複雜科學的發展，極可能將使人類社會再度面一次新的典範移 轉。政府部門在推動政府再造的過程中，除須分別從過程面與結構面 著手進行改革措施外，更有必要引進系統思考方法及系統模擬技術， 針對各項施政結果，事先進行周延的整體性評估，以有效處理動態複 雜系統所產生的問題，並發展二十一世紀創造競爭優勢所必須具備的 能力。本文以集集大地震賑災物資的運送過程為例，扼要說明複雜系 統的因果時間延滯特性，並介紹系統動力學對了解複雜現象所能提供 的協助。

The development of the science of complexity may provide a new paradigm that tends to have profound effects on our social life. In the process of implementing governmental reform, our government has devoted great efforts to reinvent its operational procedures and organizational structures. However, to effectively solve the problems in a system of greater complexity, it ?s also important for the government to employ systems thinking and computer simulation to evaluate possible policy outcomes before taking actions. . The ability of dealing with dynamic problems is assumed to be one of the necessary conditions for any government which intends to create competitive advantages in the next century. This paper briefly discusses the time delay between cause and effect in complex systems and introduces system dynamics as a method of illuminating complex phenomena by using the transportation of bottled water to afflicted areas after earthquakes as an example.