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題名：將經濟增長與能源資源利用和環境壓力脫鉤： 以G20國家、核能依賴國、臺灣進行驗證
作者：陳俊智
作者(外文)：Chen, Chun-Chih
校院名稱：國立交通大學
系所名稱：管理科學系所
指導教授：包曉天
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2020
主題關鍵詞：脫鉤策略；庫茲涅茲曲線；核能；洛特卡－沃爾泰拉方程式；臺灣；Decoupling；EKC/CKC；Nuclear；Emissions-Energy-Economy(3-E)；Lotka–Volterra ECOsystem Model (LV–ECOM)；Taiwan
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永續為各國發展的重要議題，為減緩極端氣候、升溫低於2oC，消彌經濟發展造成環境破壞之壓力，研究透過三個子研究探討環境、經濟、能源的互動，提出三者脫鉤之策略，採用G20(1991-2016)、高收入核能依賴國(1987-2016)以及臺灣(1980-2016)作為研究樣本，使用面板供整合、誤差向量模式、洛特卡－沃爾泰拉方程(Lotka-Volterra equation)模型進行分析。
研究(一)由G20作為樣本代表世界進行分析，研究發現：核能與再生能源間的互補可有效抑制碳排放，且核能為持續穩定發電、可增強能源安全的清潔能源(World Nuclear Association, 2020)，有利永續成長發展。承襲研究(一)之發現，研究(二)採用高收入核能依賴國進行分析，研究發現：高收入核能依賴國-法國、比利時、瑞典、瑞士，都具有環境、經濟、能源脫鉤之特性，此結果驗證研究(一)之發現-核能為脫鉤策略不可或缺一環。透過上述兩研究，研究(三)針對臺灣能源轉型議題進行分析，研究發現：若臺灣在再生能源具有規模前，貿然廢核，又期達成減碳之目標，可能危及能源安全、能源自主，導致能源短缺、碳排放增加的問題。故研究建議，在再生能源具有規模前，應先建置智慧電網，強化其能源效率，同時進行碳捕捉、封存技術之研發，抑或是重新規劃能源矩陣，納入核能作為脫鉤能源轉型策略。
此三研究驗證，透過核能低成本、大量穩定發電、零碳排之特性，可達永續-脫鉤-成長之目標。故研究建議，脫鉤策略中，應持續核能安全、核廢料再利用研發，以達成永續成長之目標。
Sustainability is the task of the top priority of the world, in order to ease the extreme climate, hold the global average temperature increase to “well below 2°C above preindustrial levels”, and eliminate the environmental pressure from economic growth. The study constructs three studies, by analyzing the interaction between environment, economy, and energy (3-E) offer the decoupling strategies. The selected samples are: G20 (1991-2016), High-income and nuclear dependent countries (1987-2016), and Taiwan (1980-2016). We use the panel-cointergation, panel vector error correction model, and Lotka-Volterra equation to analyze the data.
The first study uses G20 as the global sample to analyze the 3-E’s interaction, the results show: the complementary effect between nuclear and renewable energy can suppress the emissions effectively. And the characteristics of nuclear energy (stable, zero emission, and low cost) (World Nuclear Association, 2020) benefit to the sustainable development. The second study extends the results from the first one, by using the high-income and nuclear energy dependent countries to dig deeper, the results show: the sample countries- France, Belgium, Sweden and Switzerland are with the 3-E decoupling situation. The second study confirms the results from the first study. Nuclear energy indeed is an indispensable part of decoupling strategies. The last study, we focus on the energy transition issue in Taiwan, by the 3-E analyzing results to offer the policy suggestions. The results show drastically cuts nuclear energy without considering energy diversity due to which troubles might ensue. The study suggests that the energy transition strategy should be to improve energy efficiency, build smart grids, develop carbon capture and storage, and reconsider putting nuclear energy back into the energy matrix before expanding the scale of renewable energy.
The three studies confirm that the characteristics-stable, clean, and low cost of nuclear energy can help to achieve sustainability-decoupling-development. So the study suggests: we should keep investing in the R&D of nuclear safety and nuclear waste reuse technologies to achieve the sustainable development goals.
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