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題名：影響中國廠商內銷比例與新產品比例之決定因素：學習效果、外溢效果與研發
作者：康廷嶽
作者(外文)：Ting-Yueh Kang
校院名稱：國立臺灣大學
系所名稱：經濟學研究所
指導教授：劉碧珍
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2011
主題關鍵詞：中國廠商；內銷比例；新產品比例；學習效果；外溢效果；研發；Chinese firms；domestic sales ratios；new product ratios；learning effects；spillover effects；R&；D
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中國在90年代後經濟快速成長，其13億人口的龐大內需市場之發展備受關注，顯示中國已由過去的世界工廠轉變為跨國企業積極開發的新興銷售戰場，因而探討影響廠商內銷行為之因素更顯重要。此外，廠商生產新產品是衡量研發產出或績效的重要指標，且在中國積極鼓勵研發創新活動政策導向下，廠商的研發產出變化為何？值得深入探討。依此，本論文分2個層面進行探討。
在第二章，探討影響外資企業內銷比例之決定因素，使用1999年至2006年間投資中國製造業的外資企業之追蹤資料進行分析。考慮外資企業受中國廣大潛在內需市場吸引欲積極開拓內銷，但中國卻對外資企業內銷設有諸多內銷限制與障礙的特殊情況，例如在2000年前嚴格限制外資企業的內銷比例。因而在動態追蹤資料模型架構下，使用系統性一般動差法 (System GMM) 進行分析。由實證結果可知，外資企業的自身學習效果與內銷外溢效果是重要影響因素，且具有邊際效果遞減的特性。此兩效果對不同所有權之影響亦具有差異，純外資企業的影響效果較強，而中外合資則較弱。此外，本章亦發現越早進入中國的外資企業，因具有先進者優勢而有較高的內銷比例。
第三章則擴大分析在前一章之觀察廠商，並針對傳統文獻認為「研發創新活動有助於廠商出口 (Posner, 1961; Vernon, 1966; Barrios et al., 2003)」之論點進行探討，本文發現此一說法並不適用於在中國投資生產的多數製造商。本章使用2001至2006年間中國整體製造業廠商資料，並採取分量迴歸 (Quantile Regression) 探究研發活動與其外溢效果對內銷比例之影響。實證結果顯示，傳統之認為廠商的研發投入具有提高外銷比例、但降低內銷比例的結論未必成立，而會隨著廠商所有權、規模與內銷傾向而有所差異。此外，本章亦發現中資與外資企業各具優勢，因而來自於中資的內銷外溢效果較外資大，來自於外資的研發外溢效果較中資大。再者，因同類廠商特性相近而較易相互學習，使得同類所有權廠商的外溢效果較大。
China has achieved rapid economic growth since the 1990s, and the development of its domestic market of 1.3 billion people has attracted great attention worldwide. This growth also signifies that China has transformed from “the world’s factory” to an emerging market for multinational enterprises. Hence, investigation of the determinants of domestic sales has gained importance. In addition, new products from firms are important indicators of Research and Development (R&D) output or performance. Therefore, we want to explore how R&D output in Chinese firms has changed with the support of China’s government for R&D activities. The following three essays are presented to examine the determinants of firms’ domestic sales ratios (the proportion of goods sold domestically) and new product ratios in China.
In the first essay, we consider that China has attracted a large amount of foreign investment over the past two decades. Many foreign investment enterprises (FIEs) in China hope to increase domestic sales because of the vast potential domestic market. Before 2000, China had strict limits on the domestic sales ratio for FIEs, and today, some barriers still exist, even though the restrictions have been officially lifted. Using a panel data of manufacturing FIEs from 1999 to 2006, this essay investigates the determinants of domestic sales ratios in China. This study considers the dynamic panel data model of domestic sales decisions by applying the System Generalized Method of Moment (System GMM) approach. We find the own learning effects and the spillover effects are both important determinants of domestic sales intensity, and vary across different ownership forms. These two effects are more significant for wholly foreign-owned ventures than for Chinese-foreign joint ventures. In addition, we also find evidence of a first-mover advantage in the Chinese domestic market.
In the second essay, we study how firms’ R&D intensity and two types of spillovers, i.e., R&D spillovers and domestic sales spillovers, affect their domestic sales ratios. Since firms operating in China display a U-shaped, rather than normal, distribution in their domestic sales ratios, we use quantile regression (QR) to perform the analysis. By using panel data of manufacturing firms in China for 2001-2006, we show that R&D intensity has a positive effect on the domestic sales ratio. This is counter to the traditional wisdom, in which R&D efforts tend to increase export intensity (e.g. Posner, 1961; Vernon, 1966; Barrios et al., 2003). In addition, we show that R&D spillovers from foreign-invested firms on the domestic sales ratio are greater than those stemming from domestic firms, while the opposite is true for domestic sales spillovers. Also, the spillover effects of both types are greater within the same ownership type than across different ownership types.
In the third essay, we investigate the determinants of decisions by firms in China to produce new products and of decisions of new product ratios (the proportion of total output) for 2001-2006. This essay demonstrates the phenomenon of “firms’ R&D investment with diminishing marginal effects” that was difficult for previous studies to support. We also estimate that the average R&D elasticity of manufacturing firms in China is about 13%, while the R&D elasticity of Chinese-foreign equity joint ventures is the highest (19%) and that of Taiwan-Hong Kong-Macau owned enterprises is the lowest (10%). In addition, we find that the spillover effects of R&D from domestic firms and foreign firms are not the same; R&D spillover effects from foreign firms can promote firms to produce new products or have higher new product ratios. In addition, we find that foreign-Chinese equity joint ventures and state-owned enterprises have higher proportions of firms showing a negative R&D elasticity phenomenon, while Taiwan-Hong Kong-Macau owned and foreign-owned enterprises show lower proportions of firms.
中文部分：
中華經濟研究院 (2009)，《2009年對海外投資事業營運狀況調查分析報告》，經濟部投資審查委員會委託出版，台北：經濟部。
香港貿易發展局 (2009)，《中國內銷指南》，香港：香港貿易發展局。
劉碧珍、許智誠與康廷嶽 (2010)，「廠商規模與出口比例關係之再探討-以分量迴歸分析在中國之不同所有權企業」，發表於2010年10月21-22日舉行的「中國經濟發展模式IV」學術研討會，中央研究院。
劉碧珍與康廷嶽 (2010)，「影響外資企業在中國市場內銷比例之決定因素：自身學習效果與外溢效果」，《東吳經濟商學學報》，第71期，頁27-62。
劉碧珍與康廷嶽 (2011)，「以分量迴歸探討中國廠商研發與外溢效果對內銷比例之影響」，發表於5月28日舉行的「2011年產業、貿易與區域經濟學術研討會」，淡江大學主辦；6月5日舉行的「第12屆全國實證研討會」，清華大學主辦。

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