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題名：氣候變遷對中國能源影響及最適配置之研究
作者：黃桂英
作者(外文)：HUANG, KUEI-YING
校院名稱：東吳大學
系所名稱：經濟學系
指導教授：邱永和
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2022
主題關鍵詞：EBM模型；動態方向距離函數（DDF）模型；零和賽局（ZSG）方向距離函數（DDF）；二階段共同邊界；外生氣候變遷；最適配置；非意欲產出；Epsilon-Based Measure (EBM) Model；Dynamic Directional Distance Function (DDF) Model；Zero-Sum Gain(ZSG) DDF；Two-stage Meta Frontier；Exogenous climate change；Optimal allocation；Undesirable output
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地球暖化的嚴重問題，近來已經引起各方重視，不只各國政府重視，包括科技巨頭們，雖然被環境專家質疑「科技減碳夢的力氣沒放在對的地方」，但仍然紛紛提出很多減碳計畫。因此，氣候或全球暖化的問題，已經從過去的感性訴求，逐漸進入到現今的理性數據比較。
本研究將過去大家所忽略的最高氣溫與最低氣溫之天數變化情形及降水量狀況，特別納入模型考量作為外生變數，並分別於第二章至第四章專題分析三大主題，評估全球最大碳排放國家（即中國）各省份的電力與能源之效率表現暨新舊能源與二氧化碳（CO2）之最適配置，透過氣候變遷作為外生變數，協助我們解讀效率影響情況，更盤點中國各省份新能源與舊能源的生產現況及二氧化碳（CO2）排放情形，透過本研究特別建構並首創的專屬模型，以掌握正確的改善空間，並提出具體的政策規劃建議。
本研究第二章係採用具有外生變數及非意欲產出的兩階段共同邊界EBM模型（Two-stage meta frontier EBM model with exogenous variable and undesirable outputs），在極端氣候「高低溫天數」影響下，以就業人數、電力消費、產業固定資產為投入，國民所得（GDP）為好的產出，二氧化碳（CO2）、直徑小於或等於2.5微米的懸浮微粒（PM2.5）為壞產出，並以區域因素劃分為東中部和西部，評估2013年至2017年氣候變遷對中國電力消費、空氣污染及所得效率之變化及其差異性。評估結果證實中國仍然過度傾斜地追求經濟成長的果實，嚴重忽視環境責任問題，並且幾乎可斷定PM2.5的管制政策出現嚴重破口，尤其西部地區有極大的改善空間，中國政府有必要全面檢討電力監管政策，並發現氣候危機係無邊界狀態，需由中國所有省份共同集體對抗。
本研究第三章係採用具有外生變數及非意欲產出的動態兩階段共同邊界之方向距離函數模型（Dynamic two-stage meta frontier DDF model with exogenous variable and undesirable outputs），在極端氣候「高低溫天數」影響下，以就業人口、能源消費、資本存量為投入，國民所得（GDP）為好的產出，二氧化碳（CO2）、直徑小於或等於2.5微米的懸浮微粒（PM2.5）為壞產出，其中資本存量也是動態跨期間（carry over）變數，並以區域因素劃分為東中部和西部，評估2014年至2017年氣候變遷對中國能源消費和環境污染的影響。評估結果證實中國能源消費效率低落，因此中國應該謹慎制定官方零碳排放長期計畫，尤其必須重新盤點西部地區的能源政策，也必須運用國家政策支持再生能源投資計畫，必須透過科技突破及查證特殊原因並導入氣候影響揭露，減少能源無效使用。
本研究第四章係採用具有外生變數及非意欲產出的動態零和賽局方向距離函數模型（Dynamic ZSG-DDF model with exogenous variable and undesirable outputs），在極端氣候「降水量多寡」影響下，以就業人口、資本存量及新舊不同能源作為投入項，並設定國民所得（GDP）為好的產出，但二氧化碳（CO2）、二氧化硫（SO2）、二氧化氮（NO2）為三個壞產出變數，在「單位國民所得（GDP）二氧化碳排放」降低18％及「可再生能源在一次能源消費增量中的比重」超過50％的中國「十四五」政策目標下，並假設國民所得（GDP）不變的情況，不同省份之間全部都維持效率極大化的前提下，重新分配二氧化碳、新能源、舊能源的各省份最適配置。評估結果證實中國仍較偏重經濟成長及舊能源發展，其中新能源效率更是嚴重低落，因此能源政策及二氧化碳等污染面政策都必須重新調整方向。
本論文研究證實中國西部地區的技術落差比例、共同邊界效率、各項變數的分項效率下之技術缺口受氣溫的影響程度，確實高於東中部地區；中國政府對於各省份的新能源、舊能源、二氧化碳的配額嚴重錯置，導致無效率現象。
但因為受限於研究時間及資料，目前尚無充分證據證明氣候變遷對各項變數在分項效率下的技術缺口影響趨勢，希望後續學者可以做其他更深入的統計檢定，繼續保持嚴謹態度並接棒持續研究「氣候變遷對於能源效率更多面向的探討」，例如：可以考慮氣候變遷對於能源各部門的作業影響情形，衡量網路系統效率，儘可能找出系統與部門效率之間明確的數學關係，將更有助於電力與能源後續系統效率之改進，才能避免只考慮系統之整體行為而忽略內部各部門之交互影響情形，造成黑箱模式之效率評估作業。
最後，考量碳權只是一個許可權，已不再是如同實體經濟所涉及的各項看得見的實體程序（例如：運送、通關、報稅）牽制的傳統經濟行為，因此法規面若不完備，將造成犯罪漏洞，也會造成不效率的市場運作機制，因此本文也提出碳權交易市場可作為未來的研究建議，尤其建議可以先針對2009年前後的歐盟碳市場交易作研究分析，因為歐盟碳市場曾經於2009年一度因為一連串詐騙案而緊急停止交易，藉此可分析其改革前後的效率變化，以作為中國已正式啟動全國碳交易後的政策調整參考方向，亦可作為臺灣及其他尚未實施碳交易市場國家的未來施政重要參考之一。
The serious global warming problem has not only attracted the attention of governments of various countries but also attracted the response of leading technology leaders, although experts questioned that "the dream of reducing carbon emissions by technology is not placed in the right place" but many carbon reduction plans have still been proposed. Therefore, the problem of global warming has gradually entered the comparison of rational empirical data from the perceptual appeals in the past.
In this study, the past literature ignores the changing days of the highest and lowest temperature and rainfall and incorporates it into model considerations as exogenous variables. Based on the analysis of three themes and the research content in Chapters 2 to 4, the efficiency performance of electrical energy and the optimal allocation of new and old energy and carbon dioxide (CO2) in various provinces in China are evaluated. Climate change is used as an exogenous variable to evaluate and analyze the situation that affects efficiency. To put forward specific policy plans and recommendations, the study counted the current production status of new and old energy and carbon emissions and mastered the DMU (Decision-making unit) the room for improvement through a specially constructed and innovative exclusive model.
Chapter 2 considers "high and low-temperature days" as an exogenous variable and uses the Two-stage meta frontier EBM model to incorporate the concept of undesirable output to explore the impact of extreme climates. To assess the changes and differences of climate change on China's power consumption, air pollution, and income efficiency from 2013 to 2017. In the study, the eastern, central, and western regions were divided by regional factors, and the number of employees, electricity consumption and industrial fixed assets were used as input variables. GDP was the desirable output variable, and carbon dioxide (CO2) and PM2.5 were undesirable output variables. The empirical results confirm that China is overly pursuing economic growth, ignoring PM2.5 environmental issues, and serious breaches in regulatory policies, especially in the western region, where there is great room for improvement. It is necessary for the Chinese government to comprehensively review power regulatory policies and collectively combat the climate crisis.
Chapter 3 is based on "the number of days with extreme temperature changes" as the exogenous variable, using the Dynamic two-stage meta frontier DDF model, where investment is the inter-temporal carry-over variable, to evaluate the effects of climate change on energy consumption and environmental pollution in the eastern, central, and western regions of China from 2014 to 2017. The evaluation results confirmed that China’s energy consumption efficiency is low, and Chinese officials should carefully formulate a long-term plan for net-zero carbon emissions. In particular, the energy policy of the western region must start from the national policy to support renewable energy investment plans, through technological breakthroughs and verification of emission sources, and the development of an information system that exposes the impact of climate to reduce inefficient energy consumption.
Chapter 4 employed the rainfall of climate change as an exogenous variable and assuming that all provinces in China maintain maximum efficiency, to adopt the Dynamic ZSG-DDF model to explore China’s 14th Five-Year Plan that reducing CO2 emissions by 18% and 50% renewable energy increase in primary energy consumption, the optimal allocation of CO2, new energy and traditional energy in various provinces of China. The results confirmed that China still places more emphasis on economic growth and traditional energy development, and the performance of new energy efficiency is severely low. Regarding renewable energy policies and carbon emission policies, the government needs to pay more attention to the direction of future development.
The research in this paper confirms that the technology gap, Meta frontier efficiency, and factor efficiencies in the western region of China are affected by the temperature, which is indeed higher than those in the eastern and central regions; The new energy, old energy, and carbon dioxide in China's provinces are in a state of inefficiency that is not optimally allocated.
As the limitation of research data, there is currently no sufficient evidence to prove the trend of climate change's impact on factors efficiency. Follow-up scholars can study more in-depth discussions of climate change on energy efficiency. Such as the effects of climate change on energy use in various sectors, finding out the relationship between system efficiency and inter-sectoral efficiency, and improving energy system efficiency. Avoid the interaction of internal departments' efficiency evaluation in the black box.
Finally, carbon rights are not traditional behavioral procedures involved in the real economy (such as transportation, customs clearance, and tax payment). Therefore, imperfect regulations will cause legal loopholes and inefficient market mechanisms. Therefore, this research proposes to conduct market research on future carbon rights trading, aiming at the EU carbon market before and after the 2009 suspension of trading due to fraud cases, and conduct an efficiency analysis after market reforms. China has officially launched national carbon trading as a reference direction for policy adjustments, and it can also be used as an important reference for the governance of Taiwan and other markets that have not yet implemented carbon trading.
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