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題名:美中競逐下東協國家的外交策略選擇與走向:戰略三角途徑之分析
作者:王力
作者(外文):Wang, Lee
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:政治學系
指導教授:宋鎮照
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2023
主題關鍵詞:戰略三角分析美中競逐疊加交纏複數三角關係東協模式strategic triangulation analysisASEAN wayU.S.-China competitionsuperposition and entanglementplural triangle relations
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本研究以2009年至COVID-19疫情爆發期間的2023年俄烏戰爭滿一週年作為觀察範圍,期間隨著美國重返亞太區域的力道增強,ASEAN—美國—中國的戰略三角關係也越易被人感受到不平靜和它的變動。本研究核心問題在於,ASEAN在中美競爭白熱化的兩極體系中,究竟會逐漸與美國亦步亦趨,還是會跟中國一唱一和,或是依舊能夠體現所謂的東協模式?由於原始戰略三角的模型中只從體系層次的權力分配去解釋三個當事方的互動,但忽略了不同議題領域對三角關係帶來的變化可能性,而本文嘗試填補此一學理上的漏洞,進一步說明不同議題領域可能存在疊加交纏的情形,此為本研究的主要創新。本研究分為三個部分進行,首先第一部分是核心問題的闡述,亦即從已有文獻及國際現勢的背景回顧與討論中,提煉出本研究之核心要旨;第二部分是透過理性選擇理論研究途徑,並在認識論上採取理性主義與經驗主義的觀點,進一步提出三項研究假設;第三部分則以南海爭端作為個案,對前一部分提出的三項假設進行驗證,包括東協模式和海洋法公約、爭端各方在南海問題立場及回應,以及ASEAN-美國-中國三邊關係展現的分析。研究發現,中美競逐下的ASEAN正陷入一種疊加交纏的複數三角互動之中,也就是它與中國互動的政策會受到它與美國關係的影響,反之亦然。不過,疊加交纏的現象並不只是那麼單純地存在於「ASEAN-美國」與「ASEAN-中國」之間,而是也同樣存在於「ASEAN-美國的安全合作」與「ASEAN-中國的經貿合作」之間。所以,疊加交纏既是合作對象是誰的問題,也是合作議題領域是什麼的問題。本文認為,這是一種在東南亞區域關係中獨特的雙元並存秩序機制,目前軍事安全由美國主導,而經貿議題是中國在帶頭前行。然而,這個秩序是動態的,若美中兩強未來的國力不再上升,甚或反而是下降,那麼ASEAN在三角關係中的相對位置就會上升,會越來越有空間與能力去和美中兩強議價,為自己爭取更多的戰略彈性。
This research is divided into three parts. First, the first part is the elaboration of the core issues, that extracted from the background review and discussion of the existing literature and the international situation; the second part is through rational selection, and adopting rationalism and empiricism in epistemology, further put forward three research hypotheses; the third part takes the South China Sea dispute as a case to verify the three hypotheses proposed in the previous part, including the ASEAN model and The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the positions and responses of the parties involved in the South China Sea issue, and the analysis of ASEAN-US-China trilateral relations. The study found that ASEAN under the competition between China and the United States is caught in a complex triangular interaction of superposition and entanglement, that is, its policy of interacting with China will be affected by its relationship with the United States, and vice versa. At present, military security is dominated by the United States, while economic and trade issues are led by China. However, this order is dynamic. If the future national power of the United States and China does not rise, or even declines, then the relative position of ASEAN in the triangular relationship will rise, and there will be more and more space and ability to cooperate with the United States and China.
Keywords: strategic triangulation analysis; ASEAN way; U.S.-China competition; superposition and entanglement; plural triangle relations
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