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題名:貿易自由化與國內、外畜禽市場價格長期均衡關係之研究
書刊名:農業經濟叢刊
作者:吳榮杰陳永琦 引用關係劉祥熹
作者(外文):Woo, Rhung-jeihChen, Yung-chiLiu, Hsiang-hsi
出版日期:2000
卷期:5:2
頁次:頁223-251
主題關鍵詞:畜禽產品貿易自由化市場整合單根檢定共整合誤差修正模型LivestockTrade liberalizationMarket integrationUnit-root testCointegrationError-correction model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(5) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:5
  • 共同引用共同引用:13
  • 點閱點閱:30
     本文旨在測試貿易自由化對我國與國際畜禽產品市場價格之長期均衡關係,以了解 貿易政策對國內外禽畜產品市場運作特色及價格間之相互關係與影響,並提供禽畜業有關問 題調對與改善之參考。文中以臺灣畜禽產業為研究對象,利用Engle and Granger(1987)所 提出的共整合理論(cointegration theory),採ADF、PP單根檢定法及Johansen-Juselius之最 大概似估計法檢定共整合關係,探討國內與國際畜禽產品長期間對因果關係或共整合情形而 為求實證之正確性,再透過Granger representation theorem對共整合模型加以修正,引入誤差 修正觀念,建構誤差修正模型(error correction model,簡稱ECM)作為實證應用模型。 實證結果顯示:(1)民國64-85年之國內與國際牛肉價格具有共整合關係,且其間具有反 饋效果,亦即民國64-85年之國內與國際牛肉價格具有長期之互動與調整關係。在短期方面, 民國64-85年之國際牛肉價格具有領先內牛肉價格變動之趨勢,但國內牛肉價格並無領先際 牛肉價格變動之趨勢。(2)民55-63年之國內與國際牛肉價格、國民55-85年之內與國際豬肉 價格以及民55-85年之國內與國際雞肉價格,均不具有共整合關係。 綜合而言,已開放自由貿易時期的國內牛肉市場與國際牛肉市場存在長期均衡的共整合 關係,亦即彼此價格呈現國際共移型態(international comovement pattern),而牛肉尚未開放 自由進口時期及具進口貿易障礙的豬肉及雞肉市場之國內、外價格均不具長期均衡關係,此 顯示貿易障礙的解除與禽畜產品市場共整合有正面的關聯,也隱喻貿易自由化對內外畜禽產 品市場整合具有正面影響,價格間的因果關係有確定的方向而促進空間的均衡,並使市場機 能發揮。
     The main objective of this study was to explore that relevance of trade liberalization and the market integration conditions between domestic and international livestock markets. By applying the theory of cointegration, we adopted Unit Roots Test and Cointegration Method to analyze the long-run cointegrating relationships between the livestock markets of Taiwan and the world. In order to increase the reliability of the empirical results, error-correction model (ECM) was adopted as the cointegration method. The empirical analyses revealed that although all of the livestock markets showed short-run relationships between the domestic and the international markets, and the international prices led the domestic prices, the long-run cointegrating relationship existed only between the domestic and the international beef markets. Since the beef market is the only livestock market exists on non-tariff trade barriers in Taiwan, that results imply that trade liberalization could help improving the long-run cointegrating relationship between domestic and international livestock markets. Also, it has positive influences upon the status of international market integration.
期刊論文
1.Choudhry, Taufiq(1996)。Interdependence of stock markets: Evidence from Europe during the 1920s and 1930s。Applied Financial Economics,6(3),243-249。  new window
2.Johansen, Soren、Juselius, Katarina(1992)。Testing Structural Hypotheses in a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK。Journal of Econometrics,53(1-3),211-244。  new window
3.劉祥熹、李崇主(20001000)。臺灣地區外資、匯率與股價關聯性之研究--VAR與VECM之應用。證券市場發展,12(3)=47,1-41。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Granger, C. W. J.(1988)。Some Recent Development in a Concept of Causality。Journal of Econometrics,39,199-211。  new window
5.Johansen, S.(1991)。Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Model。Econometrica,59(6),1551-1580。  new window
6.Engle, Robert F.、Granger, Clive W. J.(1987)。Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing。Econometrica,55(2),251-276。  new window
7.Dickey, David A.、Fuller, Wayne A.(1979)。Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root。Journal of the American Statistical Association,74(366),427-431。  new window
8.Jorgel, Urrutia、Malliaris, A. G.(1996)。Linkages between Agricultural Commodity Futures Contracts。The Journal of Futures Markets,16(5),595-609。  new window
9.Vredin, A.、Warner, A.、Jacobson, T.(1998)。Are Real Wages and Unemployment Related?。Economica,65,69-96。  new window
10.Dercon, S.(1995)。On Market Integration and Liberalization: Method and Application to Ethiopia。The Journal of Development Studies,32,112-143。  new window
11.Liu, D. J.、Chung, P. J.(1994)。Common Stochastic Trends in Pacific Stock Markets。Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,34,241-259。  new window
12.陳太郎、黃琮琪(1993)。降低保護程度對進口與國產牛肉之影響。農業金融論叢,29,209-242。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.洪德佳(1997)。貨幣供給及產品輸入與臺灣地區農工產品價格長短期關聯性之分析,0。  延伸查詢new window
2.徐維鑫(1998)。日本冷凍鮪魚生魚片價格之長期均衡分析-共整合模型之應用,0。  延伸查詢new window
3.楊政學(1996)。貿易自由化對臺灣毛豬產業衝擊之動態模擬:肉品需求體系連結畜禽供給部門之應用,0。  延伸查詢new window
4.廖秀梅(1996)。農產品市場間整合性與效率性之探討-以黃豆、玉米及小麥每小時期貨價格作分析,0。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Vousden, N.(1990)。The Economics of Trade Protection。The Economics of Trade Protection。Cambridge。  new window
2.Kitagawa, G.、Ishiguro, M.、Sakamoto, Y.(1943)。Akaike Information Criterion Statistics。Akaike Information Criterion Statistics。USA。  new window
3.Johansen, S.(1988)。The Power Function of the Likelihood Ratio Test For Cointegration。The Power Function of the Likelihood Ratio Test For Cointegration。Copenhagen, Denmark。  new window
4.Food and Agriculture Organization(1966)。FAO trade yearbook。FAO trade yearbook。Rome, Italy。  new window
5.彭素玲(1999)。儲蓄與投資之因果關係檢定-共整合誤差修正模型之應用。儲蓄與投資之因果關係檢定-共整合誤差修正模型之應用。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
6.行政院農業委員會(1998)。我國加入WTO因應對策答客問。我國加入WTO因應對策答客問。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
7.行政院農業委員會(1997)。牛羊產業白皮書。牛羊產業白皮書。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
8.行政院農業委員會(1997)。養豬產業白皮書。養豬產業白皮書。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
9.行政院農業委員會(1997)。養雞產業白皮書。養雞產業白皮書。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
10.行政院海關稅務司署(1972)。中華民國海關進出口稅則與商品標準分類號對照表。中華民國海關進出口稅則與商品標準分類號對照表。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.臺灣省農林廳(1966)。臺灣農產物價統計月報,臺北。  延伸查詢new window
2.曹添旺,林金龍,朱美麗(1998)。小型開放經濟匯率長期均衡分析-臺灣實證研究,0。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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