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題名：東協貿易與外人直接投資之研究分析
作者：梁梅苑
作者(外文)：LUONG THI MAI UYEN
校院名稱：國立中正大學
系所名稱：經濟系國際經濟學研究所
指導教授：劉文獻
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2022
主題關鍵詞：東協；貿易；外人直接投資；ASEAN；Trade；Foreign Direct Investment；Export concentration；Theil Index；Spatial econometrics；Difference-in-differences；COVID-19
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東南亞國家聯盟（ASEAN）的成立旨在加強東盟成員國與其他國家在經濟、政治、安全、軍事、教育和社會文化一體化方面的合作。它由位於東南亞的十個成員組成，如文萊達魯薩蘭國、柬埔寨、老撾人民民主共和國、印度尼西亞、馬來西亞、緬甸、菲律賓、新加坡、泰國和越南。
為了更詳細地討論東盟貿易和外國直接投資，我將論文構建如下。第一章介紹了東盟貿易和外商直接投資的概況。第 2 章旨在衡量絕對和相對泰爾指數，以研究 2004 年至 2018 年期間東盟的出口集中度如何變化以及哪個成分具有關鍵貢獻。第 3 章著眼於東盟 FDI 流入和貿易的空間效應。第 4 章討論了 COVID-19 大流行對東盟出口的影響。
在本章中，我還將利用 2020 年 12 個月東盟國家及其貿易夥伴的新增確診病例數和死亡人數數據來展示供需兩方面的重大影響。輸出國新增病例增加，輸入國死亡人數增加，降低了東盟國家的出口額。論文最後簡要回顧了主要的實證研究結果，然後提出了研究的局限性和進一步研究的建議。
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was established to enhance the cooperation among the ASEAN members and other countries in economic, political, security, military, educational and sociocultural integration. It is composed of ten members located in Southeast Asia, such as Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Cohesion between the countries in all dimensions became tighter after Cambodia, the last member, joined in 1999. In particular, in 2003, at the 9th ASEAN Summit, the ASEAN leaders affirmed the necessity of an ASEAN Community.
ASEAN has reached a population of over 660 million in 2020 and covered an area of approximately 4.5 million square kilometers. Recently, the ASEAN economy is an important component of the global economy. It combines a gross domestic product of more than US$3.1 trillion and its share in world exports has reached 7% in recent years. ASEAN has also become one of the most attractive investment destinations in the developing world. The inward FDI to ASEAN has grown rapidly and reached over US$137 billion in 2020. One of the most important goals of ASEAN is to integrate the global economy and improve the competitiveness of its members. All the ASEAN members recognize the benefits of this integration and commit to further integration.
To discuss the ASEAN trade and FDI more in detail, I construct the dissertation as follows. The overviews of ASEAN trade and FDI are introduced in the first chapter.
Chapter 2 aims at measuring the absolute and the relative Theil indices to investigate how the export concentration of ASEAN has changed and which component has the key contribution during the period from 2004 to 2018. I also decompose the Theil indices into within-group and between-group components. The results show that the ASEAN exports tend to diversify and they are spread more equally across destination countries. In most cases, the inequality levels across countries importing from ASEAN within a subgroup (i.e. within-group component) play a more important contribution to the overall concentration levels. By separating the overall sample into several sets of subgroups by income and region, we find that for the countries in Africa and Europe, the high-income countries led the trends of the level of the ASEAN export concentration. However, for the countries in America, the non-high-income countries played that role. The results also show the gradual equality tendency across the ASEAN members in importing from ASEAN.
Chapter 3 looks at the spatial effect of FDI inflow and trade in ASEAN. I apply the spatial Durbin model (SDM) and the dynamic spatial Durbin model (DSDM) to examine the third-country effects of FDI and trade on the FDI inflow to ten ASEAN countries from 1999 to 2019. Empirical results confirm the significant and negative spatial impacts of the inward FDI and the one-period lagged export value in neighboring countries on the FDI inflow to the host country. It refers to the existence of competition in attracting FDI among the ASEAN members. However, it also shows the positive third-country impacts of the one-period lagged inward FDI and the export value on FDI inflow to the host country.
Chapter 4 discusses the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on export in ASEAN. I apply the difference-in-differences model to the exports of ten ASEAN countries over 36 months (January 2018-December 2020). The results provide evidence of the significant negative impacts of COVID-19 on the ASEAN export. In this chapter, I also utilize the data of the number of new confirmed cases and the number of deaths in both the ASEAN countries and their trade partners in 12 months of the year 2020 to show the significant impacts from both supply and demand aspects. The increase in the number of new cases in the exporting countries as well as the increase in the number of deaths in the importing countries decreases the export value in the ASEAN countries.
The dissertation ends with a brief review of the main empirical findings, followed by the limitations of the study and suggestions for further research.
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