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題名：中國區域經濟研究之三篇論文集
作者：李家銘
作者(外文)：Chia-ming Lee
校院名稱：國立中央大學
系所名稱：產業經濟研究所
指導教授：楊志海
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2010
主題關鍵詞：創新能力；區域創新系統；外人直接投資；總要素生產力；外溢效果；專利；研究與發展；追蹤資料共整合；橫斷面相依性；空間計量模型；區域所得不均；patent；Regional innovation system；innovative capability；Spillover effect；Total factor productivity；Panel Cointegration；Cross-sectional dependence；Spatial econometric model；Regional income inequality；R&D；Foreign direct investment
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自從1979年中國實施改革開放起，中國經濟日益蓬勃發展，且近十年來中國的經濟成長始終維持在年平均9%之上，此經濟體快速成長的過程也備受學者們所關注。依過去開發中國家的發展歷史中，我們可知道強的經濟發展過程，常伴隨著區域所得不均的現象，當然中國也不例外。我們也試圖去解釋中國區域發展不均的現況究竟是何種因素所造成？因此，本文以中國區域資料研究三篇相關的中國區域經濟議題，首先說明為何中國外人直接投資(inward foreign indirect investment, FDI)對於區域總要素生產力(total factor productivity, TFP)的影響，且討論沿海地區與內陸地區之FDI對於TFP的影響差異。再者，我們討論為何中國區域創新能力發展在各省分有顯著的差異存在？著重於區域創新系統(regional innovation systems, RISs)角色的說明。最後，我們試圖去解釋各省份的區域生產函數是否存在長期共整合關係，且同時考量長期追蹤資料(panel data)存在有橫斷面相依性問題(cross-sectional dependence)。
在第二章，我們探討中國FDI對於區域生產力的影響效果為何？特別是，我們採用新的總要素生產力的衡量方法用以處理生產要素中具有內生性的問題，且同時衡量多個FDI的替代變數，期望能獲得較為穩健(robust)的廻歸估計結果。再者，我們解釋技術吸收能力(absorptive ability)在FDI與TFP的關係中所扮演的角色為何，且探討區域間FDI外溢效果(spillover effect)的影響。同時也解釋沿海省分與內陸省分FDI對於生產力的潛在差異效果。本章節採用中國31省的長期追蹤資料，期間橫跨1997-2006。透過不同的估計結果顯示FDI 對於整體的TFP有正向顯著提升的效果存在，而此效果也同時高度依循地區的技術吸收能力。各地區的技術差距(technology gap)被證實為負向顯著影響地區生產力；此外，相對於內陸省分地區有較高的生產力提升效果。
在第三章，我們以實證模型估計地區創新能力(regional innovation capability)表現的決定因素為何。不同時先前的研究，我們採用兩階段的估計架構，用以分析地區創新能力表現的決定因素。首先，我們嘗試著先去捕捉地區特性與創新環境在不同地區中對於區域研究與發展強度(R&D intensity)的影響。再者，我們透過對於區域創新系統架構的模擬，建構區域創新能力表現的決定因素的實證模型，其中我們著重於區域創新系統角色的說明。於實證結果顯示教育資本與基礎建設為影響地區研發活動的重要因素，而外來的技術來源變數，技術引進對於地區的研發活動存在著替代關係。最要的是在第二階段中，我們著重於驗證四個假設在區域區新系統架構下是否被支持。
第四章中，我們討論區域生產函數是否存在長期的共整合關係，且衡量長期追蹤資料是否具有橫斷面相系性的問題存在。資料上，我們使用30個省分之長期追蹤資料，期間橫跨1990-2007，建構一個Cobb-Douglas生產函數模型來解釋變數間是否存在長期關係。估計方法上，我們採用Beemstock and Felsenstein (2010)所提出的空間向量誤差修正模型(spatial vector error correction model, SpVECM)，同時依循單跟檢定(panel unit root test)與共整合檢定(panel cointegration test)等步驟，在存在共整合關係下，我們衡量變數間的長期收斂關係為何？實證結果證實中國各省分區域資料存在高度的空間相關性(spatial correlation)。包含於區域生產函數中的變數存在有長期的共整合關係。
In the development histories of developing countries, strong economic development usually accompanies the widening regional income disparity. China is not an exception; we shall look more carefully into what happened in this black box. Thus, the dissertation attempts to study three related issues about the Chinese regional economics and to examine some questions as follow. How to examine the effect of FDI on regional productivity in China? Why does innovative capability vary so substantially across regions in China? Whether the provincial production function is cointegrated in the long run?
The chapter 2 investigates the effect of FDI on regional productivity in China. Specifically, we adopt a newly developed measure of total factor productivity (TFP) to deal with the endogenous inputs choice accompanied with various measures of FDI, enabling to provide robust estimates on the TFP effect of FDI. Moreover, we examine the role of absorptive ability on the FDI-TFP nexus and explore the existence of FDI spillover effect on productivity across regions. The potential difference in productivity effect of FDI between coastal and non-coastal regions is also examined. Based on the province-level panel dataset over the period 1997-2006, the various estimates show that the overall productivity effect of FDI is significantly positive, while this effect depends heavily on the host region’s absorptive ability. Technological gap is found to associate with a significantly negative coefficient along with the finding that FDI tends to exhibit a higher impact on productivity in coastal regions than their non-coastal counterparts, highlighting a widening income inequality between coastal and non-coastal regions in China.
The chapter 3 empirically investigates the determinants of regional innovative capability in China. Differing from previous studies, we propose a two-step framework to analyze the determinants of regional innovative capability. We first identify the regional characteristics and innovative environments that differentiate regional R&D intensity. In the second step, the determinants of regional innovative capability are examined, especially in terms of the role of the regional innovation system (RIS) in the regional R&D-patent nexus. The empirical results show that human capital and the technological infrastructure serve as core influences of regional R&D intensity, while technology imports appear to significantly substitute for domestic R&D. More importantly, the four hypotheses regarding the role of RIS in promoting regional innovative capability are supported.
In chapter 4, we apply the panel data with the characteristic of cross-sectional dependence and examine the long-run relationship of provincial economic performance in China. By using an annual panel data for 30 provinces in china over the period 1990-2007, we estimate a long-run relationship of Cobb-Douglas production function. We adopt the spatial vector error correction model provided by Beenstock and Felsenstein (2010) to measure the long-run effect and to provide the procedure of statistical and systematical tests for panel data with cross-sectional dependence. The main empirical findings are as follows. First, the estimated results clearly indicate tat the strong dependence in China’s regional production function data. Second, base on the presence of cross-sectional dependence in our data, the panel unit root tests of Pesaran (2007) indicate that all variables among the regional production function are non-stationary. Third, given the variables among the regional production function have the same order of integrated, we evidence that the variables among the regional production function are cointegrated in the long run.
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