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題名：西北太平洋地區颱風活動研究：與氣候變遷之關係
作者：邱品竣
作者(外文)：Chiu, Ping-Gin
校院名稱：中國文化大學
系所名稱：地學研究所博士班
指導教授：余嘉裕
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2012
主題關鍵詞：颱風；颱風活躍度；氣候變遷；typhoon activity；genesis potential
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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研究颱風活動和背景大氣海洋環境間之關係是近來氣候研究熱門課題之一,其成果對於改善颱風活動季節預報有顯著助益。在颱風活動的量度上,常以生成數或累計氣旋動能指數(Accumulated Cyclone Energy,ACE)作為量度熱帶氣旋活動的標準。本研究以較精確的熱帶氣旋動能指數(Revised Accumulated Cyclone Energy,RACE)分析西北太平洋颱風活動及其影響因素,並計畫改良GPI(Genesis Potential Index)分析模式資料,以解析颱風活動與氣候變遷的關連性。
在颱風氣候特徵上,西北太平洋的颱風活動主要在6到11月,可以粗分為夏季(6到8月)及秋季(9到11月)兩期,夏季由於東亞季風槽東延,與熱帶東風在菲律賓東方海域輻合北轉,不僅颱風生成較秋季多,駛流場也適合颱風北轉。秋季在副熱帶高壓減弱及季風停止下,熱帶東風可以一路吹送到南中國海,使得颱風路徑偏向西行,在活動量上秋季也有較強表現。年際變化上,颱風主要受ENSO事件的影響,但季風槽及副高仍扮演重要角色。El Nĩno年時中太平洋較高的海溫n比正常年適合生成颱風,且其對颱風盛行路徑而言有較多發展空間,而秋季又較夏季明顯;La Nĩna年則恰好相反。副高除了影響中太平洋的颱風生成,與季風在夏季的輻合位置也會影響颱風生成位置與路徑。
氣候上GPI常用在診斷模式中熱帶氣旋的生成量,其空間分布主要是以低層絕對渦度和
垂直風切畫定熱帶氣旋生成區域,時間上的變化則以中對流層相對濕度及熱帶氣旋潛在強度(Potentialintensity,PI)提供。GPI有著明顯的年代際變化,1972年之前的低值主要是相對濕度項的影響,2000年後的高值則是加上PI的效果所致。我們研究也發現以ERA-40及ERA-interim資料分析之GPI和實際觀測颱風活動仍有顯著差異,主要誤差來源為PI項,代表PI在物理上仍有改善之空間。
本研究用大氣穩定度參數Mq取代PI以改善GPI在時間變化上的表現,並以所得結果(MqGPI)檢視IPCC AR4所用的11個模式中,未來颱風生成的變化。結果顯示雖然模式間差異甚大,但在A2情境下西北太平洋所有模式的颱風生成都有所增加,平均每年約增加0.1個颱風,且增加最多的位置比氣候上生成最多的位置偏東。增加的主因為大氣中可降水量(Mq)增加,使可轉為颱風動能的潛熱增加;另外中對流層相對濕度亦有貢獻,程度約為Mq的一半。動力上垂直風切在中太平洋減弱,與相對濕度的變化區域接近,可能與模式中綜觀系統的變化相關,值得進一步檢視。
The present and future typhoon activity of western North Pacific is investigated in this thesis. It is found that the difference of typhoon activity between summer (June to August) and autumn (September to November) is due to east Asia monsoon change. Subtropical Pacific high and tropical easterly are also important synoptic system for typhoon activity. ENSO event is play an important role in annual variability.
Genesis potential(GPI) is convenience index for tropical activity diagnoses, but some improvements are needed. In this study, Mq which is use as a thermal parameter to improve the GPI performance. So called MqGPI. Eleven model data from IPCC AR4 has been analyzed via MqGPI. It's shows the typhoon genesis in western North Pacific will increases 0.1 per year in future climate. Most of the increase is due to the total precipitable moist in atmosphere.
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