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題名：	中華職棒大聯盟打者薪資預測模型之建構
作者：	朱柏璁
作者(外文)：	CHU, BO-TSUNG
校院名稱：	國立體育大學
系所名稱：	體育研究所
指導教授：	葉公鼎
學位類別：	博士
出版日期：	2020
主題關鍵詞：	薪資協商；年齡；整體攻擊指數；勝利貢獻指數；salary negotiation；age；OPS；win shares
原始連結：	連回原系統網址
相關次數：	被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0) 排除自我引用:0 共同引用:0 點閱:2

球員是職業棒球運動的核心，也是球隊的資產，球員的表現好壞影響到球賽的結果，而以球賽輸贏作為收受電視轉播權利金、販賣球票、促銷商品、招攬贊助、創造營收和品牌延伸主要訴求的球隊來說，球員便是他們的生財工具。台灣職棒(中華職棒大聯盟)過去二十多年來勞資雙方因薪資爭議尋求仲裁的案件約有20件，不僅破壞雙方的形象，更會造成負面結果影響球員場上的表現。因此本研究的目的希望尋求一個客觀且科學的工具和模型，球員得以藉由表現估算合理價值，並藉以作為薪資協商的依據，使其得以專心於可以創造價值的球賽上。球隊也可以減少談薪的心力，而能在其預算範圍內，對球員依照建議模型進行論功行賞的標準。
本研究為了使大眾容易使用，先參考過去文獻，並進行前測篩選出影響中華職棒大聯盟2008至2016年打者薪資的重要參數，並以最容易被解讀且接受的迴歸分析計算出各個薪資影響參數的權重，建立薪資預測模型。再以模型預測之薪水與實際薪水比較去檢測模型準確性，而後將2017及2018年的資料帶入以檢驗模型之預估能力，最後再以前人研究中所提及的相關因子進行三因子的模式建立，並比較與其模型間的準確性。
扣除出賽次數過少的球員後，總計納入303名球員之資料進行模型建立，初步模型中分析出有9個因子與薪資有相關性，再依前人研究中與前測結果挑選出年紀、整體攻擊指數及勝利貢獻指數所建構的薪資預測模型，以平均絕對百分比誤差 (MAPE)驗證發現這個模型具有高度的準確性，且薪資被高估及被低估的人數相仿；不同年間的誤差也都落於高準確度及良好準確度之間，而在所有薪資區間中，模型預測的能力也接近相同。且在預測能力方面，2017及2018兩年的資料都將接近高準確度，且所有的球員的預估薪資都落在合理的預估範圍內，且約半數的球員都落在高準度範圍內。而預估薪資稍微高於實際薪資，表示依據球員的表現，球團應給予球員更高的薪資，這也反映了和往年相比，2017和2018年野手薪資成長率的下降。而為了進一步比較三因子是否足以預估薪資，由相同取樣年間的前人研究中所挑選的十個因子進行120組的模型比較，本研究所挑選的三個因子預估能力準確度仍較高。
本研究所得之薪資預測模型雖並不複雜，但仍保有高準確度，方便使用，此外隨著時間推移準確度改變的幅度很小，因此可供未來參考。由於本研究所得之薪資預測模型，主要考量打者的表現參數，惟諸如明星魅力、球團戰績以及球團預算等變數，建議後續研究仍可加以探討。此外，本研究結果適用對象並不包括投手薪資，故針對投手的薪資預測模型亦仍待後續研究者探討。建議球隊可以建立公平公正與公開的核薪機制，球員也應積極建立自我形象，政府也可以促使專業的運動經紀人發展，以利職業棒球市場蓬勃興旺。

以文找文

Players are the core of professional baseball games and assets to their clubs. The performance of players influences the results of games. Game results affect a baseball club’s television broadcasting rights fees, tickets sales, goods promotion, sponsor attraction, revenue creation, and brand extension. Thus, players are financial tools to baseball clubs. In Taiwan, approximately 20 cases of salary arbitration disputes have occurred between baseball players and their clubs. Such disputes not only undermine the images of the club and players but also negatively influence players’ performance on the field. Therefore, this study developed an objective and scientific model for baseball players to estimate their reasonable value according to their performance. Players can use the results of this study as a reference for salary negotiation and focus on their game scores to create higher values. Moreover, clubs can reduce their efforts in negotiating salaries and reward players according to the standard indicated by the proposed model within their budget range.
This study referred to past research and conducted a pretest to select important parameters that affected the salaries of Chinese Professional Baseball League batters from 2008 to 2016. Regression analysis, a widely used and easily interpreted method, was adopted to identify the weight of each salary influencing parameter and establish the salary model for 2008–2016. The salary predicted by the model and the actual salary were compared to test the accuracy of the model. The data of 2017 and 2018 were also substituted into the model to examine its predictive ability. Finally, the relevant factors mentioned in previous studies are used to establish a three-factor model and compare the accuracy among these models.
After deducting the batters who played limited games, a total of 303 batters were included for model building. The preliminary model indicated there are 9 factors correlated with salary. Then, based on previous research and preliminary results, the salary estimation model constructed by age, OPS, and Win Shares are highly accurate and verified by Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), this model is highly accurate. And the number of batters whose salary is overestimated or underestimated is similar. The MAPE in different years also falls between high accuracy and good accuracy. In all salary ranges, the estimation ability of the model is also similar. In terms of predictive ability, the data for 2017 and 2018 are near high accuracy. The estimated salary of all batters falls within reasonable accuracy, and about half of the estimated salary of batter fall within the high accuracy range. The estimated salary is slightly higher than the actual salary, indicating that based on the performance of the players, the team should give the players a higher salary. This phenomenon also reflects the decline in the salary growth rate of the batters in 2017 and 2018 compared with previous years. In order to further compare whether the three-factor model is sufficient to predict the salary, 120 sets of models, constructed by ten factors selected in previous studies in the same sampling year, were compared. The three factors selected in this study remain high accuracy.
Although the salary estimation model developed in this study is not complex, it still provides high accuracy and is convenient to refer. In addition, the model exhibited only a small decrease in accuracy with the data for 2017 and 2018; therefore, it can be used in the future to determine appropriate salaries.
Besides, since the salary estimation model developed in this study does not take all factors into account for the decision of the salary, such as the player’s charisma, the performance of the club and the budget of the club. We suggest researchers in the future shall cover the above factors in this regard. In addition, the salary estimation model does not apply to the salary of pitchers, we suggest the relevant estimation model shall be developed as well.
Finally, the researcher of this study suggests that clubs must establish a fair, open, and transparent salary system to facilitate the development of a professional baseball market, clubs must establish a fair, open, and transparent salary system. Moreover, players should actively establish their self-image; the government can also promote the development of professional sports agents to benefit the development of professional baseball market.

以文找文

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