由於企業環境急速變動，業界及學界提出供應鏈管理之觀念與作法以因應之。供應鏈常受到生產策略及存貨政策之影響，以致常造成鏈上資訊扭曲，即稱為長鞭效應現象。長鞭效應現象之造成因素主要包括時間滯延、供應鏈階層數、存貨管理決策行為、批量生產及訂購、預測誤差、價格波動等；這些因素造成的結果都反映在供應鏈各階層的庫存量的變動上。本文旨在探討在MTS(Make-to-stock)生產環境下不同存貨政策，(s, S)及VMI (Vendor Management Inventory)，對供應鏈長鞭效應之影響。文中針對供應鏈管理中長鞭效應現象，如波動最高點、波動最低點、上波動率、下波動率、波動幅度、及波動回穩時間作分析。本研究採用桌上型個人電腦產業為對象。文中首先以系統動態學建置MTS生產策略之模型；模型效度的檢定記分四項：穩態測試、階梯測試、季節波動測試、及實際資料測試。之後，再以此模型模擬之。由研究結果發現：前置時間之長短與回穩時間及波動幅度有密切關係；此外，在終端銷售資訊共享之MTS環境需求突增之情況下，(s, S)存貨政策之回穩時間比VMI政策短，但VMI之波動較(s, S)政策低。

Since the rapid change in industry environment, the academic and industry proposed the concept and procedure to solve the problems of supply chain management (SCM). SCM is often affected by the production and inventory strategy and it has the information distortion. This is called bullwhip effect. The major causes of bullwhip effect include time lag, supply chain level, inventory decision, batch production and order, forecast error, and price fluctuation. The results of these causes will response on the inventory of each level of supply chain. The purpose of this paper is to study the bullwhip effect influenced by two inventory strategies, (s, S) and Vendor Management Inventory (VMI), under MTS production environment. In this paper, the bullwhip effects, such as fluctuation uppermost points, fluctuation lowest point, fluctuation stable time, upstream demand enlarge ratio, total fluctuation stable time and total enlarge ratio, are analyzed. The system dynamic models of the MTS production strategy are constructed, and the inventory strategies are expressed by the model parameters. The system dynamic models are tested by steady state test, step test, seasonal fluctuation test, and real data test. Then, the simulation results are computed based on this model in order to find optimal policy combination. Based on the results of this research, we can find: The length of lead time fluctuation stable time, and fluctuation amplitude have close relationship. Besides, Under MTS environment, for fluctuation stable time, (s,S) policy is shorter than VMI; but for fluctuation amplitude, VMI is smaller than (s,S) policy.