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題名:基於交易資訊及市場訊息的全面性特徵於智慧型股市交易模型之研究
作者:吳政隆 引用關係
作者(外文):Jheng-Long Wu
校院名稱:元智大學
系所名稱:資訊管理學系
指導教授:張百棧
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2013
主題關鍵詞:智慧型股票交易模型全面性特徵情感分析技術分析機器學習Intelligent Stock Trading ModelComprehensive FeaturesSentiment AnalysisTechnical AnalysisMachine Learning
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本論文主要目的是預測股票市場的自動化交易決策。股票市場是一種相當複雜的交易環境,對於全面性特徵的產生是非常困難。根據許多研究結果指出,投資者掌握相關股市資訊可對投資標的物獲取更多利潤。本研究嘗試發展一套基於全面性特徵的智慧型股市交易模型(Intelligent Stock Trading Model Based on Comprehensive features, ISTMCF)來預測未來的股票趨勢,特徵包括情感指標(Sentiment indices, SI)、技術指標(Technical indices, TI)、交易訊號(Trading signals, TS)。此ISTMCF模式的組成包含以股市資訊萃取、預測模式學習及股市交易決策。全面性特徵的萃取方法包含,情感分析(Sentiment analysis, SA)可即時分析較為敏感的事件訊息有助於推估未來趨勢形成情感指標(Sentiment indices, SI),而技術分析(Technical analysis, TA)可以從歷史交易資訊中計算有效的交易規則形成技術指標(Technical indices, TI),然而趨勢切割法(Trend-based segmentation method, TBSM)可從歷史股價中計算出更為貼切現實的交易決策形成交易訊號(Trading signals, TS)。相較於其他未產用情感指標為基礎的交易模型,本研究所提出的全面性特徵可大幅提升股市預測的精準度及獲利率。
The aim of this study is to predict automatic trading decisions in the stock market. Comprehensive feature for predicting future trend is very difficult to generate in a complex environment. According to related works, the most relevant stock information can help investors formulate objects that will result in better profit. With this in mind, we present a model of intelligent stock trading model from comprehensive features (ISTMCF) to predict future stock market trend. The ISTMCF consists of stock information extraction, prediction model learning and stock trading decision. We apply three approaches to generate comprehensive features, including sentiment analysis (SA) that provides sensitive market events from news on stock for sentiment indices (SI), technical analysis (TA) that yields effective trading rules based on trading information on the stock exchange for technical indices (TI), as well as trend-based segmentation method (TBSM) that raises trading decisions from stock price for trading signals TS). Through experiment, we demonstrate that for all stocks, the results of employing the comprehensive features are significantly better than that without using the sentiment analysis features.
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