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題名:美國軍事介入臺海衝突的「戰略模糊」與「戰略清晰」對我國戰略利益影響分析
作者:王紹經
作者(外文):Shaw-Jing Wang
校院名稱:淡江大學
系所名稱:國際事務與戰略研究所博士班
指導教授:莫大華
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2023
主題關鍵詞:霸權戰略模糊戰略清晰美中關係臺海衝突HegemonyStrategic AmbiguityStrategic ClarityUS-China RelationsTaiwan Strait Conflict
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美國為維持其世界強權地位,面對中共國力持續在印太地區勢力快速崛起,與中共在臺海議題加大戰略競爭,導致美中均為日益可能發展衝突或戰爭,持續透過戰略溝通進行風險管控,此亦說明美國藉由印太戰略制衡中共擴張,並聚焦是否以軍事介入臺海安全之戰略政策與作為。
鑒此,本文主要研究美國因應中共勢力擴張,在印太地區採取「戰略模糊」與「戰略清晰」之辦證分析,並運用霸權穩定論的理論與實踐,梳理美國身為全球霸權、中共期望成為強權心態,以及美中戰略競爭目的、手段等,進而從美中長期戰略角力態勢,以及美國在俄烏戰事的戰略立場,提出美國軍事介入臺海衝突,影響臺灣戰略利益之想定、SWOT分析,並輔以《孫子兵法》中〈始計篇〉、〈九變篇〉做為我國應處作為之戰略思想脈絡。
一、研究發現
(一)、在國際政治現實的環境下,我國對美國投入資源甚多,合作關係更為緊密,然亦須考量邊際效益、我國在美中戰略競爭框架所扮演角色的限制,以及引起中共加大反制我國的影響。
(二)、臺灣必須體認美國係依據自身國家利益調整「戰略模糊」與「戰略清晰」政策,並謹慎應處中共對美臺關係緊密化的不滿情緒,避免美中因誤判情勢而使臺灣成為美國對中共的代理人戰爭。
二、研究建議
(一)、我國若欲維持有利的避戰環境,應以親美穩中為優先的考量,一方面持續從美方爭取政、軍、經等戰略利益,維持大部分資源與美保持緊密關係,並與國際社會結合,另方面避免與中共在主權議題互踩底線,並維持與中國,特別是人民方面相對良性互動,為臺海和平穩定關係奠基。
(二)、在美國「戰略模糊」與「戰略清晰」的重心轉移變化下,爭取臺灣最大戰略利益、避免走向戰爭邊緣仍是關鍵方向,本研究提供初步的觀察和探究,但相關領域仍然存在許多值得後續研究者深入探討的問題和挑戰。
In order to maintain its status as a world power, US faces the continuous rapid rise of the CCP’s national power in the Indo-Pacific region, and intensifies strategic competition with the CCP on the Taiwan Strait issue. As a result, both US and China are increasingly likely to develop conflicts or wars, and continue to carry out risk management and control through strategic communication. This also shows that US uses the Indo-Pacific strategy to check and balance the expansion of the CCP, and focuses on whether to intervene in the security of the Taiwan Strait with its military strategy and actions.
In view of this, this article mainly studies the analysis of the “strategic ambiguity” and “strategic clarity” adopted by US in the Indo-Pacific region in response to the expansion of the CCP’s power. Power mentality, as well as the purpose and means of strategic competition between US and China, and then from the long-term strategic struggle between US and China, as well as the strategic position of US in the Russian-Ukrainian war, put forward the assumption that the US military intervenes in the Taiwan Strait conflict and affect Taiwan’s strategic interests, SWOT analysis, and supplemented by the “The Beginning” and “Nine Changes” in Sun Tzu’s Art of War as the strategic thought line of what Taiwan should do.
1. Research findings
(1) In the context of international political reality, Taiwan has invested many resources in US, and the cooperation relationship has become closer. However, marginal benefits, the limitations of Taiwan's role in the US-China strategic competition framework, and the increase of the CCP must also be considered. Counter the influence of Taiwan.
(2) Taiwan must recognize that US adjusts its policies of “strategic ambiguity” and “strategic clarity” based on its own national interests, and be careful to deal with the CCP’s dissatisfaction with the closer relations between US and Taiwan, so as to prevent US and China from misjudging the situation and making Taiwan a America’s proxy war against China.
2. Research suggestions
(1) If Taiwan wants to maintain a favorable environment for war avoidance, we should give priority to pro-US stability and stability. On the one hand, we should continue to seek political, military, economic and other strategic interests from US, maintain most of our resources and maintain close relations with US and international relations. Social integration, on the other hand, avoid stepping on the bottom line with the CCP on sovereignty issues, and maintain relatively benign interactions with mainland China, especially the people, to lay the foundation for peaceful and stable relations across the Taiwan Strait.
(2) Under the shift of focus between “strategic ambiguity” and “strategic clarity” in US, striving for Taiwan’s greatest strategic interests and avoiding the brink of war is still the key direction. This study provides preliminary observations and explorations, but related areas still exist. There are many issues and challenges worthy of in-depth exploration by subsequent researchers.
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王高成,2021/10/25。〈拜登防衛台灣說 白宮未放棄「戰略模糊」〉,《雲論》, (檢索日期:2021年12月2日)
江昱蓁,2021/12/22。〈共軍已非農民軍 超大咖學者要華府認清3大事實〉,《中時新聞網》, (檢索日期:於2023年4月6日)
何清漣,2021/3。〈印太戰略:美國為何「川規拜隨」?〉,《SBS中文》, (檢索日期:2021年8月8日)
吳睿騏,2021/11/11。〈美議員團結束訪台行程 3天拜會蔡總統、國防部與台積電〉,《中央社》, (檢索日期:2022年4月21日)
李力昌,2012/3/14。〈訪談大綱的擬定與訪談應注意的事項〉,《深度訪談如何擬訂訪談大綱》, (檢索日期:2022年4月13日)
李忠謙,2020/9/11。〈中國「非和平崛起」的當然結果:第一島鏈「防衛原則」的全面鬆動〉,《風傳媒》, (檢索日期:2022年4月13日)
李書良,2021/11/17。〈習拜峰會建護欄 管控台海安全〉,《中時新聞網》, (檢索日期:2022年1月8日)
李海年,2012/2/14。〈習近平說“太平洋夠大 足以容下中美兩國”的深意〉,《人民網》, (檢索日期:2022年5月1日)
李環,2022/9/21。〈美對台政策走向“戰略清晰”?〉,《中美聚焦》, (檢索日期:2022年11月15日)
松田康博,林翠儀譯,2022/12/25。〈星期專論》只有備戰才能避戰〉,《自由時報》, (檢索日期:2023年2月7日)
林妍,2021/4/14。〈拜登派友訪台 中共跳腳 突宣佈實彈演習〉,《大紀元》, (檢索日期:2022年12月22日)
林序家,2021/4/14。〈衝著陶德訪台?中國宣佈未來6天在台海南澎列島實彈演習〉,《Newtalk新聞》, (檢索日期:2022年11月16日)
林政榮,2021/1/12日。〈中共最新《國防法》彰顯戰略從積極防禦趨向先制主動〉,《國防安全即時評析》, (檢索日期:2021年7月26日)
林朝億,2021/11/26。〈不甩中國抗議 美國會議員:美官員訪台將會成常態〉,《新頭殼newtalk》, (檢索日期:2022年3月6日)
邱國強,2021/11/24。〈民主峰會邀台不邀中 國台辦:反對美台官方往來〉,《中央社》, (檢索日期:2022年4月10日)
侯姿瑩,2019/5/27。〈李大維會美國安顧問波頓 斷交後首例〉,《中央社》, (檢索日期:2020年5月2日)
威爾(George F. Will),2021/7/4。〈華郵刊投書 籲美對台政策應從戰略模糊轉清晰〉,《中央社》, (檢索日期:2021年11月1日)
洪哲政,2021/11/1。〈國安局:兩岸關係短中期維持「冷和」〉,《聯合新聞網》, (檢索日期:2022年7月30日)
洪翠蓮,2021/3/4。〈布林肯:中國是唯一可與美國抗衡國家 隨時保持競爭〉,《Newtalk新聞》, (檢索日期:2022年6月12日)
夏明,2020/5/19。〈新冠疫情下的中美關係走向戰略敵人的對抗〉,《公民論壇》, (檢索日期:2021年8月6日)
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常思穎,2022/12/26。〈中美關係年終回顧與展望:大國競爭將走向何方?〉,《BBC新聞網》, (檢索日期:2023年2月2日)
張玉馨,2020/5/11。〈縱使疫情過去,問題也會留下〉,《風傳媒》, (檢索日期:2021年5月6日)
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張鎮宏,2022/10/24。〈二十大後「習近平集團」全面奪權,中共一人獨裁的未來會如何?〉,《報導者》, (檢索日期:2022年11月29日)
曹博凱,2020/10/10。〈美學界質疑「戰略清晰」 將落中共下懷〉,《上報》, (檢索日期:2022年4月25日)
梅復興,2021/6/22。〈美軍亞太兵力配置爭議:嚇阻中共,只有台灣需要「非對稱建軍」嗎?〉,《鳴人堂》, (檢索日期:2022年12月5日)
章祐方,2021/4/14,〈「拜登友人」陶德銜命訪台會見蔡英文 國台辦:騙人的幌子〉,《Newtalk新聞》, (檢索日期:2022年12月22日)
莫雨,2022/5/26。〈拜登亞洲行深化與印太盟友安全聯繫挑戰仍在〉,《美國之音》, (檢索日期:2022年12月13日)
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斯影,2020/5/13。〈疫情之下大行其道的中國「戰狼」外交會不會成為新常態〉,《BBC中文網》, (檢索日期:2022年12月11日)
曾復生,2021/8/17。〈2021年習近平國安布局與對美臺決策〉,《國政基金會》, (檢索日期:2022年7月25日)
黃瑀喬,2022/11/14。〈中共二十大之後,世界局勢將如何變化?〉,《公視新聞網》, (檢索日期:2022年11月29日)
黃肇松,2020/12/15。〈看美總統「友台排序」論台灣自強之道〉,《上報》, (檢索日期:2023年3月1日)
黃麗玲,2020/9/10。〈中國的反介入戰力有多強? 能否阻止美國協防台灣?〉,《美國之音》, (檢索日期:2022年5月11日)
楊丞彧,2021/12/10。〈今年迄今51案 美國會友台案爆炸性成長〉,《自由時報》, (檢索日期:2022年4月11日)
楊志恆,2023/2/23。〈印太地區國家唯有團結抗拒中國的擴張威脅才能和平穩定〉,《遠景基金會》, (檢索日期:2023年3月25日)
管淑平,2020/10/9。〈美國安顧問 警告中國 別想武力奪台〉,《自由新聞網》, (檢索日期:2022年6月28日)
劉少華,2017/11/29。〈「中國夢」提出五周年 偉大夢想迎接新時代〉,《中國共產黨新聞網》, (檢索日期:2023年2月9日)
蔡得勝,2020/7/21。〈兩岸若開戰 前國安局長蔡得勝稱台灣不能打、不禁打、打不贏〉,《ETtoday》, (檢索日期:2021年11月13日)
黎堡,2019/7/31。〈美軍高官:美國缺乏清晰策略應對中國灰色地帶挑戰〉,《美國之音》, (檢索日期:2021年6月22日)
蕭衡鐘,2022/4/25。〈美國對台戰略模糊與戰略清晰的爭辯〉,《騰訊網》, (檢索日期:2022年8月18日)
閻紀宇,2021/3/13。〈四方安全對話峰會:美日印澳領導人表明:不會對中國抱持任何幻想〉,《新新聞》, (檢索日期:2022年12月23日)
譚慎格(John J. Tkacik),2021/9/15。〈亞洲的霸權、結盟與權力轉移:中國崛起、美國「重返」與台灣的抉擇〉,台灣獨立建國聯盟, (檢索日期:2022年1月1日)。
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