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題名：氣候變遷對經濟發展和環境永續的影響 -以歐洲的溫室氣體和循環經濟效率為例
作者：劉繁鵬
作者(外文)：Fan-peng Liu
校院名稱：東吳大學
系所名稱：經濟學系
指導教授：邱永和
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2023
主題關鍵詞：差額變數模型(SBM model)；氣候中和；溫室氣體；方向距離函數模型(DDF model)；循環經濟；國際氣候公約；Slack-Based Measures model (SBM model)；Climate Neutral；Greenhouse gas；Directional Distance Function model (DDF model)；Circular Economy；International Climate Convention
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摘要
經濟成長改變了地球人類的生活，後來人類的生活反而被氣候變遷所影響，全球暖化是現代生活經濟發展下產生的問題，世界各國必須盡快聯手減碳，離開這局勢險峻的氣候變遷，為我們下一代守住這美好的大自然。
歐洲曾經是全球工業發展中領先的一塊大陸，察覺了阻止地球氣候暖化的問題刻不容緩，因此歐盟在2019年底提出了<<歐洲綠色協議>>(European Green Deal)的行動，計畫成為全球第一個碳中和大陸的目標。藉由明確的行動藍圖來阻止氣候變遷，其前兩項的重點領域包含了:1.氣候中和2.循環經濟，本文要探討研究這兩項重要的議題。
本研究第一章緒論說明全球與歐洲的經濟發展和極端氣候的發生，歐盟提出了<<歐洲綠色協議>>來阻止地球暖化現象的行動計劃。
第二章氣候中和在氣候變遷下受到的影響-以歐洲溫室氣體效率為研究；探討到雖然歐洲的二氧化碳和溫室氣體排放量是有依照歐盟計畫中下降，但是氣候暖化的情形卻依舊在惡化當中；本研究動機是看到從前的文獻研究中，並沒有考慮以在氣候變遷下分兩階段對能源和溫室氣體階段做研究比較，因此本章做了在氣候變遷下能源階段和溫室氣體階段效率的影響探討。本研究有二點主要的貢獻發現，一是研究結果顯示溫室氣體階段效率不好，加上溫室氣體排放變數效率是各變數中最低的效率，顯示相較其他變數之下的溫室氣體排放是很無效率的；二是環保支出費用對溫室氣體排放階段沒有起到大的作用，且在氣候變遷下有較大的正向效率影響，因此有較大的效率改善空間。
第三章循環經濟在氣候變遷下受到的影響-以歐洲固體廢棄物循環效率為研究；探討歐洲的循環經濟，看過去學者的研究文獻多以在於解決城市垃圾和工業廢棄物回收循環的問題研究為主，沒有考慮到以氣候變遷下二階段的能源和循環經濟階段效率方面的研究；本章有二點主要的貢獻發現，首先是本文發現到氣候變遷下的第一階段的能源階段效率雖然有很好的達到預期，但是第二階段的循環經濟階段效率卻是很無效率。第二是廢棄物處理支出費用效率很不好，也是變數中最低的效率，且跟其他變數效率比較都有很大的差距，還需要更積極的去做改善費用支出效率。
第四章是環境經濟與國際氣候公約-整合歐洲溫室氣體和循環經濟效率研究；對兩項效率研究的實證結果做一下比較分析。結果相同的是第二階段效率都不好，大部分國家在溫室氣體效率和循環經濟效率階段都有很大的改善空間。不同的部分是在溫室氣體效率研究時，外生變數對處理支出費效率有很大的正向提升影響；而循環經濟效率研究時外生變數對處理支出費效率的影響並不大。
本文第五章最後針對研究結果分析，做了一些總結和對未來研究改進方向的後續建議。
Abstract
Economic growth has changed the lives of human beings on earth, which has caused climate change that affected human lives. Global warming is a problem arising from the development of modern life and the economy. All countries in the world must work together to reduce carbon emissions as soon as possible, pull that brakes on climate change, and protect this beautiful nature for our next generation.
Europe used to be a leading continent in global industrial development. It realized the urgency of preventing global warming. Therefore, the European Union proposed the “European Green Deal” at the end of 2019, aiming to become the world’s first carbon-neutral continent. With a clear action blueprint to prevent climate change, the first two key areas include Climate neutrality and Circular economy. This article will discuss and study these two important issues.
The introduction of the first chapter of this study explains the economic development of the world with Europe and the occurrence of extreme climates. The European Union proposed “European Green Deal” action plan to prevent global warming.
The second chapter is the impact of climate neutrality under climate change – research on the efficiency of greenhouse gases in Europe, which discusses that although Europe’s carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases emissions have decreased according to the EU plan, the situation of climate warming is still worsening. The motive of this study sees that previous literature research did not consider the comparison of energy and greenhouse gases as two stages under climate change, so this chapter discusses the impact of energy and greenhouse gases stage efficiency under climate change. This study has two main contributions. First, the results show that the efficiency of the greenhouse gas stage is not good. In addition, the variable efficiency of greenhouse gases emissions is the lowest efficiency among the variables, which shows that the greenhouse gases emissions under other variables are very inefficient.
The third chapter is the impact of circular economy under climate change – research on European solid waste circulation efficiency. It could be seen from the European circular economy most of the scholars’ research literature in the past focused on solving the problems of urban garbage and industrial waste recycling, and did not consider research on energy and circular economy stage efficiency in the second stage under climate change. This chapter has two main contributions. Firstly, this paper finds that although the energy efficiency of the first stage under climate change is well in line with expectations, the efficiency of the circular economy stage of the second stage is still very inefficient. Secondly, the cost efficiency of waste treatment expenditure is very poor, it is also the lowest efficiency among the variables, and there is a big gap compared with other variable efficiencies. Thus, much active effort is needed to improve the cost efficiency.
The fourth chapter is environmental economy and international climate convention – integrating European greenhouse gases and circular economy efficiency research, making a comparative analysis of the empirical results of the two efficiency studies. The same result is that the efficiency of the second stage is not good, thus most countries have a lot of room for improvement in the stage of greenhouse gases efficiency and circular economy efficiency. The difference is that in the study of greenhouse gases efficiency, exogenous variables have a great positive effect on the efficiency of processing expenditure fees, while in the study of the circular economy efficiency, the exogenous variables have little impact on the efficiency of processing expenditure fees.
Finally, the fifth chapter of this article aims at the analysis of the research results, and makes some conclusions and follow-up suggestion for the direction of future research improvement.
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