國防預算的決定，一直是很多學者所重視研究的範疇之一。其中，最 常被學者們採用的國防預算數量模型為「理性整體模型」。所謂理性整體模型是 指以整體的相關因素為考量，來決定其預算額度。其考慮期間較長，且注重政治、 經濟及國際局勢的變化對國防預算的影響。本研究亦延用此一精神，並加以考慮 採用國民生產毛額(GNP)、經濟成長率、國民所得與中共國防預算等因素，利用 單變量時間數列模型、轉換函數模型與動態迴歸模型等方法，來建構較適當的模 型。並探討GNP、經濟成長率、國民所得及中共國防預算對臺灣國防預算編列 之影響，以期能提供決策者參考運用。

　　　　　The determination of the national defense budget is one of the most important studies in a country. The most often used model is the rational comprehensive model. In general, researchers consider the rational comprehensive model including all related factors, and they pay attention to the effects of politics, economics and the changes of the international environment over the long run. In this paper, the univariate time series model, transfer function model and dynamic regression model are used to construct adequate models to help the decision-makers to determine the national defense budget of Taiwan. Economic variables such as GNP, economic growth rate and national income and the national defense budget of Mainland China are considered in the model construction.