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題名:城市永續效率分析的三個議題: 中國的經濟、環境與社會發展
作者:魯亮君
作者(外文):LU, LIANG-CHUN
校院名稱:東吳大學
系所名稱:經濟學系
指導教授:邱永和
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2020
主題關鍵詞:非意欲動態差額資料包絡分析法共同邊界非射線方向距離函數模型城市效率AQI空氣品質指標能源效率森林碳匯碳排放效率Modified Undesirable Dynamic SBM DEA ModelMeta-Frontier Non-Radial Directional Distance Function ModelUrban efficiencyAQIEnergy EfficiencyForest Carbon SinkCO2 Efficiency
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中國過去三十年快速的經濟成長, 導致強烈的能源消耗需求和嚴重的空氣污染排放,都會化導致居民的生活環境持續惡化,長期危害居民的健康。為了更準確地評估城市治理效率,透過三篇文章來評估中國2013年至2016年的城市效率。在本研究第2章的文章中,應用修正後非意欲動態差額資料包絡分析法模型來評估城市的經濟成長和環境效率, 並考慮員工人數、能源消耗、政府支出作為投入項,而GDP(意欲產出)和空氣品質指數(非意欲產出)作為產出項,並將固定資產作為跨期影響因子評估動態的影響。研究結果發現, 需要進一步改善22個城市的治理效率。 對於空氣品質的汙染治理問題上, 發現政策具有落後遞延且空氣汙染具有持續擴散的特性, 交互影響了城市發展的效率。 而空氣汙染的高流動特性影響區域範圍較廣,地方政府需要建立快速的監控機制來控管環境的空氣污染源。
因此,基於AQI的高流動性,從區域的角度來看,促進城市經濟成長和減少空氣污染的可持續發展便至關重要,第三章分析城市效率評估中納入了區域性的概念。使用共同邊界非射線的方向距離函數模型,以能源消耗,勞動力和固定資產為投入項,GDP為意欲產出,CO2和AQI為非意欲產出,評估能源消耗和空氣污染效率,以區域的群組邊界找出與共同邊界的技術差距。 結果發現,中國西部和東部城市之間存在很大的技術差距。 透過比較中國31個城市的CO2和AQI排放中發現二氧化碳排放量和AQI效率得分截然不同,得分較低的城市集中在中國西部地區。分析結論是,中國需要多加注意城市間不同經濟水平和社會發展階段的差異,特別是西部城市,需制定適當的重點長期治理計劃。
2015年, 中國已成為世界上造林面積最大的國家。聯合國氣候變遷綱要公約(UNFCCC)召開第21屆巴黎會議上達成了主要共識 - 巴黎協議。
巴黎協議中重新定義了森林的功能,從被動的減少森林砍伐到積極的森林永續管理,森林不但可以緩解氣候變遷,還可以調適氣候變遷。因此,為了評估考慮森林概念後的城市生產力和環境效率,第四章的文章採用修正後非意欲動態差額資料包絡分析法模型,將森林做為影響下一期的跨期影響因子,並以固定資產、員工人數、政府支出和能源消耗作為投入項,將GDP(意欲產出)、CO2和AQI(非意欲產出)作為產出項。
研究發現,相較於其他治理指標,中國城市的空氣污染AQI已成為最嚴重的治理問題。 森林有助於CO2排放效率的提升,但對於AQI排放的治理效率沒有明顯改善。 研究並發現,大多數城市的森林效率表現都不理想,存在著很大的改善空間,表示森林資源的投入並非是最佳化的配置, 顯著地影響了城市治理績效表現。 城市治理表現最佳的城市大多位於沿海地區, 表示森林位置與空氣汙染是城市治理面臨的最大考驗。眾所皆知, 空氣汙染物質具有高度流動特性,空氣污染物質惡化長期將影響著西部內陸城市的可持續發展和居民的健康。在城市效率的研究中將森林資源視為必要的環境評估指標,將有助於地方政府在城市治理和城市可持續發展中進行資源最佳化的分配。
The economic growth of China is rapidly in past three decades, cause the strong energy consumption demand and serious air pollution emission, the urbanization resulting residents encountering a deterioration living environment and endanger people’s health. In order to assess the urban efficiency more accuracy, we adopt three essays to evaluate the Urban efficiency of Chinese Cities from 2013 to 2016. In first essays as in chapter 2, we applied Modified Undesirable Dynamic Slacks-Based Measure (SBM) DEA Model to evaluate Cities’ economics growth and environment efficiency. It takes account employees, energy consumption, government expenditure as input variables, the GDP (desirable) and Air Quality Index (AQI, undesirable) as output variables, considering fixed assets as an intertemporal carry-over factor to assess efficiency from one period to the next period. The results found the urban performance of 22 cities are require furthermore improvement. Besides, AQI bring the lagging and expending to affect urban development efficiency. The high mobility of AQI affects regional, local governments need to setup a prompt monitoring mechanism for control the environmental air pollution source.
Hence, based on the high floating mobility of AQI, by the regional viewpoints, enhance economic growth and reducing environmental air pollution are essential for a sustainability development, the second essay in chapter 3 conducts the regional concept for the urban performance. Using a Meta-Frontier Non-Radial Directional Distance Function Model, this chapter adopted energy consumption, labor force, and fixed assets investment as input, GDP as the desirable output, and CO2 and AQI as the undesirable outputs to assess the energy consumption and the air pollutant efficiency to identify the technology gap by regional group. It was found that there was a large technology gap between western and eastern cities in China. By comparing the CO2 and AQI in 31 Chinese cities, very different CO2 emissions and AQI efficiency scores were found, with lower scoring cities concentrated in China’s western region. it was concluded that China needs to pay greater attention to the different economic levels and stages of social development, especially in the western cities with the appropriate focused long-term improvement plans.
In 2015, China has been becoming the biggest afforestation country in the world, Coincidently, a major consensus was established by Paris agreement for the 21st conference of Paris holding by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It redefined the function of forest from passive reduction of deforestation to active forest sustainability management which is not just only mitigating but also adapted the climate change. Therefore, in order to assess the urban’s economic and environmental efficiency considering forest concept, the third essay in chapter 4 adopted the Modified Undesirable Dynamic DEA Model which is considered forest as an intertemporal impact factor affects to next period, and applied the labor force, fixed asset, government expenditure and energy consumption as the input variables, and takes into account GDP (desirable) and CO2 and AQI (undesirable) as the output variables. We found the urban’s air pollution in China become the most severe governance problem that compares to the other indicators. The forest helped for reducing CO2¬ emission, but not for reducing the AQI emission. Forest efficiency is not performing well in most of the cities, and the forest significantly affects the cities’ performance in large difference of room for improvement. The cities with the best urban performance are located along the coast. As people well-known the air pollutants with the high floating mobility, the air pollutants affect the western inland cities’ sustainable development and residents’ health in long-term period. Considering the forest as an important indicator to access in the urban efficiency research will help local governments to allocate the optimal resource in the cities’ governance and sustainable development.
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