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題名:運用區間值模糊數發展風險分析之決策支援方法
作者:賴虹霖 引用關係
作者(外文):Hung Lin Lai
校院名稱:長庚大學
系所名稱:企業管理研究所博士班
指導教授:陳亭羽
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2013
主題關鍵詞:決策制定風險分析決策支援系統區間值模糊數TOPSIS相似度decision makingrisk analysisdecision support systeminterval-valued fuzzy numbersTOPSISsimilarity measure
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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風險分析對一個組織而言是一個非常重要的議題,尤其是在決策制定的過程當中,更是重要。然而,風險管理的問題總是充滿了不確定性。尤其是決策過程往往處在不確定性很高,而且又高度複雜的情況中,決策者要從中做出選擇就更困難了。基於這些原因,同時考量區間值模糊數在複雜的情境中,更能掌握語意上的不確定性,因此在本論文中,研究者係以運用區間值模糊數作為語意尺度的風險分析工具。研究者發展出在模糊環境中解決決策問題的方法。為了能在組織中協助處理多準則決策問題,研究者透過TOPSIS之架構,發展出一個運用衡量方案與正負理想點之相似度的方法來解決此類問題。大部分運用模糊理論於TOPSIS方法之研究,係考量方案與正負理想點之距離。不同於這些研究,在本研究中,我們以衡量方案與正負理想點之區間值模糊數的相似度來解決決策問題,這樣的結果將更趨近於人性的直覺。將本方法透過不同組織類型的應用,我們相信決策過程將會更簡單,且使不同的決策者於決策時之品質符合一致性。同時,本方法之所有計算過程將可以寫入決策支援系統,使決策過程更加簡化。決策者惟一須要做的事,就是將語意的意見輸入決策支援系統即可。
Risk analysis is a very important issue for an organization, especially in the decision-making process. However, there are many uncertainties in risk management. In uncertain and complex situations, making choices may be difficult for decision makers. For these reasons, in this dissertation, I analyze risks in linguistic terms and based on interval-valued fuzzy numbers (IVFNs), which may better address linguistic uncertainties in complex situations. I develop methods for solving decision-making problems in a fuzzy environment. To make organizational decisions based on multiple criteria, I develop a method that extends the TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) approach by calculating degrees of similarity between the ideal and the negative ideal solutions simultaneously. Most studies related to TOPSIS based on fuzzy theory measure the distance between the alternatives and the positive/negative ideal solution. Rather than adopting this approach, in this dissertation, I develop a method to measure the similarity between the IVFNs of the alternatives and the positive ideal solution/negative ideal solution, which may lead to more intuitive results than measuring the distance. Based on applications in different types of organizations, I find that using the proposed method can make the decision-making process easier and more consistent for decision makers. Moreover, all of the calculations in the proposed method can be written into a decision support system that would simplify the decision-making process. The decision maker only has to input opinions in linguistic terms into the decision support system.
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