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題名:需求不確定性對單期季節性商品完全資訊期望價值之影響
書刊名:臺大管理論叢
作者:李智明 引用關係
作者(外文):Lee, Chih-ming
出版日期:2001
卷期:12:1
頁次:頁229-248
主題關鍵詞:季節性商品需求預測完全資訊期望價值需求不確定性Demand forecastingSeasonal goodsEVPIDemand uncertainty
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:27
如何精確地預測並滿足顧客需求,向來為企業首要之工作。本文主要探討單期季節性商品的決策者,應如何訂定需求預測的合理投資金額,及市場規模和需求不確定性對此金額之影響。我們發現需求預測投資具有─上限,比上限金額代表需求預測所能產生之最大可能利益(完全資訊期望價值)。此外,當市場規模適中(不過大或過小),或市場環境變動愈大(需求愈不種定)時,因作出有效決策困難度提高,故需求預測十分重要。
How to satisfy and predict customer's needs is one of the most important jobs for a business. In general, the precision of demand forecasting is closely related to the effort or money invested in forecasting and the nature of demand. In this paper, we develop a simple one-period model to study how the decision-maker of a seasonal good production system to determine the appropriate amount of budget spent in forecasting. We find there is an upper bound of the budget invested in forecasting. This upper bound represents the optimal potential benefits brought by forecasting and is denoted as expected value of perfect information (EVPI). We also find that when market size is appropriate, the EVPI has a maximal value. However, when demand becomes more uncertain, the EVPI increases.
期刊論文
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2.Mantrala, M. K.、Raman, K.(1999)。Demand uncertainty and supplier's returns policies for a multi-store style-good retailer。European Journal of Operational Research,115(2),270-284。  new window
3.Lau, H. S.、Lau, A. H. L.(1996)。The newsstand problem: A capacitated multiple-product single-period inventory problem。European Journal of Operational Research,94,29-42。  new window
4.Chen, Frank、Drezner, Zvi、Ryan, Jennifer K.、Simchi-Levi, David(2000)。Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Simple Supply Chain: The Impact of Forecasting, Lead Times, and Information。Management Science,46(3),436-443。  new window
5.Khouja, M.(1995)。The newsboy problem under progressive multiple discounts。European Journal of Operational Research,84(2),458-466。  new window
6.Pfeifer, P. E.(1989)。The airline decision fare allocation problem。Decision Sciences,20,149-157。  new window
7.Gergoff, David M.、Murdick, Robert G.(1986)。A manager's guide to forecasting。Harvard Business Review,64(1),110-120。  new window
8.Gallego, G.、馮有翼(1995)。Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotion Fares。Management Science,41,1371-1391。  new window
9.Lau, Amy Hing Ling、劉漢城(1997)。Reordering Strategies for a Newsboy-type Product。European Journal of Operational Research,133,557-572。  new window
10.Kingsman, B. G.、Chan, C. C.、Wong, H.(1999)。The Value of Combining Forecasts in Inventory Management - A Case Study in Banking。European Journal of Operational Research,117,199-210。  new window
11.Johansen, S. G.(1999)。Lot Sizing for Varying Degrees of Demand Uncertainty。International Journal of Production Economics,59,405-414。  new window
12.Lo, T.(1994)。An Expert System for Choosing Demand Forecasting Techniques。International Journal of Production Economics,33,5-16。  new window
13.Petrovic, D.、Petrovic, R.、Vujosevic, M.(1996)。Fuzzy Model for the Newsboy Problem。International Journal of Production Economics,45,435-441。  new window
14.Wemmerlov, U.(1989)。The Behavior of Lot-Sizing Procedures in the Presence of Forecast Errors。Journal of Operations Management,8,37-48。  new window
15.Weng, Z. K.(1999)。Risk-Pooling over Demand Uncertainty in the Presence of Product Modularity。International Journal of Production Economics,62,75-85。  new window
圖書
1.Bowerman, B. L.、O'Connell, R. T.(1993)。Forecasting and Time Series: An Applied Approach。Belmont, California:Duxbury Press。  new window
2.Silver, E. A.、Peterson, R.(1985)。Decision Systems for Inventory Management and Production Planning。New York:Wiley。  new window
 
 
 
 
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