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題名:整合生態系統與行為者基礎模型之都市周邊土地利用變遷模擬
作者:王思樺
作者(外文):Szu-Hua Wang
校院名稱:國立臺北大學
系所名稱:都市計劃研究所
指導教授:黃書禮
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2010
主題關鍵詞:都市周邊土地利用變遷生態系統模型行為者基礎模型生態系統回復力Peri-urbanLand use changeEcosystem modelAgent-based modelEcosystem resilience
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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全球環境受到人類活動急速擴張的影響,持續地改變,而最明顯的證據即是土地利用與地表覆蓋變遷。因此,許多國際重要研究機構紛紛提出大型研究計畫,例如國際全球環境變遷人文面向研究(International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change; IHDP)於2005年發起「都市化與全球環境變遷(Urbanization and Global Environmental Chang; UGEC)」核心計畫,以及其與國際地圈生物圈計畫(International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme; IGBP)聯袂提出的「全球土地計畫(Global Land Project; GLP)」,皆是以土地系統觀點研究人類、自然資源與土地在人與環境複合系統中的互動關係,並釐清社會系統與生態系統如何透過土地系統而彼此影響與回饋,進而建構土地永續發展的整合模擬與分析。此外,環境問題科學委員會(Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment; SCOPE)意識到人類活動與都市擴張對自然環境所造成到的問題與影響,尤其是介於都市與鄉村之間、擁有豐富自然資源的過度地帶。於是,SCOPE開始著手進行都市周邊環境改變(Peri-Urban Environmental Change; PU-ECH)研究計畫,企圖透過土地利用變遷之研究與分析,探究其與生態系統以及人為活動之互動與影響,以及都市周邊地區生態系統回復力(resilience)的改變情形。
有鑑於此,本研究透過生物物理觀點以及物質與能量流動的串連,描繪都市周邊地區生態系統互動網絡,同時納入行為者基礎模型之概念,建構人類決策、自然環境與土地利用的互動關係,同時利用IDRISI Taiga建置整合生態系統與行為者基礎模型之土地利用變遷模擬平台,以模擬台北-桃園地區都市周邊土地利用變遷情形。本研究亦根據生態系統回復力的定義與內涵,以台灣重大天然災害–颱風為對象,提出生態系統回復力分析方法,以分析台北-桃園都市周邊地區土地利用變遷所造成的生態系統衝擊。本研究之模擬結果,呈現台北-桃園都市周邊地區35年來(1971–2006)生態系統與土地利用變遷趨勢:自然地區次系統受到政府保護政策的影響,各存量僅略微減少;農業地區次系統在農業式微與都市發展的壓力下,系統內部之存量顯著減少;而都市地區次系統隨著其他次系統存量轉換與投入,逐漸累積並向周邊地區擴散;整體而言,都市土地大量增加是土地利用變遷的主因,其變遷趨勢由台北盆地沿基隆河谷蔓延至基隆市,並隨著主要交通路網擴張至桃園台地。本研究進一步探討土地利用變遷與回復力改變的關係,則可得到以下結論:土地利用改變時,生態系統回復力明顯降低;一旦干擾強度增加時,生態系統回復力亦會隨之降低,尤其以鄰近河川地區最為明顯。
本研究所建構的整合生態系統與行為者基礎之土地利用變遷模型,改善過去土地利用變遷模型僅考量生態系統或行為者基礎,而造成的模擬結果限制與缺失,而回復力分析方法的提出亦克服目前缺乏明確的回復力分析方法之困境。本研究的土地利用變遷模型與回復力分析方法,可作為後續相關研究之重要參考。
The impacts of human activities on the natural environment are getting more and more significant. The most obvious evidence is land use and land cover change. Therefore, many researches such as “Urbanization and Global Environmental Change (UGEC)” launched by International Human Dimension Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) and “Global Land Project (GLP)” jointly proposed by IHDP and IGBP were emerged to study human activities, land system, natural environmental change and their interactions. Besides, peri-urban areas lie at the interface between urban and rural areas and have abundant natural resource bases to provide urban life support. Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) initiated a project of “Peri-Urban Environmental Change (PU-ECH)” in 1998 in order to investigate land use change under the interactions between ecosystem and human activities and their impacts on ecosystem resilience in peri-urban areas.
Based on the concept of biophysical approach and urban energy theory, this research develops an integrated ecosystem and agent-based model in order to enhance understandings of the interactions among land use, human decision-making, and environmental change. IDRISI Taiga is adopted in this research to illustrate a joint application of ecosystem and agent-based modelling to simulate stocks and flows of energy and materials and land use change. A case study is used to demonstrate the patterns of peri-urban spatial change. This research also designs a resilience analysis method to evaluate impacts of spatial simulation results on the environment. The results illustrate that the stocks of the natural area, one of the three main subsystems in Taipei-Taoyuan peri-urban area, decreased slightly due to the government’s protection policies during 1971 to 2006. However, the stocks of the agricultural area decreased obviously under the pressures of urban development and agricultural declines, especially in Taoyuan area. These stocks transferred and flowed into the urban area and meanwhile resulted in increases of the stocks in the urban area and sprawling to surrounding areas. During 1971 to 2006, built-up lands increased from Taipei basin to Keelung City along the Keelung River and then sprawled to Taoyuan area along the roads and the main transportation corridors. Furthermore, the results of resilience analysis indicated that ecosystem resilience decreased due to land use changes and more intensive disturbances, especially the areas near rivers.
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