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題名:台灣地區海運承攬運送業複合運送合作夥伴風險評估之研究
作者:周貞慧
作者(外文):Chen-Hui Chou
校院名稱:國立臺灣海洋大學
系所名稱:航運管理學系
指導教授:梁金樹
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2013
主題關鍵詞:海運承攬運送業合作風險複合運送模糊多準則決策分析層級程序法模糊集合理論Ocean freight forwarderCooperation riskMulti-modal transportFuzzy multi-criteria decision makingAnalytic hierarchy processFuzzy set theory
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依據交通部全球資訊網之統計資料顯示,我國外貿約有99.69% 是以海洋運輸之方式來運送,足見在活絡我國的經濟發展上,海運承攬運輸業扮演著舉足輕重的角色,而提供有效和快速的物流服務是海運承攬運輸業的責任之一,據此亦得以提高整體性績效並予以留住客戶。然面對競爭日益激烈且經營環境變化日趨詭譎的航運市場,為了要滿足託運人無縫隙運輸需求和提高競爭優勢,合作聯盟儼然是一種有效的策略。然與他人合作總有許多無可掌握的潛在風險,耑此,期確保合作聯盟的成功和規避合作夥伴的風險,為海運承攬運輸業者尋求一個評估其複合運輸合作夥伴之合作風險的演算法,即成為一個重要的課題。
本研究以台灣地區之海運承攬運送業者為研究對象,探討海運承攬運送業者經營複合運送時所可能面臨之合作風險,以可能性程度的概念為基礎,發展一個模糊多準則決策的演算法,再對海運承攬業的複合運送夥伴進行合作風險評估的實證研究。首先,介紹一些被應用到發展本研究所提出的模糊多準則決策演算法之模糊集合理論的概念與方法,為配合進行複合運送合作夥伴風險之評估的研究問題,建構出一個包含準則與評選方案的層級架構,然後,利用本研究所提出的演算法,篩選出合作夥伴風險評估準則、計算所有評選方案之整合模糊的適當指標,和建立複合運送合作夥伴的風險評估模式,進而選擇風險最低的複合運送合作夥伴;最後以評估實例來說明本研究所提風險評估模式的操作過程。此外,本研究的主要貢獻是發展一個適合評估複合運送合作夥伴風險之實用模型。
According to the study reports published by the Ministry of Transportation and Communications, on average, 99.69% of annual foreign trade is dependent on sea carriage in Taiwan. The ocean freight forwarders play an important role in the developmental vigor of Taiwan’s economic. One of the responsibilities of ocean freighter forwarder is to offer effective and fast total logistics service in order to increase overall performance and retain the customers. Especially in the situation of rising competition, rising complexity and radically challenging environment occurring in the ocean freighter forwarder industry are constantly changing. To satisfy shippers’ seamless transportation demand and enhance the competitive advantage, cooperation alliance is an effective strategy. However, in any cooperation partner, there are always inherent risks and potential structural and cultural incompatibilities. To ensure cooperation alliance success and circumvent the risk from cooperation alliance partner, finding an algorithm for the cooperation risk evaluation of multi-modal transport partner of ocean freight forwarders is an important issue.
The main purpose of this research is to develop a fuzzy multi-criteria decision making (FMCDM) algorithm based on the concept of possibility extent and to survey an empirical study of evaluating cooperation risk of multi-modal transport partner for ocean freight forwarders in Taiwan. At first, some concepts and methods of the fuzzy set theory are applied to develop the proposed FMCDM algorithm. For matching this evaluation problem, a hierarchical structure with criteria and alternatives for evaluating cooperation risk of multi-modal transport partner is constructed. Then, the aggregating fuzzy appropriateness indices of all alternatives can be obtained by the proposed algorithm. Furthermore, by using the final raking values of all alternatives the least risk partner will be eventually determined. Finally, a numerical example of cooperation partner risk evaluation of multi-modal transport for an ocean freight forwarder is used to illustrate our evaluative process. In addition, the main contribution of this research is to develop a practical model for evaluating cooperation risk of multi-modal transport partner.
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