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題名：新型冠狀病毒(COVID-19)疫情對台灣與香港航運物流業財務及信用風險造成之影響
作者：蘇寶玉
作者(外文)：SO, PO-YUK
校院名稱：國立高雄科技大學
系所名稱：財務金融學院博士班
指導教授：魏裕珍
王嘉男
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2023
主題關鍵詞：穩健會計；應計項目；現金流量組成；財務風險；信用風險；Conservatism accounting；Accrual item component；Cash flow Component；Financial risks；Credit risks
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自2019年12月以來，新型冠狀病毒疫情(COVID-19)在全球蔓延後，對不同經濟體和產業產生了巨大衝擊，導致實體經濟活動萎縮。台灣和香港作為外生經濟體，自然不能獨善其身。2020年初在COVID-19疫情爆發後，各國政府開始實施停工停產、交通封鎖、人員後勤管控等防疫措施，導致港口嚴重擁塞，貨櫃、船舶、勞動力和物資短缺，也導致運輸時間表的延遲和供應鏈中斷。但隨著2020年底疫情緩和，製造業復工復產，經濟明顯回暖，貿易量激增，運力吃緊推高運價。航空運輸業中長榮、陽明、萬海等多家臺灣船公司也從中受益。
為探討COVID-19疫情對台灣和香港航運及物流業財務及信用風險的影響，本研究由TEJ資料庫收集了自2016年起至2020年共5年之研究樣本。依據兩地航運物流公司股票報酬率、現金流量組成與應計項目組成、公司規模、負債比率等，採用Khan和Watts(2009)提出之C-Score方法，探討兩地航運物流業公司會計盈餘穩健性差異。
實證結果顯示，台灣航運物流業報導好消息比壞消息快,香港報導壞消息比好消息快〭 疫情發生後，台灣企業無論會計保守與否盈餘質量都有所提升，而香港則因會計保守使得航運物流公司出現惡化現象，但非會計保守公司盈餘質量反而有所提升。這是因為疫情發生後，台灣企業積極運用盈餘穩定，採取積極的會計政策，讓台灣企業渡過了危機，並且成長。另一方面，香港通過COVID-19虛擬變數檢定結果則顯示並沒有受影響，為探究此原因，本研究再使用虛擬變數檢定研究期間樣本，發現香港會計保守公司的盈餘質量推估，主要是受到2017~2018年根深蒂固內部社會運動問題影響，從而使其盈餘品質惡化並非COVID-19。另外，臺灣穩健公司都不具有財務風險和信用風險，只有不穩健公司具有信用風險。而香港穩健公司和不穩健公司都不具有信用和財務風險。
綜合上述實證分析，本研究建議妥善管理公司會計政策和財務決策，可降低經營風險，改善信用風險等級，緩解融資約束。這將使企業能夠在突發狀況期間度過逆境而有所成長。
The proliferation of the COVID-19 epidemic all over the world had a huge impact on different economies and industries since December 2019, and resulted in the contraction of real economic activities. Taiwan, as an exogenous economy, also cannot avoid. After the outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020, governments of various countries began to implement anti-epidemic measures such as suspension of work and production, traffic blockade, and personnel logistics control, resulting in severe port congestion, shortage of containers, vessels and labour, as well as delays in shipping schedules and supplies chain disruption. However, with the moderation of the epidemic in late 2020, the manufacturing industry resumed work and production, the economy recovered significantly, trade volume surged, and freight rates were pushed up due to tight shipping capacity. Many Taiwanese shipping companies such as Evergreen, Yangming and Wanhai also benefited from it.
In order to explore the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the financial and credit risks of the shipping and logistics industries in Taiwan and Hong Kong, this study collected five years (from 2016 to 2020) data from the TEJ financial database of the two places, including the stock return rate, cash flow composition and accrual item composition, company size, debt ratio, etc. And used the C-Score method by Khan and Watts (2009) to explore the differences in the stability of accounting earnings of the industries of the shipping and logistics companies.
The empirical results show that for shipping and logistics companies, good news report is faster than bad news in Taiwan, while converses in Hong Kong. After the outbreak of epidemic, the earnings quality of Taiwanese shipping and logistics companies has improved no matter they are accounting conservative or not, while the earnings quality has deteriorated for accounting conservative companies in Hong Kong, but the earnings quality of non-accounting conservative companies has improved. This is probably due to the fact that Taiwanese companies have actively used surplus stabilization and adopted proactive accounting policies, allowing the enterprises to survive the crisis and grow against the trend after the outbreak of the epidemic. On the other hand, the results of the COVID-19 dummy variable test reveal that Hong Kong companies were not affected. Further, a Dummy (dummy variable test) method is used to indicate the earnings quality estimates of accounting conservative companies, shows that they were affected by the ingrained endogenous problems in 2017 vs 2018, then deteriorated by the social movement in 2019. Both accounting conservative and non-accounting conservative companies in Taiwan possess no financial and credit risks and only non-accounting conservative companies possess credit risk. Neither accounting nor non-accounting conservative companies in Hong Kong possesses financial and credit risks.
Based on the above empirical analysis, this study suggests that proper management of corporate accounting policies and financial decisions can reduce operating risks, improve credit risk levels, and ease financing constraints. This will enable businesses to grow through adversity during emergencies.
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