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題名：併購非上市公司、分析師預測與併購公司績效
作者：蔡明澤
作者(外文)：Ming-TseTsai
校院名稱：國立成功大學
系所名稱：企業管理學系碩博士班
指導教授：張紹基
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2013
主題關鍵詞：併購；非上市公司；分析師預測；長期績效；Acquisition；Unlisted target；Analyst forecast；Post-acquisition performance
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併購非上市公司的宣告的市場反應在過去的研究中為正向，與併購上公司的實證研究有相反的結果。在短期，資訊可能無法完全反映在公開價格，因此本研究延伸過去的研究，測試併購非上市公司在長期股價表現，了解併購非上公司的決策是否在長期也能夠創造價值。我們的研究結果發現，在併購非上市公司的事件中，主併購公司的長期表現並不理想。本研究嘗試引入分析師預測來解釋併購非上市公司之後的長期股價表現。我們發現分析師在樣本中對於主併購公司的盈餘與長期成長的預期都呈現相對樂觀。聯結分析師預測與主併購公司的長期表現，結果顯示當分析師對於主併購公司的長期成長預期越樂觀的時候，長期的股價表現越差，此結果支持分析師在併購非上市公司的事件中的過度樂觀是影響長期股價表現不佳的重要因素。在過去研究併購非上市公司相關的研究之中，學者針對了短期的正面市場反應提出現一些解釋包括價格折扣、股票支付的訊號傳遞效果與大股東的監督效果，本研究中我們試著驗證這些因素對於長期股價表現的影響，但沒有發現顯著的效果。
The announcement abnormal returns of unlisted target acquisitions are positive, which is in contrast to the well documented negative market reaction to the acquisition announcements of public targets. In the short run, the market price may not completely reflect the information. We extend extant research by investigating whether the positive announcement abnormal returns are also mirrored in the long run performance. We find this not to be the case. We introduce analyst forecasts as a new factor to help us see how they relate to the post-acquisition performance of unlisted target acquisitions. We find that analysts are optimistic about the potential earnings and the long run growth of acquiring firms. In the long run, the stocks of acquiring firms perform worse when analysts presume the firms to have higher growth potential. These results suggest that the anomalies in the long run may be partially driven by analysts’ overoptimism. We also test the proposed benefits of acquiring an unlisted target in previous studies, including value discounts, signaling effect of stock payment, and efficient monitoring from blockholder creation. We do not find significant effect of these explanations on long run performance.
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