ROE有顯著負向關係。在總體變數上,經濟成長與壽險密度對於平均ROE有正向顯著關係,但是扶養比確有負向關係。D/A與平均ROE的正向關係會因為扶養比增強此一關係,但是經濟成長卻會削弱此一關係。此外實質保費成長與平均ROE的正向關係會因為扶養比增強,但是壽險密度會減弱此一關係。
This dissertation comprises two empirical essays on the development of life insurance industry and the performance of life insurance firm in Asia. The first essay utilizes a panel threshold model to investigate the relationship between economic development and life insurance market development in 10 Asian countries from 1979 to 2008. The empirical evidence shows there is a single optimal threshold level exists, and that indicates two regimes where the change of GDP effects on the development of life insurance market differ. The change of GDP does have a significant and positive impact on the development of life insurance market. However, when the change of GDP is higher than the threshold value, the impact of GDP increasing on life insurance development is clearly substantial than the change of GDP lower than the threshold value. Overall, the empirical evidences show that indicator of financial development, real interest rate and savings all have positive impacts on the development of life insurance market in this study.
The second essay adopts a hierarchical linear growth model to estimate the sources of heterogeneity in firm-level performance and growth between life insurance industries located in 7 Asia countries from 1997 to 2006. Using HLM methodology allows this study to simultaneously investigate the impacts of variables at macro-level and micro-level and also potential correlations cross levels on performance of life insurance firms. The empirical evidences of this study show that when ROA is the indicator of performance, the growth of performance of life insurance industry in Asian courtiers is quadratic equation. That means the performance of life insurance firm is non-linear growth. This study found that as time goes on, ROA growth rate grows but accelerated rate of ROA growth decreases. In addition, D/A has a significant and positive impact and the change of asset has a negative impact on average ROA. Moreover, D/A has a significant and negative influence on ROA growth rate. This study found that the age dependency ratio and life insurance density significantly and negatively affect average ROA. As regards the analysis of interactions, the positive relationship between D/A and average ROA will be advance by the age dependency ratio; however it will be diminished by financial development. Moreover, the negative relationship of market share and average ROA will be intensified by financial development and life insurance density. Besides, the age dependency ratio may attenuate the negative effect of D/A on ROA growth rate.
When the ROE is the indicator of performance, this study found that D/A is positively related to average ROE. However, the change of assets of life insurance firms is negatively related to average ROE. Also, market share has a significant and positive impact on ROE growth rate and the change of assets of firms has a significant and negative impact on ROE growth rate. Both the economic growth and life insurance density are positively associated with average ROE. However, the age dependency ratio related negatively to average ROE. The positive relationship between D/A and average ROE will be strengthened by the age dependency ratio, but will be attenuated by economic growth. Moreover, financial development may lessen the positive effect of growth of assets on performance. Also, the positive relationship between growth of life insurance premium and ROE will be advanced by larger the age dependency ratio and smaller life insurance density.
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